Jan 21 2012

South Carolina Will “Newter” Mitt’s Cake Walk To Nomination

Published by at 5:10 pm under 2012 Elections,All General Discussions

I am looking forward to tonight’s election results, because it looks like Newt Gingrich is going to have a big night. Nate Silver at Five-Thirty-Eight provides a solid analysis on what is happening:

Much of the reason for the relatively clear lead for Mr. Gingrich is that he has very clear momentum in the race. In a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, for instance, Mr. Gingrich led Mr. Romney by 4 percentage points in interviews conducted on Wednesday night, based on a detailed breakout of nightly results provided to FiveThirtyEight by Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling. But Mr. Gingrich’s lead expanded to 6 points in interviews conducted on Thursday. And Mr. Gingrich led by 14 points in about 700 interviews conducted on Friday night, after the Thursday night debate in North Charleston and the interview given to ABC News by one of Mr. Gingrich’s ex-wives.

In primaries, especially in the early-voting states, momentum is a strong predictor of the results, and it is usually correct to give considerable weight to the most recent data.

Polls this week indicate a big shift towards Newt and away from Romney. This actually makes sense in that I think most people are fed up with politics in general. Many are disappointed that the 2010 backlash wave has been largely ignored by the parties, congress and news media. The Political Industrial Complex has been steadily marching over the cliff, leaving voters flummoxed as to how to further emphasize their distaste with Big Government.

As their frustration grows, the voters are more willing to go outside the bounds of normal behavior. That is why I think, as in 2010, the polling numbers will be way off (since their turnout models rely on average voting behavior as seen in past races).

Anyway, tonight could be another attempt by voters to send a signal to the establishment elites in both parties.

Update: The Hill (the political establishment’s own news outlet) is concerned Romney may be blowing it:

Romney seems to have gone into a defensive crouch, leaving many Republicans feeling like football fans who watch their team move to a ‘prevent defense’ to protect a fourth-quarter lead and dread losing all of it. Their nerves are being jangled even as they acknowledge that outright disaster has so far been averted.

Even if he were to lose Saturday’s South Carolina primary, he would  likely remain the overall favorite to clinch the nomination.

But the procession of errors has been striking nonetheless — and it has raised concerns among many in the GOP about his vulnerabilities in a general election contest with President Obama.

Romney’s inevitability is all he ever had to go with. Once that is gone, he could easily sink back down to the ‘almost won’ category.

2 responses so far

2 Responses to “South Carolina Will “Newter” Mitt’s Cake Walk To Nomination”

  1. [...] As I expected, Newt must have just walloped Romney in SC. Fox News called it before 1% of the vote was in and based on exit polls only. The exit polls must be so one sided to be amazing given the way the media is reacting. The talking heads are acting as if Romney’s candidacy is just about toast. [...]

  2. momdear1 says:

    Newt has proven he is a fiscal conservative by his forcing balanced budgets on Bill Clinton while he was Speaker of the House. Although Clinton claims credit for those balanced budgets and surpluses, it was really Newt’s leadership in the House that was responsible for that accomplishment. Everyone’s main concern seems to be the economy which is in the pits and is fast approaching a major depression, if it isn’t already there. Newt has a proven conservative record as Speaker of the House before the
    Republican’s threw him under the bus, (after the stupid party Republicans passed a rule saying Reps. had to give up leadership positions and committee chairmanships if chargtes were filed against them) the Dems filed trumped up charges against him and all other Rep. leaders. Since the whole country now believes in throw away marriages, and the “If it feels good do it” life style, as evidenced by the acceptance of Bill Clinton’s sex addiction and blow jobs in the Oval Office, Newt’s multiple Marriage record shouldn’t be too much of a problem. If it comes down to a choice between someone with a proven conservative record and a working knowledge of our Constitution, who has a liberal personal life, and a known liberal who has supported socialized medicine, and other ultra liberal policies, who lives a conserviative personal life, my vote goes to the person who favors policies which affect me personally. More Socialism and laizze fair government nanny state handouts and our country is going to sink even further into Third World status. I will vote for the guy with the proven conservative Record every time. The only thing is I wish Calista would get another hair do. She looks like she is wearing a yellow football helmet.