Oct 28 2010
AJStrata’s House & Senate Predictions
I have put this off long enough, it is time to put out my predictions for Tuesday’s election. Sadly, my being burned in 2006 and 2008 by underestimating the anger of middle America with the GOP left me vowing to avoid making predictions in elections. That vow was never going to last. Actually, in 2008 I knew it was a lost cause well before election day, but decided not to dampen any enthusiasm by admitting McCain-Palin were not going to win. Both rounds were ‘teachable’ moments.
Since then I have tried to be objective and brutally honest. So here I go, without hesitation and fully aware that the middle America voters are not voting for the ‘true conservatives’ this cycle, but voting against rampant liberalism.
The Dems are in trouble because their centrists rolled over and let Obama, Reid and Pelosi run rampant. Obama is in power because middle American voters put him there in the first place – a big mistake everyone now sees. But mistakes can be fixed, and the voters are hell bent to fix their last one come Tuesday. (Point of order – I supported McCain-Palin in 2008).
I am not going to try and nail the most likely outcome to the fraction of a seat (like a Nate Silver does). That is a waste of time and not how to deal with this election. There is no precedent to this year, therefore historical trends are blinders on pollsters and statistical models this cycle – not a source of insight. This is that 1% case the stats know is out there, but cannot model. Gallup has been one of the few organizations willing to really let the data tell the story as it is:
Gallup’s latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year’s congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.
But even Gallup still assumes that party voters are monolithic and tied to party and not to something larger (like country). It is their Achilles Heel. While the middle America voters are rejecting the Democrats, they are not embracing conservatism (which they threw out of power in 2006 and 2008). This means people see this as a rejection of the Democrat leaders – which opens a lot of people to vote differently. Fiscal conservatism (a.k.a. a libertarian streak) is back in vogue because just about everyone agrees the federal government is way too intrusive and way too incompetent and corrupt. The liberal experiment of the last two years was an unmitigated disaster and forced everyone outside the far left to conclude big government is wrong and needs to be stopped – now. We understand that we need to rely on the American people and their strength, honor and diversity to lead this nation – not brain dead bureaucrats struggling to be God’s gift to humanity. The common ground from center left to far right is the feel we have a libertarian emergency.
Just as we banded together after 9-11 in common cause, we are forging a force to roll back government and return power to the people and the states. This transcends party lines, just as the core of the Tea Party does.
There are signs all over the place this race is going to be a wipe out. Predictions from nearly every objective corner see Dems losing 50 seats – or more. I put the number of Dem House seats lost in the 70-80 seat range. And with that large a wave, the Senate will go to the GOP too. The GOP will pick up WV, WA, and CA, along with PA, CO, NV, IL, IN, AR, ND and WI. That will be the easy part. I would not be surprised to see CT and DE added to the list – the anger with the left is so intense out there.
The reason this will be such a huge wipe out is because of three factors, two of which are well known:
(1) There is an ‘enthusiasm gap’ of enormous proportions out there. The GOP has never had such a wave of support in living memory. Yes, the GOP is energized to vote this year, and the Democrats are not. But that is only part of the wave.
(2) The voters are rejecting the liberals in the Democrat leadership, and this rejection includes independents and centrists. All pollsters show the party faithful being faithful – and voting 9 to 1 for their party’s candidates. This happens every year pretty much. What is different this year (and in all wave election years) is the center has decided to tilt heavily to one side. The GOP is holding a +20% lead with independents this cycle, which is why there are so many races in play. This is the second part of the wave.
(3) The final piece of the wave is Democrat defections. This is not being folded into the polling very well. I think most center-left Democrats are angry with their party for being so hyper-partisan and screwing up so badly that they are playfully telling pollsters they will vote D – when in reality they have no intention to. The center-left is as angry as everyone else, maybe even more so. They see their party becoming some alien monster right before their eyes. They are the true believers who were crushed when Obama turned out to be just another forked tongue, liberal politician. The Clinton and DLC wing of the Democrat party are going to send a huge message – and they are the ones who will be joining the center and making this historic.
It takes all three elements to create a super wave: enthused GOP voters, independents moving en mass to the GOP and center-left Dems defecting in droves. I think the nation is so fed up with our lousy economy and endless deficits they know there is only one answer, and that is to neuter the DC liberals and tie down Barack Obama’s ego. The center and center-left may have finally agreed to the libertarian element of conservatism – and that is a great thing to have happen. It is not a mandate for conservatives, it is an opportunity to join hands as Americans, vote the Dems out and start rolling back Big Government, and the Political Industrial Complex.
