Feb 11 2011
A New Future For Egypt As Mubarak Steps Down!
I have to admit I think events, timing and the US position on the turmoil in Egypt as been as good as could be hoped. Clearly the people wanted a clean slate for their elections, and did not feel comfortable with the old regime hanging around too long. This would have at least allowed the argument that the candidates and subsequent winner were the result of incumbent power (see Putin and Russia for the perfect example).
Mubarak and the military also did the right thing by taking their time in making these changes. They were not really chased out immediately, but did not try to hang on by use of force. The delay in stepping down has lanced a huge boil of frustration on the streets of Egypt. Now there is celebration for a new democratically elected government, which actually neuters the Islamicists.
I am optimistic that all the hand wringing by the far right is all for naught. Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood is a problem, but after assassinating two previous Presidents their credibility is probably not as broad as some fear. Whatever the risk, it is better to test democracy than throw it aside just because there are no guarantees (the old way of doing business in the Middle East). We have heard these cries of panic before in Iraq with the Sunnis, then the Mahdi Army, then Iranian influence – all of which never really came about. We heard it about Pakistan and Afghanistan. While imperfect and not the same as Western democracies (some of which in the EU America would resist to its dying breathe), we have to be positive and have faith in the essence of freedoms we cherish and defend to the death.
Democracy is beginning to spread in the Middle East. It was never going to be pretty or risk free or easy. It is why the fringes left and right feared the Bush doctrine. The jury is still out and will be for a decade at least. But there is renewed hope in today’s news.
In Egypt there are celebrations of a new hope, an undiscovered country and a new journey on the road of democracy. Don’t let the hand wringers and the doubters belittle what is happening. And I applaud the Obama administration so far. This is very risky business, but so far we have avoided a violent, Islamist revolution and a bloody dictatorial crack down. You could only expect more from Hollywood fiction.
I hope you are right. Mubarak’s resignation has effectively created two forks in the road: Republic or more of a dictatorship or worse.
The next five years will answer this question.
Some thoughts…….
Obama never voiced support for freedom especially when it came from an American. He was a “We should not impose our values on others” kind of guy. Think Iraq, think his silence in support of the Iranians shot in the street.
I don’t know if what has happened in Egypt will end well, the Egyptians have never had democratic governance. So the probability that is ends well is quite slim I would think. I hope we have an apparatus in place to help them out. Some should be in place after what we have done in Iraq.
As a strategic “friend” in the Middle East, I wish that we had been more careful of the words we used toward Mubarak. Humiliating a leader on a national stage should be beneath the great country that we are.
Nice positive post. Always good to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Either way, it is in the hands of the Egyptian people when it comes down to it. It is also good news that the military is still in control. I think it is hard to get a real feal for this revolution. There are signs of real democracy roots, and there are signs of Islamist attempts to push radicalism. I hope the Egyptian people can go slow and be wise in their reform. I am a huge supporter of the Bush Democracy Agenda, and always have been. Eqypt could fall into a dark place. We have to accept that possibility. But, if it does, the people will someday rise again (no people want to live under tyranny). Iran isn’t finished yet, either. If the Egyptians are successful at a peaceful reform that gives voice to the will of the people…..it could be another domino in the ME that leads the way for others.
David Brooks had a recent article on the strength of Egypt’s Institutions (the foundation of Democracies), and why Eqypt has a chance:
The 40 Percent Nation
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/opinion/06brooks.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
I hold out hope.
time to cue up “won’t be fooled again!” by The Who.
“Here comes the New Boss! Same as the Old Boss!”
I certainly was not in favor of Mubarak staying on, but it’s hard to understand the excitement over what amounts to a military coup. But then I’m cynical.
when martial law is lifted and the Army transfers some control back to civilian institutions, then I’ll see cause to be more optimistic.
[…] more… The State of Denial Address – hotair.com 02/11/2011 Avoidance. more… A New Future For Egypt As Mubarak Steps Down! – strata-sphere.com 02/11/2011 I have to admit I think events, timing and the US position on […]
I want to know what Code Pink was doing in Egypt. Whatever they are for, I am against.
I can only say that this post seems rather naive and seems to ignore history. Has the government changed in Egypt? No, the figurehead has stepped down but the military is in charge just as it has been since 1952. The MB has called upon the military to relinquish power ASAP so that a democratic election can sweep them to power.
The problem with a democracy is that the people can get what they ask for. That’s why we are not a democracy but a republic. The vast majority of Egyptians would welcome sharia which is antithetical to freedom.
While it’s lovely to think maybe the good guys will win this time, is that likely to happen given who the Egyptians are? Sorry but I think not. While I’m not a part of the right wing or a conservative, they appear to have cause for concern, as does Israel.
Let’s hope for the best for the Egyptian people. As Josh Block (AIPAC) just said on Fox, it took a year for the Islamists to take over after the fall of the Shah.
