Oct 12 2011
It’s Herman-Time!
It looks like not only is the GOP field of Presidential contenders settled, so too is the likely GOP nominee and next POTUS. Herman Cain continues to grow in strength because of what he is not – a cautious career politician. Last night I saw both the liberal media establishment AND the GOP political establishment try and prop up Romney. It will not work.
This cycle it is anyone but Robamaney.
Herman Cain is really turning into a political force. As Rush Limbuagh noted, he is the anti-DC candidate:
Herman Cain doesn’t have a whole lot of baggage. Romney has Romneycare. Rick Perry has immigration as a problem. Herman Cain’s problem is, he’s not a politician. He’s not an establishment Republican.
Perry has flamed out. Romney is too similar to Obama. Gingrich, Bachman, Paul and Santorum are DC pols and Huntsman … He’s just weird.
Cain is the real deal. His 9-9-9 plan has a lot of draw. It does make everyone pay their fair share (a current Obama mantra). It removes all the special interest tax loop holes that irritate the middle class because you have to be filthy rich to exploit them.. It requires everyone to have skin in the game – a fair complaint from the right. It reduces the cost of compliance in terms of taxes (which means a lot of tax professionals will be looking for work – there is always a down side). I would trade all my deductions for a flat rate. The kicker is, the ENTIRE existing tax code has to go.
But more than that – Cain is not cautious and worried about what will pass a fickled Congress. And I predict his election will be so one sided he won’t have to worry about that.
The Democrats are facing their worst nightmare. First and most obvious (and most irrelevant) is there is no race card to play. But that is just part of it. The Democrats have survived on owning most of the African American vote. GOP winners usually only garner at most 12%. Cain could split the African American community right down the middle, finally breaking the strange hold of Democrat preferred victim-hood. Cain represent African American success – being an equal and being a winner too.
If the Democrats lose their hold on that voting block, elections will never be the same. They cannot survive without owning the African American vote.
So in Cain we have another cathartic candidate in terms of race relations, one who is also a successful business man at a time when creating jobs and growing the economy is priority number 1 (which means he knows a helluva lot more about this than the Community Organizers does), and a man with a simple populist plan that would actually work (unlike Obamacare). The best part he is also DC outsider. Where’s the negative?
Note to Cain: You will need a lot of insider help to slay the Bureaucracy (hint, hint) and you need to find folks willing to do that instead of save it. You need people who know how to get pass the spin, waffling, excuse making and use the rules to force a cultural change. It can be done. Some of us do it for a living.
I woke up today realizing voters don’t have to settle for something less than they want (like Romney, Christie or Perry). We have a good option in Cain. So my feeling is, its Herman Time! in 2012.
Update: As if we need anymore evidence, it seems Herman Cain now has a huge lead in Iowa:
Herman Cain has become the first choice of Republican voters in Iowa: he now leads the pack there with 30% to 22% for Mitt Romney, 10% for Ron Paul, 9% for Rick Perry, 8% each for Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich, 5% for Rick Santorum, and 1% each for Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson.
Update: Listening to Romney-ite Laura Ingraham this morning I realized how well Cain did. She spent over an hour trying to convince herself (1) she was not behind a single candidate and (b) Cain eclipsed Romney who is now in deep trouble. Ingraham’s struggle to not tip her hand and try to remain unbiased was humorous – and a complete failure. Her listeners seem to be more like me, thankful someone has finally arrived to push Robamaney out of the lead spot and remind the GOP establishment the Libertarian wave from 2010 is still out there and just as strong.
One benefit of the 999 plan or Fair Tax is that the federal government will never know how much money we make. This still does not take away your state tax code.
You saw the other benefit…everyone pays. I have no problems giving up my standard deductions for the 999 plan.
Plus no April 15.
Fair Tax or Flat Tax…I don’t care…just replace the current tax code with which emerges as the winner.
The GOP elites do not want Cain and Romney but they have nobody to push for so they may end up pushing Romney or Perry.
I’m reading that Perry is done. Bachman, too.
Be prepared to open your wallets for Herman as the Republican establishment has decided Romneycare is the guy to pander to independents and democrats who voted for OBlahBLah and he has deep pockets.
That plus the NE liberal states vote early and could put Mittens in the lead at the start.
I for WON can’t wait to see the WON debate Cain and try his race baiting, class warfare schtick on a successful self made black man.
The ultimate Affirmative Action hire taking on Herman the selfmade millionaire and former head of the Kansas City Federal Reserve will be priceless, get out your wallets and get ready to rumble!
“I would trade all my deductions for a flat rate. The kicker is, the ENTIRE existing tax code has to go.”
