Oct 22 2010
Feel The Force – Get Out & Vote!
While the GOP still has the enthusiasm advantage, the Dem’s GOTV apparatus is also in full gear. Even with the GOTV gearing up, beating the GOP enthusiasm (more like angry rejection in this cycle) is hard to overcome. Emotion does not outperform process. It is the difference between running a play but failing to ‘win the line’ and running a play that blows open a game. You can go through the motions, but the energy level counts in determining the results.
Pew says it well in their latest bad news for the Dems:
The new survey does show some signs of the Democrats awakening. A growing number of Democratic voters say they have given a lot of thought to the coming elections and more say they have been closely following campaign news. However, Republican engagement continues at record levels, dwarfing even improved Democratic showings on these indicators.
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When the current survey is narrowed to those most likely to vote, the GOP holds a double-digit advantage – 50% to 40%. In early September, Republicans held a seven-point lead among likely voters (50% to 43%).
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Second, while the parties’ voter mobilization efforts are well underway at this stage of the campaign, there is no indication that Democrats are making more headway on these efforts than are Republicans.
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The Republicans’ advantage in 2010 is largely being driven by a swing in preferences among independent voters. Currently, likely independent voters favor the Republican candidate by 19 points (49% Republican vs. 30% Democrat). In November 2006, Democrats held a seven-point lead among likely independent voters.
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Republicans hold a 12-point edge among likely voters in the most competitive districts in the nation, and have a bigger lead in safe Republican districts (27 points) than Democrats have in safe Democratic districts (10 points).
Geraghty get’s the best line of the day:
It sounds like a movie line: “Your puny Stirring Democrats are no match for my Energized Republicans! Now witness the power of this fully operational Tea Party!”
Well, Obama did say the Empire was striking back! So its the Darth Sidius verses the Wiley E Coyote Party is it? Fine with me.
There has been some lose reporting from the lame-stream media (as usual) on early voting. CBS is out saying the Dems are leading in early voting.
While it’s impossible to tell for whom people are voting, Democrats so far are casting ballots at a faster clip than Republicans in Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina and Nevada’s heavily Democratic Clark County, which supplied two-thirds of the state’s voters in 2008.
Not true actually. Let’s check the data for NC. Here is the first four days of early voting in NC – where the Dems have an edge in the number of ballots (97,647 – 84,324), but they are not ‘leading’ in enthusiasm. The GOP is voting well above their registered voter percentage, while the Dems are voting right at theirs, as this running tally shows (click to enlarge):
The GOP is clearly more energized, they are voting 8% above their registered voter percentage. Moreover, since the GOP holds a lead with the Independents, the combination of GOP and Independent voters is 38.2+17.5 = 55.7%, which is clearly more than the Dems 44.3%. This is not isolated to NC. I also dug up some data from Colorado, which provided a one time tally of partisan early voting. Here is the comparison to the registered voter percentages in that state (click to enlarge).
Colorado shows a similar pattern to NC. Here the GOP early voting is well ahead of the Dems (+5%) and their registration level (+6%). But once you combine GOP and Independent voters there is no contest (63-37%). As Pew noted, resistance is futile (oops, now we have the Borg analogies).
In Maine we see a similar pattern with the GOP outperforming their historical early voting levels. The Force is strong on the right this year.
Given the fact these numbers are holding steady over many days of early voting, I don’t buy this Democrat surge stuff we are seeing in the polls. No pollster should ignore this data when tuning their turn out models. The enthusiasm gap is real. When you see pollsters moving Dems wildly and unexpectedly ahead in PA when nothing has happened to change the mood of the voters, it is clear there is some wishful analysis going on.
Let’s leave this post with Jay Cost’s predictions, where he is estimating a 62 House seat and 8 Senate seat pick up for the GOP. I want to get a few more data points on PA, but I will come out with my estimates probably before next Tuesday, and I suspect they will be more bullish than Jay’s.
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by AJ Strata, Free To Prosper. Free To Prosper said: Feel The Force – Get Out & Vote! http://bit.ly/9j2ZOy :: Strata-sphere […]
Everyone that I speak with that is angered by what is going on in government cannot wait to vote. Although the district I live in is a fairly safe seat for the House Conservative Republican John Fleming.
I would be willing to bet a lot of those early Democrat voters are voting against the party. It has to be the case, as a large number of centrists are moving away from the Democrats during this voting cycle.
Something that is happening also, is a measure of angst from the black population. (This is an observation on a local small town level, I am not claiming it is a national mood, but would not be suprised) Many blacks expected too much from Obama. They failed to factor in the realities of politics. The expectation was, “he is the President now, just listen to him and get out of his way.” Now they are somewhat disillusioned with him, but their anger is vented toward the Republicans etc., as they see it, the Republicans have foiled Obamas attempts to bring Utopia down to their community. If their voting turnout is fueled with anger it may be very high.
It seems that there is little hope that we could capture the Senate, other than Dick Morris,whose political insights I respect a great deal, no-one is giving it much of a chance. The ability to sent to the President repeals of Obamacare and forcing him to veto would serve a worthy purpose. With only control of the House such repeals will get stuck in the Senate.
