Sep 23 2010
The bad news for Dems just keeps on coming. If you look at the RCP House Map today you find the GOP with 206 seats in their lean-strong categories (click to enlarge).
This includes picking up 31 Democrat seats in the ‘leans GOP‘ and ‘likely GOP‘ groupings. As I have watched the polls shift right all year I realize the battle this cycle is not really in the toss up group (today showing a potential to pick up 37 D seats) but is actually raging in the ‘leans Dem‘ turf. When you combine the total number of additional Dem seats in play in these two groups you get 37 +28 = 65 seats in jeopardy.
This means 65 + 31 = 96 Dem seats are on the line right now. Which makes this poll data truly stunning:
We looked at the sample in the 66 Democratic INCUMBENT districts that Charlie Cook lists as either toss-up or leaning Democratic at the time of the survey. In that key crosstab of Swing Democratic Incumbent Seats, the Republican lead grows to 49%-31% on the generic ballot. That is a very powerful crosstab that says the wave is coming.
(H/T Ed Morrissey) RCP has 65, Cook has 66 – so close enough, I will go with RCP’s numbers.
I have been predicting a wipe out since February, but even I was not going to predict an 80+ seat take over by the GOP. But right now it looks very possible. Assuming the GOP loses the 3 seats RCP has listed in the likely Dem or leans Dem categories, then that equates to a possible 62 seat pick up across the toss up and leans Dem races RCP is currently watching.
If the GOP really is holding +18% lead in these districts, I can see the GOP picking up well over 80% of these seats, but let’s tone down our excitement a bit and go with 80%. That equates to a 50 seat pick up for the GOP, on top of the 31 Democrat seats already in the GOP column.
Shazam – an 81 seat pick up! I am truly amazed.
Update: Pew is out with another nail in the coffin of the current Democrat Congress