OK, I have sworn off making predictions in close and dynamic races that confound conventional wisdom due to unique or rare forces at play. Case in point: Today’s election for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. It appears all nominal turn out models can be tossed out, leaving us the reality that we have no clue what the voters in Wisconsin will do today:

Governor Scott Walker’s budget- repair bill is stirring projections of above-average voter turnout across northern Wisconsin for today’s elections.

Superior City Clerk Terri Kalan expects voter turnout to be between 50 percent and 55 percent, much busier than typical spring elections.

“Average turnout is under 30 percent. The mayoral race, of course, is bringing people out. The justice of the Supreme Court [race] is really helping to push that percentage up, and then we have a couple City Council races, also.”

…

Although the State Government Accountability Board expects only a 20 percent turnout for this election, several areas are expecting 50 percent or higher.

Truth is Wisconsin is this week’s canary in the political coal mine. I lost the link, but it turns out there are as many or more Democrat Governors curbing union collective bargaining perks than GOP ones. It just happens the GOP is getting the brunt of the liberal press. But that does not mean the American voters are buying the PR spin. CA and NY as well as OH and WI and many other states are forcing unions to subsidize their perks. No more free rides (or at least a lot fewer).

Everyone agrees the unions are going to finally feel the recession as government spending is now many times the rate of revenues. In March the Feds spent 8 times more than they took in. “Unsustainable” is a bit of an understatement. We clearly do not have the money to provide lots of government workers lots of benefits. We either give a lot of workers lesser benefits or fewer workers lots of benefits. It’s the same simple math everyone is facing in these tight economic times. False cries of outrage from the left is not selling.

So what happens if Presser wins in WI? It will only be icing on a cake baked and being served across the nation. WI is the home of the union movement. That fact unions are even under minor siege in WI is testament to the political wave still crashing across the country. A wave built up over 2 years of out-of-control liberal governance and failure. A wave which swept out Democrats in historic numbers across all levels of government last fall.

The wave has not abated nor lost its energy. If Presser loses, it will be only mean the most unionized of states avoided fiscal sanity. Which in turn means fiscal ruin for Wisconsin. Even a Pyrrhic victory in this unpredictable election will only be a small win on one marginal battle field in a war the left is losing everywhere else.

No doubt, all eyes will be on the Cheeseheads this evening to see where the anti-left wave will peak this year. But they have lost so much ground I fail to see this as a real win, as much as holding their last strong hold.