And that is why this election is one for the century.
Update: Weekly Standard article noting another way pollsters could be wrong.
AJ,
I hope you are correct and the Senate switches also. Historically, in the last 100 years, if the House switches then also goes the Senate. May it be so. Nothing would be more beautiful than watching Obama have to veto again and again repeals of Obamacare
I been very caucious, perhaps overly, about the inflated claims about the size of this victory because of the very efficinet urban democrat vote-buying machine, and the willingness to of the left to steal elections through fraud. Additionally, the internet echo can become very loud when you want something bad enough.
Let this all be over and done and move on.
Let Obama show the America Public that he IS the party of NO! The Americans will see how hypocritical they are by their attempts of painting the GOP the party of NO when they become the party of NO!
If next Tuesday proves to be a tsunami, both houses just might be able to get enough votes to override Obama’s vetos. Remember that many Democrats have been running away from Obama and ObamaCare in the last few weeks.
Plus the fact that Obama has become whiny in the last few weeks, for example, calling us misinformed and stupid, that isn’t going to go over well with us. He has revealed more of his ideology to us; no longer disguised.
I am still nervous about Perry’s odds. wws, did you see the full page ad about Steve Mostyn in last Sunday’s Chronicle newspapers? Texas for Tort Reform (or something like that) paid for it. What is worse as revealed by the ad is the obvious innuendo of his uncaring attitude towards his actions in spite of the fact that he confessed that those actions were unethical. All he cared about was that he got lots of money out of the settlement. Which, btw, he never talked to his client that he had settled.
Therefore, the fact that he is an unethical man who poured money into various Democratic campaigns and PACS should tell many Houstonians to consider their votes towards a local Democrat and White.
Oneal, it would be ideal see Obama proving to the American people just how unwilling he is and has always been to work with the GOP on anything. But it time to cut him down and give him a taste of American reality!!
Just came across this post from Hillbuzz.org that may tie in with A.J.’s post above. I’m hoping that it is credible. It is worth a read.
http://hillbuzz.org/2010/10/27/an-open-letter-to-rush-limbaugh-and-his-listeners/
Also,paraphrased from P.J. O’Roarke: This is not so much an election. It is more like a restraining order.
If these words had been put to pen much earlier in the election cycle, they could have been the tag line for the Tea Party. A.J., I pray to God that your analysis is right.
AJ,I hope you are correct, but I worry about the Senate. To many things can go wrong , but turnout is the biggest factor. I will never understand the liberal mindset. I am voting straight Republican.
I think the GOP will firmly win the house, and I’ll put my prediction at a 60 seat pickup. The senate will be very close but I will go for an 8 seat pickup, leaving 49 GOP, 51 Dem. The good news there is that Harry Reid
shouldwill be gone.The House controls the spending bills, by and large, so I’m looking forward to them introducing some fiscal sanity. Of course, even if both houses were in GOP hands, there will be a flurry of vetoes (and showdowns) with Obama. So expect gridlock, unless Obama gets Clinton-esque and tries to moderate (no sign of that right now).
Bee, Lucianne.com has the letter to Rush from Kevin of Hillbuzz.org (former Hillary supporter who now want to burn down the democrat party) on the Must Reads. It’s a great read, for those who haven’t seen it.
And Rush, who likes to call them the Hillbuzz Babes, has been working the Reverse Operation Chaos hard this week. And he has been talking about the Babes for over a year. I visit their site regularly because they have good insight into how these radicals in our House now think..and operate.
Swami predicts Alaska…
.
Murkowski 41% … A really good $land$ purchase… Got caught …
Miller 34% … A West Point liar who says …
“Vote for me… warts and all”
McAdams 25% … With a smaaalish upset chance…
.
There is a 50% chance that Swami could be wrong …
.
Today we are voting for Mr. Miller just to draw the Senate mood to the Conservative view… There is a 50% chance we change our minds by
Nov 2 …
.
