Jan 23 2012

Newt Has Completely Upended The 2012 Race

Published by at 10:05 am under 2012 Elections,All General Discussions

For those frustrated voters who sent a wave of new faces to DC in 2010 – to only see them stymied and gagged by the Democrat run Senate and the impotent Super Committee – Newt Gringrich’s campaign represents something important.

He is a poke in the eye to the Political Industrial Complex, a signal that the voters really mean business – not business as usual.

I and many other libertarian/Tea Party types expected a lot more from the GOP House than the crap we saw over the last year. From their failure to achieve major spending cuts to the instantiation of the Super Committee which basically gagged the new representatives of the voters, DC has acted as if the voter backlash would dissipate and go away, and then everyone in DC could get back to business as usual and screwing everything up through Big Government solutions.

Which are always Big Government disasters. As we saw with the economic implosion caused by the Democrats messing with home loan requirements, as we saw with the Democrats and their mythical shovel ready jobs, as we saw with the Democrats and their ridiculous spending spree that has double our national debt.

Gingrich is a poke in the eye to the establishment. Look no farther than Ann Coulter and others to see how his successes are having an impact:

Conservative pundit Ann Coulter stopped by Fox and Friends Sunday morning and gave a spirited analysis of Newt Gingrich‘s decisive victory over Mitt Romney in the South Carolina primary. “Apparently, South Carolinians would rather have the emotional satisfaction of a snotty remark toward the president than to beat Obama in the fall,” Coulter zinged.

Governor Christie actually was the worst offender on the Sunday talk shows, belittling all those GOP primary voters (who remain the majority, even when split across 3 options):

“I think Newt Gingrich has embarrassed the party, over time,” Christie (R), who has endorsed Romney, said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “Gov. Romney never has.”

Apparently South Carolina voters are fed up with the current political class – Coulter and Christie included. Left and right, these supposedly seasoned veterans have helped lead this country into the ditch. Through a combination of unbending arrogance to their pet peeves and risky brinkmanship, left and right have split America so they could try and gain power and control of her. Not since Reagan has anyone brought us together (with the exception of 9-11, and it should never have to come to that).

Well, for these people to gain the power they crave  the American voters will need to feel so desperate they turn to DC for help. Interestingly enough, while DC is the problem the better solution is to drain the swamp and start over. And that means all the way over.

Something the political elite punditry, professional consultants and the well-connected have not figured out yet. Even conservative mega-blog sites are struggling to understand what is happening:

So, congratulations to Newt, and on to Florida. Let’s just pray that Barack Obama’s second term didn’t start today. If Gingrich does get the nomination, this may turn out to be a year in which Republicans more or less ignore the presidential race, ceding Obama his second term, and focus instead on trying to hold the House and, if possible, picking up a seat or two in the Senate, along with doing the best we can in state races where the wipeout at the presidential level doesn’t swamp all efforts to elect Republicans.

And that was supposed to be a congrats to Newt post! Oh the Humanity.

The doom and gloom around Newt is as interesting as it is pathetic. Newt has a good chance to win Florida and take the nomination now. As someone pointed out (lost the link) the Florida primary is closed to Republican voters, who are much more conservative and Tea Party supporting than the voters in South Carolina. And I think the voters are truly fed up with being told by the establishment who to vote for, so Newt is their man.

The more the DC insiders complain about a candidate, the more the voters are going to rally to that candidate. That is, in essence, how Obama won. Sadly he did not mean what came off his teleprompter. Cain was riding the same wave until he bowed out.

Gingrich looks to be staying in and staying on message. I have never thought Obama could win against anyone – his electability is as much a myth as anyone’s. So I am not seeing Romney that more electable than a ham sandwich.

Gingrich looks to be heading for a big win in Florida:

Less than two weeks ago,  Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here).

