May 24 2011
NY-26 is having a special election today to fill a US House Seat. The race has been over examined to death, with the latest poll showing a measly +4% lead in a race which has to be a toss up at the moment. But it will also measure the temperature of the electorate for 2012. Bottom line: this is a R+6 district which probably should not be (and may not be) in play.
The race had one foul element, a democrat who portrayed himself as a Tea Party candidate. That is going to roil this race big time. He is not crashing in the polls after being exposed as a dirty-trick-charlatan. The question is will his lying pull enough votes from the GOP candidate to sneak the Democrat in, or will he taint the Democrat and ensure a GOP hold.
One thing is for sure, polling in this race is all guesstimating.
My take is this. The political tsunami of 2009 (VA and DE governorships) and 2010 (MA Senate and the enormous November drubbing) has not subsided yet. Obama is tacking still further left and his policies are losing more and more ground by the day. Support for Obamacare, his liberal spending spree and the resulting mountain of debt has tanked. He is around -20% in all of those areas.
Moreover, the news trust in the news media has gone down the tubes with their anointed candidate: Now all the left-wing news outlets are in the crapper when it comes to public confidence.
In a stunning rejection of network news and nightly news anchors, cable news, driven by the Fox News Channel and mouthy Bill O’Reilly, is now the top most trusted source—by a mile.
In a new poll from Boston’s Suffolk University, more than a quarter of the nation says Fox is tops when it comes to who they trust the most and O’Reilly is the most believable.
I ain’t buying the O’Reilly standard – all this means is we have a long way to go to educate the people on how DC malfunctions. But this rejection of main stream liberal media has to be bleeding out into a desire to be polled in my opinion. So I actually expect the GOP candidate to win.
But either way, the test seems to be Medicare changes to save the program. And if they GOP candidate does lose, and it is because the GOP had the spine to propose fixes, then the answer is obvious.
The GOP better not run from the Medicare issue. Fixing that with market based reforms and rejecting the disastrous path Obamacare is on for our seniors is a test of the Tea Party values. In my opinion, the message from here to 2012 is simple and blunt, since most of the resistance to Medicare changes are coming from those excluded from the changes – those over 55 years of age.
If the GOP is hurting due to the Medicare position, then it is time to remind those over 55 they are excluded, and to let those of us under 55 to decide Medicare’s Future without their intervention. And I am serious here. The Baby Boomers have left an gaping economic wound on this nation. They piled up mountains of debt and ridiculously hopeless promises. They gave our freedoms away to nameless and faceless bureaucrats, and now they have their snouts in the retirement troughs.
Well OK then – suckle away. But realize we later generations would prefer a different future. So please let us decide for ourselves.