AMEN to that! I want a tax form I can fill out on a post card…
I have long believed that a very simple way for the government to get tax compliance and hence increase revenues manyfold would be to go to a flat tax for most individuals. I recognize that businesses are quite different and I would advocate have a separate (but simplified) tax code for businesses. But for me to spend hours every year trying to figure out the 1040 tax rules seems like a big waste of time.
I know the bumper sticker I want:
“We tried a fake black President, how about a REAL black President???”
I like that for the way it will make liberals start shrieking uncontrollably while their eyes roll back into their heads.
maybe I should get some printed up and sell them. hmmm….
The challenge as I see it is that in many states we have open primaries. The independents and crossover Democrats will vote for Romney over Cain.
Most of the polls are polling “Republicans” but that isn’t who votes in many of the primaries, particularly the primaries of the more populated states that have the most delegates.
Hey, that’s a great quote!
After reading the post-debate posts, good grief! The GOP establishment do not know what they want? They push for conservative principles; yet, they’re pushing for the likes of Romney. After all, they did push for Christie, didn’t they?
Now Christie endorsed Romney?
I won’t vote for Christie at this point unless he acts on conservative principles tomorrow. I’m glad he declined.
wws, I’m laughing because the race card is exactly as I predicted. Cain has to be on the ticket.
Interesting update about Laura Ingraham.
I really don’t want Romney to win the nomination but I will vote for him if he wins the nomination. Only because he’s the non-Obama. The country will ultimately not be happy with Romney, which will eventually destroy the GOP.
The GOP had better shape up or they will be done.
Both GOP and Dem “establishments” are looking at their own extinction and the fear is palpable in all of them. And this is good as there has been no competitiveness in the ideas coming out of DC, just a trade off between which group gets the spoils every other election. Cain represents everything that America stands for and can help complete the dialogue that the Tea Party has raised as to the proper role of government and individuals in this country.
I still like the bumper sticker
“In 2008, you voted to prove you are not a racist.
In 2012, vote to prove you are not an idiot”.
I like Cain a lot but he declined in my estimation somewhat when he mentioned Greenspan as a model for his pick for Fed chairman. That idea was rightfully met with some derisive laughter. Cain also didn’t do a good job expressing his economic ideas beyond mentioning 9, 9, 9 several times.
My guess is the only thing helping Cain at this moment is that few saw his debate performance last night on Bloomberg TV. Most probably saw Tim Allen’s new show.
Excellent article. I fully agree.
Furthermore, if Cain would announce that he will put together a very competent cabinet (Palin at Energy or Interior, Ron Paul at Treasury, Giuliani or Andrew McCarthy at Justice, Trump at Commerce and Bolton at State and so forth) he will be unstoppable.
Cain, not Romney, is now the favorite to win the GOP nomination
http://dailycaller.com/2011/10/11/cain-not-romney-is-now-the-favorite-to-win-the-gop-nomination/?print=1
and,
Is Romney a sure thing? All signs point in that direction, but the numbers tell a different story…
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/12/8285456-first-thoughts-is-romney-a-sure-thing
I believe Romney will not only win the Republican nomination and the Presidency, I believe that he will be elected by Democrats who can not force themselves to cast their ballot for another Obama term, will cast Republican ballots in their state primaries where they are allowed to, and will vote Romney in the general election.
Cain leads nationally
Yesterday PPP released numbers showing Herman Cain leading Mitt Romney 30-22 in Iowa and our monthly look at the national picture finds the exact same numbers. Cain is up 30-22 on Romney with Newt Gingrich sneaking past Rick Perry for 3rd place at 15% to Perry’s 14% with Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/cain-leads-nationally.html
Cain still surging — second poll has him in the lead nationally (this poll also done before last night’s debate):
NBC/WSJ poll: Cain now leads GOP pack
Results from just-released NBC/WSJ poll of GOP voters: Herman Cain (27 percent), Mitt Romney (23 percent), Rick Perry (16 percent), Ron Paul (11 percent), Newt Gingrich (8 percent), Michele Bachmann (5 percent), Jon Huntsman (3 percent), and Rick Santorum (1 percent). Five percent remain unsure.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44881446/ns/politics-decision_2012/'%20rel='nofollow
More analysis on that PPP poll by Don Surber:
But wait. It gets better for Cainiacs when we consider favorable/unfavorable numbers.
Cain 66%/15%
Romney 55%/31%
Gingrich 57%/30%
Perry 42%/38%
Bachmann 41%/39%
Ron Paul 29%/54%
Did I say better? It gets even better than better for Cainiacs. Asked who their second choice is, it was:
Cain 24%
Gingrich 15%
Romney 12%
Perry 10%
The combined totals for first and second are:
Cain 54%
Romney 34%
Gingrich 30%
Perry 24%
http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/44256#more-44256
“We tried a fake black President, how about a REAL black President???”
