Oct 31 2010
As Predicted, 2010 Will Make 1994 Look Quaint In Comparison
The context of this election is set. For the third time in 4 decades a Democrat President has pushed a liberal agenda via a liberal-led Congress and been smacked down by the voters. Carter, Clinton and now Obama have all followed a similar trajectory. For those on the left not getting the message – wait until Wednesday.
Carter is a well established disaster, who lucked into office after Nixon and Agnew resigned in shame and Speaker Ford rose to the presidency to give a needed pardon (to avoid what happened with the Clinton impeachment mess). Carter’s legacy was the rise of Ronald Reagan and modern conservatism. After Mr. Malaise-in-Chief the nation found its shining city on the hill through the optimism of Reagan, and the country flourished.
Clinton is regularly confused as a successful president because he limped through impeachment. But the fact is he was a disaster as well. He too lucked into office due to a quirky little 3rd party candidate (with a good core issue – deficits). Never achieving even close to majority support, Clinton helped bring on the rise of the GOP Congress – something that had not been seen in many decades. 1994 was a historic year in rejecting liberal command and control approaches to everyday American life. When Clinton came into office his party led both houses of Congress and were in the White House. By the end of it the GOP would go into 2001 with all three in their hands. Not a sign of success in my book.
Barak Obama was able to exceed Bill Clinton’s self destruction on many fronts. He racked up more deficits in 2 years than I think Clinton did in 8 (just guessing here). Clinton left office – thanks to a GOP Congress – with balanced budgets (he vetoed them twice over non-issues before capitulating before the upcoming election). Obama is looking at trillion dollar ANNUAL deficits as far as the eye can see. The Clinton-Democrat 1994 rejection happened during an economic growth period. And the lefty Hilary-care bill failed to be passed. The Obama-Democrat 2010 rejection is happening during the worst recession in a century, and Obamacare is a rallying cry about what is wrong with DC these days.
The Washington Post has the grim news for the Dems in a new election eve poll out today:
Among those most likely to cast ballots in their congressional districts, 49 percent say they side with the Republican candidate, 45 percent with the Democratic one. This four-point GOP edge puts Republicans in an even stronger position than they were heading into the final days of the 1994 election.
A narrow majority of likely voters, 52 percent, also disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job as president. That’s the same as the percentage of Election Day 1994 voters who said they disapproved of President Clinton’s performance, according to that year’s exit polling.
The WaPo/ABC poll is a complete outlier in terms of absolute numbers. The GOP is much farther ahead than the 5% they claim. But when comparing apples to apples, they are seeing the same environment that decimated the Dems in 1994. The Dems would be lucky if 2010 will be that good.
Everyone is predicting 50+ seat losses in the House for the Dems, with it easily going above 60. The RCP House data shows the Dems losing arouind 64 house seats, as more and more Dems districts sink under the GOP wave. RCP has the Dems at 171 safe or leaning seats and the GOP at 222. By these numbers the GOP has probably already gained 44 seats, and we have not even gotten into the 42 tossup seats.
One has to wonder, after being sent the same message three times, if the left will ever get a clue. They can’t spin their mistakes anymore. No one buys it. No one wants incompetent, corrupt and substandard big government solutions. Democrats get elected promising to be centrists, and then get whacked 2 years later for not keeping their word and being flaming liberals instead. After this third round of deception and rejection I cannot fathom very many Americans buying the Democrat BS anymore. If it is as bad as some predict come Tuesday, the Democrats will be in the wilderness for a long time.
Update: CNN’s generic ballot poll is out today and it shows pending disaster for the Dems:
The GOP’s 10 point advantage in the “generic ballot” question in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national survey released Sunday is slightly larger than the seven point advantage Republican candidates had on the eve of the 1994 midterms, when the party last took control of Congress from the Democrats.
Again, worse than 1994, by quite a bit. I may have to up my prediction of a 75 house seat pick up by the GOP.
Looks like the GOP has the big Mo! Good to hear – can’t wait until Tuesday!
BTW – if Sean Bielat beats Barney Frank (or even comes near to beating him), the wave will be titanic…
Now now A J don’t get to cocky 🙂
Agree down the line… One minor, nitpicky deal… Gerald Ford had been the House MINORITY Leader, not the Speaker when Nixon chose the Michigan Republican to appointed Vice President in ’73. You are correct that the Nixon-Agnew debacle helped Jimmy Carter “luck into the presidency,” but it was likely Ford’s pardon of Nixon that cost the appointed President the two points needed to win in 1976.
And we’re seeing MORE and MORE Perry signs up in the last few days. No new White signs!
