Jay Cost at RCP noted yesterday that the special election to fill Randy “Duke” Cunningham’s CA seat did not bode well for Democrat hopes to retake the House this election year. Kudos to Jay because it seems the Washington Post agrees with his assessment that the poor showing by Democrats in a race ripe for taking from the Reps (corruption, shifting demographics, low approval ratings for Bush and Congress) points to the likelihood the Reps will hold Congress this year:

But Tuesday’s special election north of San Diego to fill the seat of former congressman Randy “Duke” Cunningham (R-Calif.) showed that the Democrats face an uphill battle to pick up seats even in districts where the Republicans have their backs to the wall. Democrat Francine Busby, running on a theme of ethics in government, finished first in a crowded field of 18 candidates to succeed Cunningham, who was sent to prison after pleading guilty to taking bribes in return for legislative favors.

Busby, a school board member and self-described soccer mom, garnered only 44 percent of the vote and was forced into a June 6 runoff, possibly with former Republican congressman Brian P. Bilbray, who finished second with 15 percent. State GOP leaders expect Republicans to coalesce around the eventual nominee in the runoff and retain the seat.

It is by no means a done deal in this contest, but as Jay Cost pointed out, the 44% number is about what Gore and Kerry got in their efforts against George Bush. The problem with all the supposed ‘factors’ in the race is most of them were fantasies to begin with.

First off, the scandal was Cunningham’s and his alone. The country which could not unseat a President for lying under oath in a civil trial is not going to run around and accuse people of being corrupt because a member of their caucus or party was corrupt. Look at Torricelli’s case in NJ. He had to resign late in the race and have Lautenburg yanked out of retirement (grumbling all the way) and it did not change the dynamic in that state. So the media-DNC myth about corruption is just not going to fly in this country. Smearing people without any basis just never works. It insults the intelligence and morales of the voters who KNOW what is going on.

Second, the low approval numbers. A conservative may not like Bush, his stance on immigration, the way the war on Iraq went and express that dislike in a poll. But no conservative would trade Bush for Kerry or Gore. The Democrats somehow think they are the lesser of two evils in some people’s minds. Well, I hate to break the news to them, but 20 years of rising conservatism and fading liberalism begs the opposite conclusion.

The polls simply show reality setting in on an impatient conservative base which naively thought everything would change over night once they had the reigns of government. Their frustration that things take time is focused on Bush – but deep down they probably understand changing the direction of the ship of state for 300 million people is not done in a matter of days, weeks or possibly even 4 years. The impatience is understandable. The idea the right would throw it all away to the liberals is what is moronic. People can see what they want in the polls, but the fact is people like the direction of conservative policies. It is the pace that is annoying.

Finally, the supposed anti-republican wave. It is probably a myth, and even if it does actually surface it has a cross current to deal with. The nation has left liberalism behind. The left needs to ‘move on’.

All the doom and gloom stories from the hysterical left have never come true. Babies are not starving in the streets, we have not tanked the economy and the Nazis have not risen again. These were all predictions that started with Reagan, continued through Bush I and have reached a never before seen level of ridiculousness with Bush II. You have to be completely unhinged to claim Bush ‘leaked’ intelligence in one breathe and admire JFK in the next because he got us through the Cuban Missile crisis – by displaying raw intelligence data and exposing our imaging technology. America cannot abide incoherence in our leaders. We deserve better.

Since the nation did not fall apart the left lost all credibility and the right gained a comfort level with America. Tax breaks have bouyed the economy. Education must show results to get federal money. We have replaced the emergency room with prescribed medications in Medicare and Medicaid (saving a lot of money). It will take years to realize the impact of these policies. But that is the wave building. The wave of conservative policies and their impacts. The media and liberals are kidding themselves. And since the media is almost 90% liberal, they are doing it in a very public and dramatic way. The media is entertainment and fiction – not reality. Dan Rather has very little grasp of reality. And we all know it. Well, those of us not in the media know it!  So we sit back and watch the liberal meltdown playing out in front of us.  But that is not a wave.  It is nothing but false hopes and unrealistic expectations being ‘reported’ by some fairly biased people.