Sep 28 2010
I have never seen the like of this year’s election. I knew it would be brutal for the Dems, but how brutal continues to surprise even me. Jonah Goldberg at The Corner noted this PPP set of polling numbers which best summarize this year’s elections in their opinion – and they are jaw-dropping stunners (in reverse order):
The folks who thought the economy had gotten worse who had already decided how to vote in November are going Republican by a 92-8 margin.
So if you think the economy ha gotten worse there is no contest. Not even close. No doubt and no hesitation.
Now, how many people think the economy has gotten worse:
On our last national poll 49% of respondents said the economy had gotten worse since Barack Obama became President.
49% x 92% = 45% voting GOP. If the GOP is taking 20% of the remaining 51% who do not think the economy is worse then the combined GOP vote would be 45% + 10% = 55% GOP! That is a huge and unprecedented margin, and it would easily give the GOP a shot at an 80 seat pick up in the house and control of the Senate. But as PPP notes, that does not even factor in an enthusiasm gap:
Add in the Democrats’ enthusiasm issues and you have the formula for the big GOP victory that’s likely on the way.
Let’s say, instead of the huge 2-1 advantage we have seen in enthusiasm in many polls, we give the GOP side a tiny 10% boost in turnout. That would push the Dem side down to 40% and the GOP up to 60%. I just cannot fathom what an election would look like with those numbers cooked into the mix.