That is a 30% swing in 2 weeks. That is momentum with enough inertia (force in one direction) to blow this primary completely in a different direction. It is because of the GOP elites Newt has become the standard bearer for those who are desperately trying to get DC to wake up and pay attention. It’s not like we haven’t given them plenty of chances to stop screwing around. They should have listened.

Update: Readers have begun posting new polls showing a surging Newt. Reader Trent_Telenko links to a poll with Newt up by 8, while reader Frogg1 points to a PPP Poll showing Newt tied with Romney.

BTW, if the establishment tries to replace Gingrich, the backlash will only grow. If they are that dumb, they deserve the results.

Update: Make sure to check out Ed Morrissey’s take on Florida and Newt. A sample:

Romney might have hoped for a 20-point lead in early voting, rather than the 11 points indicated here.  That’s not too large for Gingrich to overcome through the rest of the early voting, especially if he can maintain a double-digit lead.  Thanks to the new momentum, Gingrich may have already begun eating into Romney’s head start among early voters

More Morrissey and  polls here.

27 responses so far

27 Responses to “Newt Has Completely Upended The 2012 Race”

  1. kathie says:

    To me Newt showed passion, others may call it anger. I’m sick and tired of Republic logic. Give me real passion, not that fakery stuff Obama spouts. Go Newt.

  2. Layman1 says:

    I like Newt’s passion, but something about him bothers me and I just put my finger on it watching clips of his speeches today. In one word: Calista.

    It isn’t so much her but the way he constantly refers to the two of them: “Calista and I” … “Calista and me” … “I’ll discuss it with Calista”… blah, blah, blah.

    She’s obviously got him on a short leash and does that surprise anyone? My wife like to say of philanderers, “If he’ll do it with you, he’ll do it to you.” Do you want a nominee whose wife has him by the short hairs?

  3. Layman1 says:

    Oh, try to imagine this scenario.

    A Democrat nominee has admitted to cheating on his first two wives. As he’s preparing for a debate one of his exes comes out with explosive allegations about their split… and the news media ignores it and the moderator does not ask him about it.

    Can you hear the rumble from the conservative crowd shouting about “left-wing media bias”? Yet they ask Newt and he is transformed into the great conservative hero! I get it on the emotional level but not on an intellectual level.

  4. kathie says:

    Newt is NOT a conservative hero. There is no candidate running who is a hero, I’m pretty sure we all understand that fact. But someone has to beat Obama if we want a country. Can Mitt do it? He lost to McCain who lost to Obama. Personally I want something that looks like the United States of America for my children to enjoy. Obama hates everything about this country. He said today, Roe vs Wade helps his girls have the same advantages that boys have. Is he twisted or what? Please don’t get me started, he says something or does something so moronic almost every day…..we have no idea what was in the letter to the Iranians and we won’t know until someone request the information through the FOI act. I don’t know who this Obama guy really is, but my gut tells it is not good.

  5. Redteam says:

    Debate is over, who won? I personally liked almost every answer that every candidate gave. There may have been some that were not as good as others, but all of them gave good answers to most questions.

  6. Redteam says:

    Layman1, so what is your question?
    “he’s preparing for a debate one of his exes comes out with explosive allegations about their split…”

    Are you attempting to imply something? explosive allegations? sure if that is what they are. But what if they’re simply replays of all the same old gossip that has been out there for 15 years, as in Gingrich’s case? Just a network trying to sway the contest ‘their way’. Stick your finger in their eye….

  7. Layman1 says:

    I was just pointing out that the current narrative, “The media tryed to sink Newt and he stuck it to ‘em” is flawed (at the least). If the situation had been reversed we would have been all over them for not asking the question – but they’re a bunch of cretins for asking Newt about it. Can’t have it both ways.

    Newt played it beautifully and played right to our emotions – but a clear, logical look at the entire situation shows our distrust and contempt for the media is what gave him the boost. Think about it, strip away the emotion and you’re left with evangelicals supporting a serial philanderer. Oops!