Jan 23 2012
Newt Has Completely Upended The 2012 Race
For those frustrated voters who sent a wave of new faces to DC in 2010 – to only see them stymied and gagged by the Democrat run Senate and the impotent Super Committee – Newt Gringrich’s campaign represents something important.
He is a poke in the eye to the Political Industrial Complex, a signal that the voters really mean business – not business as usual.
I and many other libertarian/Tea Party types expected a lot more from the GOP House than the crap we saw over the last year. From their failure to achieve major spending cuts to the instantiation of the Super Committee which basically gagged the new representatives of the voters, DC has acted as if the voter backlash would dissipate and go away, and then everyone in DC could get back to business as usual and screwing everything up through Big Government solutions.
Which are always Big Government disasters. As we saw with the economic implosion caused by the Democrats messing with home loan requirements, as we saw with the Democrats and their mythical shovel ready jobs, as we saw with the Democrats and their ridiculous spending spree that has double our national debt.
Gingrich is a poke in the eye to the establishment. Look no farther than Ann Coulter and others to see how his successes are having an impact:
Conservative pundit Ann Coulter stopped by Fox and Friends Sunday morning and gave a spirited analysis of Newt Gingrich‘s decisive victory over Mitt Romney in the South Carolina primary. “Apparently, South Carolinians would rather have the emotional satisfaction of a snotty remark toward the president than to beat Obama in the fall,” Coulter zinged.
Governor Christie actually was the worst offender on the Sunday talk shows, belittling all those GOP primary voters (who remain the majority, even when split across 3 options):
“I think Newt Gingrich has embarrassed the party, over time,” Christie (R), who has endorsed Romney, said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “Gov. Romney never has.”
Apparently South Carolina voters are fed up with the current political class – Coulter and Christie included. Left and right, these supposedly seasoned veterans have helped lead this country into the ditch. Through a combination of unbending arrogance to their pet peeves and risky brinkmanship, left and right have split America so they could try and gain power and control of her. Not since Reagan has anyone brought us together (with the exception of 9-11, and it should never have to come to that).
Well, for these people to gain the power they crave the American voters will need to feel so desperate they turn to DC for help. Interestingly enough, while DC is the problem the better solution is to drain the swamp and start over. And that means all the way over.
Something the political elite punditry, professional consultants and the well-connected have not figured out yet. Even conservative mega-blog sites are struggling to understand what is happening:
So, congratulations to Newt, and on to Florida. Let’s just pray that Barack Obama’s second term didn’t start today. If Gingrich does get the nomination, this may turn out to be a year in which Republicans more or less ignore the presidential race, ceding Obama his second term, and focus instead on trying to hold the House and, if possible, picking up a seat or two in the Senate, along with doing the best we can in state races where the wipeout at the presidential level doesn’t swamp all efforts to elect Republicans.
And that was supposed to be a congrats to Newt post! Oh the Humanity.
The doom and gloom around Newt is as interesting as it is pathetic. Newt has a good chance to win Florida and take the nomination now. As someone pointed out (lost the link) the Florida primary is closed to Republican voters, who are much more conservative and Tea Party supporting than the voters in South Carolina. And I think the voters are truly fed up with being told by the establishment who to vote for, so Newt is their man.
The more the DC insiders complain about a candidate, the more the voters are going to rally to that candidate. That is, in essence, how Obama won. Sadly he did not mean what came off his teleprompter. Cain was riding the same wave until he bowed out.
Gingrich looks to be staying in and staying on message. I have never thought Obama could win against anyone – his electability is as much a myth as anyone’s. So I am not seeing Romney that more electable than a ham sandwich.
Gingrich looks to be heading for a big win in Florida:
Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here).
That is a 30% swing in 2 weeks. That is momentum with enough inertia (force in one direction) to blow this primary completely in a different direction. It is because of the GOP elites Newt has become the standard bearer for those who are desperately trying to get DC to wake up and pay attention. It’s not like we haven’t given them plenty of chances to stop screwing around. They should have listened.
Update: Readers have begun posting new polls showing a surging Newt. Reader Trent_Telenko links to a poll with Newt up by 8, while reader Frogg1 points to a PPP Poll showing Newt tied with Romney.
BTW, if the establishment tries to replace Gingrich, the backlash will only grow. If they are that dumb, they deserve the results.