Yay!
If Perry wins, Mostyn may be done, too. Who would want to give him service after this?
Swami is predicting Lisa Murkowski in Alaska…
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Some Miller primary voters.. eg May & I are switching TO Lisa… After learning more about Mr. Miller…
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Dems … I know several … will strategically vote for Lisa because they believe their (D)(McAdams) has no chance… (I think he has a smaaallish chance to sneak in under the radar if Miller/Lisa split evenly) ….
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Miller will retain his base … but I do not see him picking up very many extra votes …
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Lisa voters who stayed home for the primary are energized now …
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Lisa by a lot !
Yeah, a Murkowski win will make for some awkward moments in the Senate Republican caucus come January… But she’ll still be an “R.”
Toes, what are you smoking/drinking ?
When was the last time you typed in a password?
People WILL NOT ‘write in’ a candidates name.
If they didn’t ‘earn’ their name being on the ballot, people will not write them in. Ain’t gonna happen…
Sarah Palin said CBS News is ‘on tape’ plotting to make Miller look ‘bad’, you been watching CBS?
Also:
Van Holland was on Fox News Sunday this morning and he was sipping from a large mug. From what he was saying, I think the mug was full of Kool Aid.
Hi, Red… We shall see…
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Y… just heard our CBS station fools chatting… More than embarrassing … That is the station we like …
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I posted before… Joe Miller is a cheater and a liar … Lisa got a $great$ deal on land from a friend (gave the land back after being caught) … Senator Stevens convicted of a crime … Prosecutors cheated so the judge “voided” the conviction… 8-9 others indicted and/or convicted …
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The big haha … Our Supremes decided to get involved in politics and order the “write-in” candidate list be made available at the polling stations … so … 150 or so people immediately went down and registered as write-in’s for Senator (I’d have done it if I had heard of it) … I am going to ask for the list when voting Tuesday …
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btw… Joe Miller has registered as a write-in candidate as well… heh
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But… you know… our LOCAL people who man the voting stations… They won’t let you utter a single word about anything when you are at the Senior Center to vote … GOOD for them !!!
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I still would not vote for Lisa even as a write in candidate. Why? Because she is not going to fit in well with the new Congress. She is too moderate.
I still would prefer Joe Miller over Lisa M….uh…how do you spell her name, Sir!
Well… as a former Miller voter … I will be writing in Turdowski … or …
maybe … Porkcowski … to see if the Alaska Department of Elections can determine the “intent of the voter” …
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btw… Listening to the initial reporting on the station … Not sure what you southerners think a radio/tv station’s bumbling reporters have to do with Miller’s or Murkowski’s ability to represent Alaska in the Senate …
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I am pretty sure the answer is nothing … It’s just a Sunday scandal …
A couple more Alaska cheaters who got caught … sigh …
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Our hearts are still voting for Scott McAdams … (D)
Here is another little item to tingle up your cute little southern legs …
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Alaska write-in ballots are NOT even counted … unless… the TOTAL of the write-in ballots … needs to either EXCEED …
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all other choices …or…
come in second place by less than half a percentage point.
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Only then will the individual write-in votes be tallied by hand.
Absentee ballots from abroad can arrive up to 15 days after the election, so any count of write-in votes wouldn’t start until Nov. 18, said Gail Fenumiai, the head of the state Division of Elections, and the election likely wouldn’t be certified until at least …
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Nov. 29.
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304250404575558110863635970.html
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I have to go… It’s 4+ hours to the Ted Stevens Int. Airport in Anchorage … We need to get down to Florida and register there so we can vote for Marco Rubio … and … don’t ANYONE suggest that it’s too late …
Toes192,
1) What reason would Alaska Democrats, who are very much in the habit of voting against anyone with the name Murkowski, take the time to write in that name on a ballot?
Especially when they have Scott McAdams (D) to vote _for_?
The time to do the play games with cross over votes is the other guy’s primary.
Since you have not complained about that with Miller’s victory over Murkowski, it seems that Alaska Democrats don’t play that game. Which gets us back to..
Why should Democrats write-in a name they hate?
2) As for this comment:
“Not sure what you southerners think a radio/tv station’s bumbling reporters have to do with Miller’s or Murkowski’s ability to represent Alaska in the Senate…”
It makes me doubt you are either a Alaskan or a Republican.
Talk radio provides the only reliable counter programing to the MSM, and Murkowski silenced your only local Alaska talk radio guy during an election.
An Alaskan talk radio guy who has more than one run in with Palin.