When hope meets reality……….Found at FREEREPUBLIC
Spengler: Chinese weather on Tahrir Square (Must Read)
February 11, 2011 3:25:29 PM MST · by mojito · 1 replies
Asia Times ^ | 2/10/2011 | David “Spengler” Goldman
….Egypt has no oil, insignificant industry, small amounts of natural gas, and 40 million people who are about to become very, very hungry. Without figuring out how to feed the destitute bottom half of the Egyptian population, all the talk of “models” is window-shopping. [….] What happens next? Egypt’s stock market has collapsed, and its pound has fallen to the lowest level since 2005, with some brokerage-house analysts warning of a 20% decline during the next several weeks. Foreign investors have deserted the market for Egyptian treasury securities, so the central bank will print money to give to the banks…
AJ,
have you heard of Kerensky in 1917 Russia or Bazargan in 1979 Iran?
As a student of history and, more importantly, as a political refugee from East Europe who has lived the 1989 revolution live on the streets there, I tell you that the chances of a civilized democratic society after Mubarak in Egypt, are low.
Less than 20%.
Your analysis of the situation in Egypt is very poor.
Just realize that the army is now in charge, and that the army, as the best of all choices NOW, has never been democratic, quite the contrary.
Two good pieces, one from Doug Schoen, hardly a “right winger”:
http://www.hillaryis44.org/
and another one from the blog Hillary Is 44, hardly a conservative site:
http://www.hillaryis44.org/
And Switzerland freezes Mubarak’s assets.
I understand that Mubarak called someone in Israel saying the same things dbostan said.
I’m not sure if one should take a step back or look with a magnifying glass for the results of the trouble in Egypt.
What is clear is that Mubarak has resigned and the military is in control.
But is that a good thing or a bad thing ? Who knows ? … and is it really any different ?
We now know that Mubarak has terminal cancer, so something closely approximating this would have happened before long anyway, so … what ?
The last time something like this happened in Honduras, the Obama Administration condemned it … but now, Egypt is in the “Hope and Change” rapture which we know will quickly be replaced with something much less.
“….but after assassinating TWO previous Presidents their credibility is probably….
Who? Which Presidents of Egypt did the Muslim Brotherhood assassinate?
Anwar Sadat? Not even close! It was Ayman Az-Zawahiri’s group, the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, who assassinated Anwar es-Sadat, via its memember Lt. Islambouli!
Ayman Az-Zawahiri himself has said he has no use for the MB, and though he was once a member, he left the group, and was disowned by them after he left. The same with Bin Laden!
Gamal Abdel Nasser had an assassination ATTEMPT against him, purportedly by a member of the MB, but that has never been proven beyond a reasonable doubt, and some historians think that it was a set-up, by Nasser, using an Egyptian Army operative, in order to give him a reason to crack down on the MB, which is not beyond the bounds or reason…
Don’t get me wrong, the MB is an international terrorist sponsoring/sympathizing, Anti-American/Anti-Western/Anti-Democray/Anti-Semitic group, that has spawned hundreds of legitimate Islamic terrorist groups, and is considered the leading Islamic theological “mother” group, of all of them, including Al Qaeda, if you will. Its been that way, since its founding in Egypt in 1928, by Hassan al Banna.
It has included among its members, some of the most virulent Anti-American/Anti-Semitic/Anti-Western/Anti-Capitalist Islamic Terrorists, of all time, to include, but not limited to: Hasan al Banna; Sayyid Qutb, Mohammed Qutb; Husain al-Husaini; Khairallah Tulfa (Saddam Hussein’s uncle); Saddam Hussin himself, Yasar Arafat, Sheik Ahmad Yassin, Ayman az-Zawahiri, Abdullah Azzam (former MB mentor of Osama bin Ladin); Osama bin Ladin himself; Yusuf Qaradawi; Omar Abdel ar-Rahman, etc.
It is has also been firmly esconsed inside the United States since at least the 1950’s, under a variety of from group, including CAIR, that use “Taqiyyah” to hide their real intent, which is to submit not only the United States, but the entire “Dar el Harb”, i.e., Non-Muslims, to either conversion to Islam at the point of the Gun/Sword, or submission to the Jiziyah or “poll tax”; but it completely incorrect, to say that the “Muslim Brotherhood” has assassinated even one, let alone two, Egyptian Presidents!
I will take a skeptical position. The same army that installed Mubarak after Sadat was shot is about to install the next leader. Mubarak made changes to the constitution just before he stepped down that put term limits into place, but the army has suspended the constitution and might demand another be written.
The army has a history of installing dictators. These weren’t riots for democracy, they were riots against Mubarak. Well, he is gone. The people aren’t exactly demanding any particular individual replace him. In fact, their entire demonstration has not be “FOR” anything so much as it has simply been against Mubarak.
We will see who gets the army’s approval this time.