Oct 31 2010
The context of this election is set. For the third time in 4 decades a Democrat President has pushed a liberal agenda via a liberal-led Congress and been smacked down by the voters. Carter, Clinton and now Obama have all followed a similar trajectory. For those on the left not getting the message – wait until Wednesday.
Carter is a well established disaster, who lucked into office after Nixon and Agnew resigned in shame and Speaker Ford rose to the presidency to give a needed pardon (to avoid what happened with the Clinton impeachment mess). Carter’s legacy was the rise of Ronald Reagan and modern conservatism. After Mr. Malaise-in-Chief the nation found its shining city on the hill through the optimism of Reagan, and the country flourished.
Clinton is regularly confused as a successful president because he limped through impeachment. But the fact is he was a disaster as well. He too lucked into office due to a quirky little 3rd party candidate (with a good core issue – deficits). Never achieving even close to majority support, Clinton helped bring on the rise of the GOP Congress – something that had not been seen in many decades. 1994 was a historic year in rejecting liberal command and control approaches to everyday American life. When Clinton came into office his party led both houses of Congress and were in the White House. By the end of it the GOP would go into 2001 with all three in their hands. Not a sign of success in my book.
Barak Obama was able to exceed Bill Clinton’s self destruction on many fronts. He racked up more deficits in 2 years than I think Clinton did in 8 (just guessing here). Clinton left office – thanks to a GOP Congress – with balanced budgets (he vetoed them twice over non-issues before capitulating before the upcoming election). Obama is looking at trillion dollar ANNUAL deficits as far as the eye can see. The Clinton-Democrat 1994 rejection happened during an economic growth period. And the lefty Hilary-care bill failed to be passed. The Obama-Democrat 2010 rejection is happening during the worst recession in a century, and Obamacare is a rallying cry about what is wrong with DC these days.
The Washington Post has the grim news for the Dems in a new election eve poll out today:
Among those most likely to cast ballots in their congressional districts, 49 percent say they side with the Republican candidate, 45 percent with the Democratic one. This four-point GOP edge puts Republicans in an even stronger position than they were heading into the final days of the 1994 election.
A narrow majority of likely voters, 52 percent, also disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job as president. That’s the same as the percentage of Election Day 1994 voters who said they disapproved of President Clinton’s performance, according to that year’s exit polling.
The WaPo/ABC poll is a complete outlier in terms of absolute numbers. The GOP is much farther ahead than the 5% they claim. But when comparing apples to apples, they are seeing the same environment that decimated the Dems in 1994. The Dems would be lucky if 2010 will be that good.
Everyone is predicting 50+ seat losses in the House for the Dems, with it easily going above 60. The RCP House data shows the Dems losing arouind 64 house seats, as more and more Dems districts sink under the GOP wave. RCP has the Dems at 171 safe or leaning seats and the GOP at 222. By these numbers the GOP has probably already gained 44 seats, and we have not even gotten into the 42 tossup seats.
One has to wonder, after being sent the same message three times, if the left will ever get a clue. They can’t spin their mistakes anymore. No one buys it. No one wants incompetent, corrupt and substandard big government solutions. Democrats get elected promising to be centrists, and then get whacked 2 years later for not keeping their word and being flaming liberals instead. After this third round of deception and rejection I cannot fathom very many Americans buying the Democrat BS anymore. If it is as bad as some predict come Tuesday, the Democrats will be in the wilderness for a long time.
Update: CNN’s generic ballot poll is out today and it shows pending disaster for the Dems:
The GOP’s 10 point advantage in the “generic ballot” question in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national survey released Sunday is slightly larger than the seven point advantage Republican candidates had on the eve of the 1994 midterms, when the party last took control of Congress from the Democrats.
Again, worse than 1994, by quite a bit. I may have to up my prediction of a 75 house seat pick up by the GOP.