Sep 30 2010
Larry Sabato is out with updated projections for the 2010 election cycle and things keeping getting worse for the Dems. In the House, Sabato has moved 10 races from ‘toss up‘ to ‘leans GOP‘ – all of them Dems. Long time incumbent: 13 term Kanjorski of PA 11 is on this list, as is long term Texas-D Chet Edwards. Sabato’s other adjustments are all to the right: 5 seats move from ‘leans dem‘ to ‘toss up‘; 2 races move from ‘likely dem‘ to ‘leans dem‘; and 4 races from ‘safe dem‘ to ‘leans dem‘. Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the GOP already picking up 47 seats and taking the house – with plenty of room for that number to keep growing!
In the Senate and Governor races he has the GOP picking up 7-8 and 8, respectively. But the picture of the House is most telling, because it indicates a broad and high tsunami wave rising across the country. It indicates that underestimating or missing the voter turnout model by even small margins could mean pollsters are just not measuring the size of the voter backlash. With all these house races turning redder and redder in every corner of the nation, it is clear that November will be an election to remember for generations to come.