So soon we will have the House, at what ratio remains to be seen, and a lot of hard plowing ahead, indeed guarding liberty should never relax. I hope the spirit remains high. Let’s not fall into complacency as we did post 1994.
AJ,
You missed the most important part of that Pew poll:
Only about one-in-ten voters (11%) say they have attended a campaign event this year. But that figure rises to 17% among voters who say they agree with the Tea Party. Tea Party supporters are more likely than either Republicans (12%) or Democrats (9%) to say they have attended an event. And nearly three-in-ten (28%) of those who agree with the Tea Party say they have visited a candidate’s website or followed a candidate online, compared with 19% of registered voters generally.
As someone on my e-mail list said:
I’m starting to see the Tea Party as something like Fandom for Conservative Political Junkies. A place to gather with like-minded people and talk all you want about things that your ‘normal’ friends tend to say ‘Give it a rest why don’t you?’
You get to meet celebrities, shake their hands, get them to sign books, ask the question you always wanted to ask (even though they can’t recall the exact words they said on that exact program the way that YOU can!)
.
(It’s one thing that’s actually making me consider attending an event. For now ‘I’m not a Tea Party Activist, I just read the damned books.’ 🙂
.
I don’t see it going away either. The power of that sort of social grouping once formed is overwhelming.
.
See also: DragonCon.@@
The Democrats out in California, in 1968, went out of their way to get anti-Vietnam war Republicans into the habit of going over to Democratic party activities by providing them a vehicle to express their anti-war political views.
Those anti-war activists were around in the California Democratic Party for two generations.
IMO, based on what I am seeing and reading, Tea Party activists will be around for at least two political generations inside the Republican Party.
@@ Dragoncon, for those who don’t know it, is the world’s largest pure science fiction fandom convention held in Atlanta every year. It is ‘officially’ about 40,000 strong, (it’s closer to 120,000 but the organizers say less to avoid fire marshal problems).
wws, have you heard anything new other than the early vote turnout? Today’s Chron says that the vote turnout is the same as ’06, which is unusual for an off-presidential election year. Predictions of 30 to 40 percent vote turnout have been broken and they refuse to predict anything at this point.
Haven’t heard anything – but one thing does occur to me, this watching of the early voting can tell you how the voters are registered, but it doesn’t tell you anything about how they voted.
Sorry to be repetitive but just came back from mailing in the 3rd absentee ballot for a shut in gentleman who is a friend and mentor. There are lots of folks who would vote if someone approached them in the Nursing Home, Assisted Living, or handicapped homes, college kids or just unengaged folks!
We really need to get out the vote and time is short for absentees! Take 2 to 5 with you to the polls it multiplies your vote and puts up a firewall against corruptocrat counting!
wws and trent,
Here is the link to early voting results for this cycle and previous cycles. Comparing this cycle against 2006, both being off-presidential election years, the turnout for 2010 is phenomenally high. But when comparing it against 2008 when Obama is on the ballot, 2008 numbers are higher. Perhaps this would be credited to the lack of African-American votes in Harris County?
wws, I was wondering today how the Democratic voters are voting! Many of them are disillusioned but so are the Republican voters.
Some of the states have the early voting results broken down by party affiliation but it doesn’t say how they voted.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2010.html
If you take a look at these numbers, you’ll see a higher turnout of Republicans.
Hottip: Jim Geraghty’s reader.
The LSM is setting the stage for voter fraud. By reporting that democrats are ahead in early voting they are providing cover for the criminals
I’m going to sleep all day on Nov 3rd. I’ve done volunteer work for both the Republican Party and a local Tea Party group going door to door in my community to do canvassing and passing out scorecards/flyers etc. I’m exhausted. I’ll be working the poll also. Hope I don’t forget to vote! LOL!
Very interesting video interview with two credible pollsters.
Video: Pollsters Say This Election is Going to be a “Huge Hurricane”
http://polipundit.com/?p=27109
There is some very insightful info to think about in there also (not just about Nov 2nd…..but, the day after.
I am not so interested in the total registration numbers as I am the NEW registration numbers. Of the voters that have registered in 2010, what is their affiliation?
I know a lot (well, 4) of people who hadn’t voted in years and years were going back to register this year and vote.
If I know 4 in my relatively small social circle, then the number must be huge.
CP, my graphs do show latest registration numbers (2010).
Oneal, I just realized you’re closer than I realized! I’m in Louie Gohmert’s district, which is just across the state line from Fleming’s. And I’ve got a pile of inlaws in Shreveport, so I get over there pretty often.
Ohio is a bellwether state, right?
GOP Turnout at Presidential Election Levels in Ohio
http://polipundit.com/?p=27125
excerpt:
The Hamilton County Board of Elections has done a good job of providing detailed early voting numbers for this election and referencing back to previous elections so we can properly compare where we’re at.
So far this year, 16,309 Republicans have returned their absentee ballots. 13,019 Democrats have returned theirs.
In 2008 with the same number of days to go before the election, 15,772 Republicans had submitted their ballots and 20,432 Democrats had submitted theirs.
In other words, at this point in time, more Republicans are turning out in Hamilton County this year than turned out for the presidential election at the same point of time.
And Democrats? Their turnout has reduced by 36%, or about what would be expected in a midterm election.