We want to cry… Scott McAdams … won’t you please put an (R) by your name …? … We just refuse to vote for a (D) this year…
because of President Obama …
AJ,
See this NY Times poll:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/us/politics/28poll.html?_r=1
If women voters are breaking “R” like this:
In the case of women — a traditionally Democratic-leaning group that the White House has been courting actively in recent weeks — the shift toward the Republicans was marked in the latest poll, especially when compared with their stated preferences in the last Times/CBS poll, in mid-September.
In the earlier poll, women favored Democrats over Republicans by seven percentage points. In the latest poll, women said they were likely to support a Republican over a Democrat by four percentage points, suggesting Republican gains among women who were undecided as of last month.
Then you are seeing the Democratic voting base break Republican.
So, Trent what is wrong with Alaska? Joe Miller, who won the primary fair and square, is a good guy and I believe he will win but it should not be this close with a person who could VERY EASILY, based on her recent actions, become a democrat on Nov. 3…And she has made many republicans VERY MAD so how much power will she have if elected? Nada, imho. Electing her would be a total waste for Alaska, imho, and throwing away their power for the future.
Ive… I wasn’t going to bother you with details but here they are …
.
Best I can tell… here’s the facts …
Re: my comment the other day … I was wrong… Mr. Miller’s using other people’s computers IS a big deal …
.
Mr. Miller wanted to oust a man named Randy Ruedrich from his position as (R) state party chairman…
By voting against Mr. Ruedrich in an on-line poll …
.
Mr. Miller voted (4) times… by … using his own computer … then sneaking onto (3) other folks computers (without their knowledge) (at lunch hour… I think) … to vote AGAINST Mr. Ruedrich…
.
Mr. Miller ERASED the cache (passwords… history… stuff like that) on the other peeps computers …
(that is … clearly he knew he was cheating)
.
LIED when he got caught …
.
AVOIDED… filed a lawsuit to prevent this event from becoming public … Makes another self-serving statement … quote “…“I appear to be the only candidate in this Senate race whose entire life history matters to the media… “
.
FINALLY admits it yesterday…
.
Essentially now says…”Vote for me… warts and all…”
.
I say… Mr. Miller… Have you forgotten your West Point honor code … ?
.
I am USMC… This behavior is unacceptable …
.
Senator Murkowski got a really $good$ land deal…
………………..got caught … gave the land back…
Senator Stevens got convicted of a crime by a jury … (Voided by Judge because the prosecutors cheated )
8-9 politicians up here indicted or in jail for various crimes…
.
Welcome to Alaska politics … barf …
.
Do not worry about Lisa going (D) … She won’t … The bad would be Scott (my guy if you can understand that) sneaking in by Lisa’s splitting the (R) vote …
.
It’s an hour since Swami’s last prediction so here’s the latest …
Miller … 35%
Lisa … 35%
Scott … 30%
Election decided by one vote by an Eskimo in Naokak whose vote was flown in … the airplane crashed … Voter intent unclear and garbled and decided by a Supreme Court decision …
.
Swami is correct on approximately 50% of his 50/50 predictions up here…
The Electorate: seriously pissed off and looking for someone to maul with their empty wallets.
Oh, BTW: “Achilles Heal”?
Slap your spell-checker for me.
AJ:
Number three is happening because of number two. In 2006 the Dems won because the center rejected the far right and the Dems won independents big. In 2010, they lost the center by going too far left and the DLC types are mad as hell that their party could lose power from such a dumb strategy. If they can pin this loss on the far left then they could take their party back.
If centrist dems stay home or vote Republican that will tilt the Senate in WA, CA, IL and WV. Enough for the Republicans to win 10-11 seats.
If the entire Senate was up for reelection, the GOP would get it; but given the races at stake, it’s not likely. Possible, but not likely. The GOP is never going to get a veto-proof majority of both houses in any event; and as for stopping the Obama agenda (spending bills originate in the House, after all, as far as budget cuts and defunding go) while keeping the Dems’ feet firmly to the fire in order to run even more of them out of DC (including Obama in 2012), some have suggested that letting the Dems keep the Senate by the barest of majorities (preferably 50-50 with Biden forced to cast deciding votes, but with the GOP safely able to filibuster anything forever) might be better gamesmenship. If the GOP owns both houses of Congress, then both parties share the blame for the inevitable gridlock; but if the Congress is split the GOP can continue to blame the Dems and run another “throw the bums out” campaign in 2012 (when the Dem Senators who were elected in the anti-Bush swell of 2006 are up for reelection).
archtop: unless Obama gets Clinton-esque and tries to moderate (no sign of that right now).
