The situation in Egypt is not simple or clear cut. I have hesitated to write about it simply because it is complex, unstable and could result in a regional war if not handled correctly. It opens the future to two warring philosophies that have been roiling the Middle East since 9-11 and America’s efforts to instill peaceful democracies into the region.

America’s knee-jerk preference is, of course, democracy. We believe through freedom of individual rights you gain two very important results:

• Individual, family, local and regional financial success that translates into a productive and educated society that grows instead of stagnates.
• A calming of the human soul that comes from having the basic needs met, some worthy accomplishments under your belt, time to learn and gain some wisdom – all of which negates the urge for violence and hate.

The Middle East has yet to gain this serene balance so many in the West take for granted (and liberals risk through their endless and oppressive government edicts). Hosni Mubarak has been a solid and worthy ally for 3 decades. He has attempted to acclimate his people to the modern world in preparation for a transition from the Arab-Muslim autocracy to democracy. The problem is, Mubarak may have waited too long to see the fruits of his efforts bear fruit. He may have been waiting for that mythical ‘perfect moment’ where there is no risk in ringing in massive societal change.

ON FRIDAY, hundreds of thousands of Egyptians did something that the Obama administration, and many others in Washington, believed they would never do: They rose up against their government, demanding an end to President Hosni Mubarak’s autocracy. They overwhelmed the security forces that Mr. Mubarak deployed in an attempt to crush them; they defied a nighttime curfew even after Army units were deployed. They burned the headquarters of the ruling party in Cairo and in several other cities. By nightfall, it seemed clear that only two events could end their revolution: a massive use of force by the Army or Mr. Mubarak’s yielding of power.

The United States should be using all of its influence – including the more than $1 billion in aid it supplies annually to the Egyptian military – to ensure the latter outcome.

The people of Egypt have reached their tipping point. They want to move on from the 30 years of Mubarak’s rule and who could blame them. The risk is the opening now provided to Islamo Fascists like al Qeda and the Islamic Jihad (which evolved from Egypt). If America does not work to bring about a change to democracy, then the country could devolve into a center of Islamic hate and anger – one aimed at the West. Worse yet, with an educated and productive populace, along with their well trained and armed military, Egypt is a prize the likes of which groups like al Qaeda cannot ignore.

They will try to take advantage of this moment. Which is why the news from DC is so unbelievable and worrisome:

Yet, as so often has happened during the Arab uprising of the past several weeks, the Obama administration on Friday appeared to be behind events.

…

But U.S. statements assumed that the 30-year-long rule of the 82-year-old Mr. Mubarak would continue. After speaking to Mr. Mubarak, President Obama said Friday night that he would continue to work with the Egyptian president; he did not mention elections. Instead, in an apparent attempt to straddle the two sides, the administration suggested that the solution to the crisis would come through “engagement” between the regime and the protesters.

Once again we are painfully aware of the deep inexperience of our young and rash President. His White House is filled with liberal theoreticians with nearly zero real-world experience and contacts. Leading the pack is bumbling VP Biden:

“We’re encouraging the government . . . to try to engage in a discussion as to what the legitimate claims being made are, if they are, and to try to work them out,” Vice President Biden said in a Thursday night interview on PBS, adding that he would not call Mr. Mubarak a dictator and did not think he should step down.

Talk about your vacuous statements. The forces on the ground in Egypt are running full steam ahead and Biden is proposing committees and hearings.

The best way to hand Egypt over to the likes of al Qaeda is to disappoint the masses in terms of the West’s beacon of democracy – America. We cannot afford to align with Mubarak in hopes he stays on. It is a lose-lose strategy:

• Mubarak Stays: The protesters’ dreams are dashed and they blame America for not supporting democracy at a pivotal point in Egypt’s history. They become bitter and conclude democracy is just propaganda told to keep the American Sheeple in their place. They fall into the hands of Islamo Fascism.
• Mubarak is Overthrown: Instead of a peaceful and democratic change of government in Egypt the military and masses over throw the Egyptian government and radical elements name the common enemy of the people America and their puppet Mubarak. The pro democracy elements are purged in the after math and a version of Iran arises on the banks of the Nile.

Either way we lose an important ally and gain a dangerous enemy in the heart of the Middle East. We get the Jimmy Carter version of diplomacy, the worst diplomacy known to humanity since the days of Hitler and Chamberlain.

The window here is very small. The Obama administration must explain to Mubarak it is better to control the unavoidable and coming transition than lose the country to the dark forces of Islamo Fascism. Mubarak can still leave his mark on history and guide his nation to the future.

This was going to happen sooner or later. Mubarak is not immortal. It is just a question of seizing the moment.