Update: Make sure to check out Ed Morrissey’s take on Florida and Newt. A sample:
Romney might have hoped for a 20-point lead in early voting, rather than the 11 points indicated here. That’s not too large for Gingrich to overcome through the rest of the early voting, especially if he can maintain a double-digit lead. Thanks to the new momentum, Gingrich may have already begun eating into Romney’s head start among early voters
good article by Steyn on what’s wrong with Romney’s campaign:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/288873/man-who-gave-us-newt-mark-steyn
“Can’t any of his highly paid honchos write him a campaign slogan that’s his own and doesn’t sound in his mouth so cheesily anodyne, as if some guy ran a focus-group and this phrase came up with the lowest negatives?
And where, among all the dough he’s handing out, is the rapid-response team? Newt’s “spontaneous” indignation at John King was carefully crafted by Gingrich himself. By contrast, Mitt has a ton of consultants, and not one of them thought he needed a credible answer on Bain or taxes? For a guy running as a chief exec applying proven private-sector solutions, his campaign looks awfully like an unreformable government bureaucracy: big, bloated, overstaffed, burning money, slow to react, and all but impossible to change.”
Mitt finally figured out that he *has* to release his income tax returns – although that move is a day late and a dollar short to help him any.
It never ceases to amaze me that candidates don’t realize that anything negative has GOT to be put into public view as quickly as possible! Anyone who looks like they’re hiding something is going to be punished (unless their name is Obama, of course). This is what destroyed Cain. Newt’s biggest plus may turn out to be that everyone knows everything about all the things he’s done; when Marianne’s interview came out, there wasn’t anything there that hasn’t been in the tabloids for the last 15 years.
At this juncture arguing over who commands the Titanic is pointless. None of these clowns is up to the job. Obama’s second term was assured months ago when no viable GOP canditate stepped up to the plate.
Let us hope Obama wins a second term. Why, you ask?
Let me tell you the ways.
1) Economic Collapse is fast approaching. The debt pyramid constructed world wide is unwinding. Its collapse will turn those in power over to the wrath of the people. Which ever political party is in control ( the Presidency ) may well go like the Whigs did in the 1850s.
2) Derivatives have a nominal worth of 400 Trillion. When they begin to pop (and they will pop) every pension fund in the West will pop. See #1.
3) Expect another 911 in the next 4 years but this time with 50,000+ deaths. Yes a NUCLEAR weapon is involved from Iran or Pakistan or North Korea or “fill in the name.” The then current President will be blamed.
Dan Kurt
Dan Kurt,
I actually agree with you. This is probably not the cycle to take responsibility for the coming mess, which is rightfully more the Dems fault.
WWS
The faux outrage that Gingrich showed during that SC race is further underlined by this article: Newt Gingrich’s big slobbering mutual love affair with the elite media
Yep, Gingrich plays it out on both sides of his mouth. Hate the media, and the right loves him. Love the media, and the media loves him back. What a political racket!
Dan, if what you say is going to happen happens then I do NOT want Obama in charge. we will need a decisive leader to get us through the crisis and that ain’t Obama. I would rather take my chances with a Republican being blamed later….
AJ, good analysis of what is going on with Tea party/ libertarian/ conservatives right now. Gingrich was not my first choice but Romney is a sissy. We need someone who wants to fight.
Dan, I have one question for you: How many Supreme Court appointments will the next president make and how long will their terms run?
You know the answer and I, for one, am truly astounded at the logic (self-destruction) that is being suggested for the final blow to destroy our country…all from within. It is this kind of Policital thinking that makes me sick. However, you could be a paid troll to go around the net and post these posts.
Defeatists,Eyeores: do not sign up with me for I chose to follow the adage from Churchill: never, never, never, never give up. Right now, I am totally disgusted.
And, Gingrich hit it out of the park all week. Maybe he is the one who can endure the Chicago thugs. There is one thing all the consultants miss, imho and it is this: the country today is obsessed with POWER. Period. Who wins, who loses. Who has it, who doesn’t. Romney is not showing he has INTERNAL power. Newt did last week. He was a shrewd, shrewd politician last week. Very smart. We live in raw times.
So far, all polling has Obama beating Gingrich by 10 points or more. After what Gingrich did to Clinton, no moderate Dems are going to vote for him. He might win the Republican nomination, but that would mean Obama wins the general, probably by 10 points or more.
Obama beat McCain by a little over 7 points. Obama will be Gingrich by 10 points or more.