I would be so happy to put that on my car WWS. Best laugh all day!!!!!!!!
I think you’re too pessimistic about the primary’s, Crosspatch. I live where voters are allowed to choose which primary to participate in, and I think the system works very well. The problem with closed primaries is that it completely disenfranchises independents, by not allowing them to have a say in either party’s nominating process. The party’s love that, but I don’t believe it serves our democracy well. Allowing independents to participate invites them to feel invested in the process, and voters who have invested time in a primary are *far* more likely to vote in the general – and they *always* strongly tend to vote for the party who’s primary they voted in, even if they’re independent.
A few people may try to change parties just to vote for someone they don’t like, but although that is talked about all the time, it just doesn’t happen much. And this year, democrats aren’t going to vote in GOP primaries; they’re just going to get depressed and not vote at all.
Inviting independents to participate in your primary is the path to bringing them on board with your party – and independents are the key to this next election, and every election after.
Finally,Trust them! A good, strong candidate can appeal to them! The honest people you invite in are always going to outnumber the people who want to do something malicious. The people who take the time to show up and vote in a primary are those who have been inspired to action by a strong candidate, and that’s the kind of person who deserves to win. If that’s Romney, then so be it – but I just don’t think he can inspire that way. Cain, on the other hand…
just fyi, how the Texas system works; the State doesn’t keep track of who’s in each party, so you just designate which party’s primary you want to vote in and your voting card gets stamped for that year when you go to vote. (only fair, so no one can vote in both party primary’s) Then you get to vote in that party’s runoff, if necessary. After each general election, everything gets reset till the next time. If you want to officially join the Dems or the Reps, fine, but that’s just info for their fundraising letters, the State doesn’t bother with that info.
It works remarkably well, and I like it a lot – as do the vast majority of the voters who live here. It certainly has *never* stopped conservative candidates from winning here!
That’s pretty much how it works here in California. You walk in to the polling place, they cross your name off in the book, you ask for either a Republican or a Democrat ballot and vote and leave. They don’t care what party you are registered.
Hillary Clinton supporters from 2008 will likely vote Romney as will a lot of Independents. Republicans will probably vote mostly Cain or Perry but I think they will be swamped out by the crossover Democrats and the Independents.
In the general it will be Romney by a good margin, I think, because the economy looks like it is poised for another nosedive just in time for primary season.
I think you’re right about the economy being poised for another nosedive – but I *don’t* think that necessarily benefits Romney over the other candidates.
First, look back at 2008: the reason McCain was hurt by a crashing economy was because he was the Republican candidate, Republicans had held the Presidency for 8 years, and it’s just the unfairness of life that they were blamed and he was held guilty by association. That’s unfair, but that’s the way it is – when things go south, the party in power is going to be blamed. That dynamic works against Obama this time, no matter how much the papers and MSM try to stop it. They will try, but not enough people listen to them anymore.
(even in California, when the massive mandatory cuts start in a couple of months and your economy takes a dive from the extra unemployment, Californians aren’t going to have to admit that they have done this to themselves. California is in a Greece-type situation now – financial collapse on a state-wide level is now guaranteed)
SO which candidate benefits from a cratering economy? Romney and Perry are both making the same mistake, which is resting on the laurels of past achievements. The fact that they both have good economic records *leads* people to believe they would do well in the future, but it doesn’t seal the deal. (and Romney’s record is his biggest problem because of Romneycare)
Yes, a good economic record helps – but the candidate with a good record has to have a plan to pitch to the voters, a message that says “here’s what I did in the past, and HERE is what I will do in the future, and THIS is how it will make things better.” I remember 1980 well, and that is EXACTLY what Ronald Reagan did. That’s why average voters bought into his message!
Now is Romney doing that? If he has a plan, I haven’t heard it. Neither does Perry. The problems we have are far too big for simply good management (Romney) or cutting government (Perry) to work. I don’t have any faith that either of those approaches, by themselves, can fix our problems, and neither do most people. Maybe 10 years ago that could have worked, but we’re too far gone – we need a radical restructuring, and most people realize this even if they don’t like it.
As the economy craters the need for a radical restructuring becomes more and more apparent, and urgent – so which candidate benefits the most from a downturn?
The man calling for the most radical restructuring out of all of them – the one man who will stand up publicly and say, “This system is badly broken, and we have to do something very different.”
that man is Herman Cain. This is the insurgents year, and he is the most insurgent of them all.