Oct 25 2010
While I await the latest Gallup generic ballot bombshell, I have some data to show in PA which looks to squelch the idea of any Democrat surge or tightening of races. It comes from two sources: the Morning Call daily tracking poll and the Early Voting tallies presented by Politico this morning. Everyone may recal the first Morning Call poll came out 5 days ago with much fanfare about shocking results – Dem Joe Sestak was in a 3% lead over Toomey. It seemed a bit far fetched at the time, and as the poll has played out in the last 5 days (not even a week yet) Sestak as lost 8% points and now trails Toomey by 5% (click to enlarge):
I will be keeping an eye on this poll for the rest of this week because if there is a trend here, it is a rapid movement of undecideds to the GOP candidate Toomey. Sestak is frozen in place and Toomey is rising towards that magical 50% mark.
This ties in nicely with one of the updates I have waiting on the early voting analysis I presented this morning. At the above mentioned Politico link we find data on the PA early voter partisan mix and how this compares to ‘registered voters’ in PA. (Note: Politico listed the 2006 and 2008 voter registration levels, which I added to my 2010 registration data). I still argue that a good showing by any party in early voting relative to their registration levels should indicate an energized segment of the electorate:
This graph indicates a blow out in the making in PA. The GOP has an overwhelming lead in early voting – a clear sign of enthusiasm. The GOP are way above their registered voter percentage. Note: this does not mean the GOP is gaining lots of votes or this pattern will hold through November 2nd, as explained by the man running an early voting site. However, when you see this kind of lopsided intent in what is clearly a pivotal election year, there is more than normal voting patterns at play.
When you look at the two independent data points (a tracking poll and early voting statistics) you cannot help but conclude there is a wave out in the electorate – the same one that washed up in 2009 in NJ & VA, and in Jan in MA.