If you want a conservative candidate, back Santorum. He is polling better against Obama than Gingrich is.
RCP Average 1/5 – 1/16 — 50.6 39.6 Obama +11.0
PPP (D) 1/13 – 1/16 700 RV 49 42 Obama +7
CBS News/NY Times 1/12 – 1/16 1021 RV 50 39 Obama +11
Rasmussen Reports 1/15 – 1/16 1000 LV 47 38 Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 1/12 – 1/15 RV 52 40 Obama +12
FOX News 1/12 – 1/14 906 RV 51 37 Obama +14
CNN/Opinion Research 1/11 – 1/12 928 RV 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/Ipsos 1/5 – 1/9 896 RV 53 38 Obama +15
Romney is actually tied or beating Obama in a couple of polls. Santorum is polling against Obama better than Gingrich.
Look, Gingrich simply can NOT win the general. He can not get the required crossover Democrats and has no support among independents. He might be the darling of conservative Republicans but he would lose the general election and that is useless.
WWS,
I am no fan of Gingrich. He is a personally disorganized, professional politician and demagogue besides, and he needs to be watched like a hawk and beated around the ears often.
However, the key to understand here is that a demagogue makes himself a tool for other’s anger, to be a vessel they can go forth and express their rage.
That is why Romney underestimated Newt’s army in S.C.:
“South Carolina’s Republican voters set a new primary turnout record Saturday when more than 600,000 of them went to the polls, shattering the previous mark set in 2000.
With 13 precincts still uncounted Sunday morning, 601,166 votes already were recorded, topping 2000?s turnout of 537,101 and well ahead of 2008?s 445,499 voters. Earlier in the week, officials had projected a moderate turnout about equivalent to the 2008 primary.”
The population of the “Unaddressed Right” is roughly twice as large as the “Unadressed Left.”
Pres Obama went after the vital interests of the “Unaddressed Right” with his health care, economic, environmental and land use regulations.
Now Gingrich is riding that wave, just as he rode the rage of the Assault Weapons Ban and the Congressional Check Kiting Scandal in 1994.
The last time the “Unaddressed Right” had a Presidential candidate, his name was Ronald Reagan.
The last two times the “Unaddressed Right’s” vital interests were at stake at a national level during the Congressional midterms, were in 1994 and 2010, with the Assault Weapon Ban and Obamacare, respectively.
Now compare those three instances in American politics above to the the recent “Unaddressed Left” OWS protests.
This Presidential election the “Unaddressed Right” has the fear of Obama’s second term and the Tea Party banner to rally ’round.
And the only candidate on the Republican side that has been respectfully engaging the Tea Party on their issues has been Gingrich…who happened to be the demagogue leading the 1994 Republican take over of Congress.
As for Gov. Romney, he has had a hard floor of 25% of support in the Republican primaries in 2008 and thus far in 2012. He is now bleeding out from the unanswered negative attacks and the loss to Gingrich in S.C. Both the Rasmussen and Gallup polls are showing Mitt Romney is cratering nationally, as well as being behind in Florida.
I suspect Mitt will be behind Gingrich, nationally, the day of the Florida vote.
Romney has time, organization and cash to come back, but he is very much in the seat Gov. Rick Perry was after Perry insulted the base over illgegal immigration. Romney has to run the perfect campaign and hope for Gingrich to self-destruct. Which might happen, but Mitt’s political fate is no longer in his hands
Gingrich’s biggest enemy has always been the man in his mirror.
Newt’s biggest allies are the Economy and the men in Romney and Obama’s mirrors.
If the total number of people employed in America is lower on Nov 2012 than on Jan 2009, whoever the Republican nominee is will be President.
I’d like to see Newt win Florida big just to see what the GOP establishment heads exploding really looks like. 🙂
After Cain left the race I didn’t think I’d have much interest in the rest of the primary campaign. Au contraire. I’m starting to have a blast watching this. I am not excited about; but am ok with, and will support, whoever the nominee is. I have no favorite. They all have warts. So, for me, I think the long primary campaign is an extremely good thing.
Trent,
“However, the key to understand here is that a demagogue makes himself a tool for other’s anger, to be a vessel they can go forth and express their rage”
Bamm! you nailed it!
Newt is playing to the fears and anger on the “Right” to propel himself. He is in fact a “Conservative” version of Obama. A silver tounged politician. I am sorry to see so many fall for this ploy unawares. Yet he plays it so well, and its easy, because Romney cannot say the words, at least with any passion.