And at the same time, you have the local Alaska CBS affiliate plotting how it will smear Miller with a charge of his campaign using a child molester campaign worker.
The gestalt of that taken together for Conservative/Libertarians is down right terrifying.
And Miller/Plain provides the easy response of straight ticket Republican voting as the answer.
Trent …
1) Kindly re-read my comment… I know (2) strong (D)’s who are doing just that … and … May and I are both switching … Just anecdotal … but that is (4) votes in little old Alaska …
btw…No one “hates” Lisa…
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2) Are you calling me a Liar…? Joe Miller is the liar … not me … so keep that slimy comment to yourself … If YOU have any guts… I’ll expect an apology …
but… True… the radio station has “suspended” their guy… Their smallish budget (Just an opinion) does not allow funds for a big $$ fight in court… shameful by Murkowski …
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3) So now you just suggest taking the “easy response” … that would REALLY be a chicken s**t way to vote … We voted for Mr. Miller in the primary as an … against the establishment protest … Then we learned more and more about him… I do not like this guy … and… I almost reflexively support military guys… Have donated to many of them (10+) … Mr. Miller is flawed… IMO …
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Here’s an example of Mr. Miller … Flyer we got in the mail …
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in BOLD … “Joe’s Plan to Protect Social Security” … I kid you not… that is EXACTLY what it said… Here’s the plan …
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“Stop Washington politicians from raiding the Social Security Trust Fund to pay for wasteful government programs” …
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which begs the question … but we’ll pay for “useful gov programs? … Y, I get it but terrible use of the English language …
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“Keep our commitment to seniors and those nearing retirement”
“Fix the program for future generations”
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So I turned it over to look at Mr. Miller’s “plan” … ahhh… NOTHING … NOTHING … Just a pic of an old guy with the statement …
“Who can Seniors trust to protect social security”
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So I hunted ALL OVER Mr. Miller’s site for exactly how he’s going to “fix the program” and “keep the commitment.” One would think he’d actually have something to say … Where is the “plan?”
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NOTHING… NADA … zippo … maybe my search skills have eroded …
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Mr. Miller says … “You have my word that I will spend my time in Washington fighting for reforms that will leave a sustainable future for generations yet to come! And I will fight to protect your Social Security and Medicare benefits in the mean time!”
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This is typical Joe Miller talk… Nothing specific …
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I have heard him time and time again … NOT answer a specific question… dodge dodge dodge … platitudes and generalizations …
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platitude … a trite, meaningless, biased, or prosaic statement that is presented as if it were significant and original …
In Texas, White spent the day frantically trying to get in as many campaign events as he could before the election. Perry canceled several appearances and instead spent the day in College Station at the Texas A&M – Texas Tech game. (Perry’s a vocal Aggie, btw, and the Aggies won big yesterday)
I think that says a lot about who’s confident and who isn’t.
And here’s a life lesson for you youngsters on lying …
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If… you never lie… you never have to remember anything …
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If… you lie… you have to remember it forever …
You go Toes. I vote early for Rubio 2 weeks ago!
I’m hoping Murkowski goes down in flames and exits the stage… I’m tired of the old empire. The Murkowskis are like the Tudors of Alaska…
Skirt… me too … We’d really like to get rid of Lisa as well… It’s just that Miller is worse (In my and May’s opinion) for Alaska …The disaster would be if Scott (be still my heart) wins by (1) vote over Miller … Us having cast (2) votes for Lisa …
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Is it possible for Crist to get negative votes … ? … Sure seems like that’s where he’s heading given his recent actions … Spent (3) months at Vacation Village south of Cleremont last winter… Excellent excellent …
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May & I have flipped more times than a Slinky coming down the Washington Monument … There’s still time for one more… but …
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZL6RGkPjws
AJ, I know it’s a wild wish, but my predictions are:
House – 95+ seats
Senate – 13 seats
Hey, a girl can dream, can’t she?
[…] smear – hotair.com 10/31/2010 Can’t anyone hang up a phone these days? more… As Predicted, 2010 Will Make 1994 Look Quaint In Comparison – strata-sphere.com 10/31/2010 The context of this election is set. For the third time in 4 […]
“In Texas, White spent the day frantically trying to get in as many campaign events as he could before the election. Perry canceled several appearances and instead spent the day in College Station at the Texas A&M – Texas Tech game. (Perry’s a vocal Aggie, btw, and the Aggies won big yesterday)
I think that says a lot about who’s confident and who isn’t.”
Yahoo! Since Perry was a yell leader, let’s do the “up yours” sign…”Beat.the.hell.out.of.White.and.Mostyn!” Woo-ha!