I don’t expect any movement from Obama to the right; he’s more likely to try to work around the Congress as much as possible with executive orders and the entrenched bureaucracy. The GOP is going to need to fight; and any attempt by any Republicans to seek compromise or bipartisanship with the Dems (which always ends meaning that the GOP do it the Dems’ way) has to be squashed hard. They have to know that we’re watching them and that they’re on double-secret probation. This cycle a lot of RINOs faced (and some lost) primary challenges; any RINOs who don’t straighten up and fly right should expect the same in 2012.
Trent_Telenkoon: In the case of women — a traditionally Democratic-leaning group that the White House has been courting actively in recent weeks — the shift toward the Republicans was marked in the latest poll
You think maybe the Dems calling female GOP candidates “bitch”, “whore”, and so forth might have been less than warmly received by the female electorate? Open mouth, insert foot.
Lurker, re: your question about Mostyn and “Texans for Tort Reform”; didn’t see that ad since I don’t read the Chronic, but that episode is a very useful example to illustrate just what’s in play right now and what the *Real* motivations of the players are.
First of all, “Texans for Tort Reform” is nothing but Steve Mostyn (multimillionaire Houston tort lawyer) and a handful of partners from his firm. The honest name is “Texas Tort Lawyers for the REPEAL of Tort Reform.” They still HATE GWB for pushing that through a decade and a half ago, and they have been desperate to put someone in who would help them to turn it around.
I read an interview with Steve Mostyn a few months back, I think it was in a legal trade journal, and he was quite blunt about what he was doing. He openly estimated that his Houston law firm (it’s a big one) could earn an extra $100 million to $200 million in the first couple of years if tort reform were repealed, and he said that spending a couple of million now was well worth the chance, since he could afford it and he’d get a 100 – 1 payoff on his bet if it worked out. That’s Mostyn’s entire motivation – it’s based on a desire to be able to buy a huge new profit center for his firm. He admits it!
So why doesn’t the Chronic or any other MSM outlet report this? (like I said, the info’s been available to anyone for months) Simple – think from the point of view of the Chronic’s business model. Ad revenues and circulation are both falling, and that puts a big crimp in the budget. Perry doesn’t think much of papers, and doesn’t spend much money on them. A guy like Mostyn walks in and waves a couple of million in front of them and they fall all *over* themselves to make him happy. They are *desperate* for his money, and so they will *never* do anything to displease him, and certainly would never allow a story that would be even slightly critical of him.
They aren’t just sympathetic to him; they are co-conspirators in what amounts to a massive financial fraud on Texas residents. The saddest thing is that this isn’t even about ideology – they don’t really care one bit about that. This is about the Trial Lawyers, the Chronicle, and all their fellow travelers plans to rape the system for all that they can grab.
Cut to its core level, that really is all this race is about.
Ok, then I got the name of the conservative organization wrong. It’s the other one but the conservative group.
“The Dems are in trouble because their centrists rolled over and let Obama, Reid and Pelosi run rampant. Obama is in power because middle American voters put him there in the first place – a big mistake everyone now sees. ”
Excuse me, along with the rest of the Conservatives if we don’t thank all of you in the middle for finally coming to your senses and failing to see the mistake that is Obama. Anyone with a brain in their head that watched any news about Obama knew exactly what he was…but the wishy-washy middle wanted CHANGE!
Maybe all you Indies that flip-flop from left to right when your panties get in a wad wouldn’t mind forking over some extra cash to help pay for your little temper tantrum that the rest of us who knew better now have to suffer for.
This isn’t the first “mistake” the indies have made and it won’t be the last. You whine about the power hungry left and right, all the while patting yourself on the back for all the power you indies have.
If you all keep jerking this country back and forth, the whiplash is going to kill us.
I said it before……the pendulum swang hard left….it isn’t falling in the middle anytime soon…This upcoming election bears that out.
wws, it is this one: http://www.tortreform.com/
Texans for Lawsuit Reform (TLR)
http://thetruthaboutstevemostyn.com/
As a side note: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7267447.html – Poll finds Perry still outpacing White
As race for governor enters final weekend, Democrat fails to cut gap
wws, did you see that Sheila Jackson Lee contacted Eric Holder and DoJ to sic King Street Patriots?