Still either one would be better than Obama. Yet, I fear, its Obamas match to win. I hope I am wrong.
Something happenin Thursday
Might mean nothing
Might mean something
Obama in a Ga. Court
Just sayin’
Obama in a Ga. Court? Never happens. Obama will invoke executive privilege and refuse to go. Who’s gonna challenge him, Eric Holder?
If anyone ends up in hot water over this, it’ll be the Judge who dared to suggest that His Royal Highness Obama is a mere mortal who has to answer to the law like the rest of us. There’s probably a special ops team making plans for him already, along with a draft announcement of his unfortunate “accident”.
Mordecai Subaru , WWS,
This is much sound and noise that signals simple DoJ laziness.
Obama’s DoJ lawyer failed to properly file a motion to quash.
The Federal district judge in Georgia is effectively telling the DoJ to get off their flatt butts, do the job of properly filling out their court documents with the minimal constitutional law cites, so he can do his job of properly quashing the order.
Newt has a lot of problems. He is prone to speaking his mind – before thinking things completely through. But he FIGHTS. And he is trying to address the concerns of the Conservative (as opposed to Republican) base. That’s worth a lot.
The Republicans aren’t called the Stupid Party for nothing. Romney was ALWAYS a weak candidate. The moderates in the party should have ditched him for someone both stronger and more palatable to the rest of the party a year or two ago. Jeb Bush would have been the obvious choice, and would be sweeping to the nomination.
Instead, they worked on bashing potential challengers to Romney, Palin in particular. Which opened the door for a much less appetizing Not-Romney named Gingrich.
I’m fed up with Karl Rove. I’m fed up with the internal fights between the likes of RedState and Reihl World and so on.
Obama will be in Las Vegas campaigning for his votes instead of going to GA.
I am guessing that the polls will be wrong and will eventually demonstrate that Newt will beat Obama in every poll.
Did you guys see that Newt and Rick are going to give a speech on their new space plans?
While I was not a Newt fan, the way he fought, won me over so far.
He proves to be a good brawler, exactly what we need to have in order to have a prayer against the Chicago thug(s).
As for the cycle, we simply can NOT afford to have Obama as president for 4 more years.
We need somebody able and willing to lead this country in the frightening days ahead of us.
As a side result of the last weeks, I am sooo disgusted with the repubics, I am very close to re-register as a libertarian or Constitution party.
GOP has only one chance left, and is just about to blow it.
re: “ivehadit says:
Dan, I have one question for you: How many Supreme Court appointments will the next president make and how long will their terms run?”
1) The Supreme Court is made up of LAWYERS who have been educated to do one thing: WIN AT ANY COST. To expect their LIBERAL/PROGRESSIVE ideology to trump the RIGHTEOUS ANGER of the American Population is to pervert human nature as to do so would be suicidal. If times become as hard as I foresee those Democrat Supreme Court Justices will be in the vanguard seeking retribution from the politicians in charge be they Republicans or Democrats. Heck, I can see them justifying Ex Post Facto “Justice” with relish. See these two legal articles: The Supreme Court and Public Opinion in Times of War and Crisis, Gordon Silverstein and John Hanley, http://tinyurl.com/7ruc8dj or and How Public Opinion Constrains the U.S. Supreme Court, Christopher J. Casillas, et. al., http://falcon.arts.cornell.edu/pe52/CEW_ajps2011.pdf or
2) Your response suggest that I am advocating a do nothing or promoting hopelessness given our future options. I think I merely am a Cassandra doomed to see a terrible future that I can not see a way to avoid and being condemned for voicing my views. I am not an advocate for any action at this point except self preservation of family and friends. The time for political action is over. Sauve qui peut.
Dan Kurt
Gallup tracking poll puts Romney up nationally by … one point
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/01/23/gallup-tracking-poll-puts-romney-up-nationally-by-one-point/
Gallup national tracking poll shows Newt Gingrich has closed to within one point over the last three days. Romney now leads Gingrich only 29/28…
…There is more bad news in the poll as well. Romney continues to do well in Gallup’s polling in the “trial heat” head to head matchup against Obama, scoring a 48/50 against the incumbent. However, Gingrich picked up four points overnight in the same poll to get to the exact same 48/50 rating, which helps Gingrich make the argument that he’s at least as electable against Obama as Romney.