Jan 30 2012
Tomorrow We Determine: Are Voters Engaged or Enraged?
Major Update: Looks like PPP also detected a late Gingrich Surge:
Meanwhile, a Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, has Mr. Gingrich with a manageable-looking 7 points deficit. And he was down just 4 points in interviews conducted on Sunday alone, according to a cross-tabulation provided to FiveThirtyEight.
Well, well, well. I saw one poll claiming Romney is winning Evangelicals and the Tea Party. Sounds fishy to me. I would say tomorrow is going to be very surprising – end update.
The other day I noted that primary polls this year were not to be trusted, especially in Florida since the turnout modes used by pollsters has little prayer of being right given this cycle is like none other – so there is no historic basis to any turnout model. The factors I listed that made this year so unique in Florida primary history:
First off, we still have the 2010 insurgent voter out there. This can be seen in the fact that the current GOP voters in Florida are not the same ones from 4 years ago:
Republicans have narrowed the Democrats’ registration edge in Florida since November 2008, when Barack Obama carried the state. And with the Jan. 31 primary still nearly two weeks away, more than 446,000 Florida Republicans have requested absentee ballots — far exceeding the 307,744 absentee requests for the 2008 GOP primary.
Figures released by the Division of Elections today show Florida has 11.2 million voters, with 40.5 percent registered as Democrats and about 36.2 percent as Republicans. The gap of 4.3 percentage points between Democratic and Republican registrations compares to a 5.8-point gap that favored Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election.
Assuming the number of voters has not changed in Florida (still 11.2 million), the number of new GOP voters is euqal to the change in the gap between registered GOP and Democrat voters. This change is 1.5% or 168,000 new GOP voters, out of a total number 4, 054,400. This represents 4% of the total GOP voters.
4% is a large number when candidates are even 8% apart. A 4% shift moves a blow-out to a tie.
Another factor I noted was how Florida is actually in the kingmaker position this cycle, something they are never really in since they were historically one of the many Super Tuesday contests. This new pivotal position in the GOP selection process is going to really change the turnout models:
Florida moved their primary date up again this cycle (cutting their delegates from 99 to 50, with no super delegates) to move off of one of the Super Tuesdays. One thing is true, if voters don’t feel their vote counts, they don’t take the time to vote. Florida has never been in this position, where their vote will make a huge difference in who takes on Obama. So voters are going to come out in historic numbers (like they did in SC).
Just to be clear, this prediction has already come true in the early, absentee voting. This is a record voter turnout year already:
Early voting began statewide nine days ago, and according to figures released Monday afternoon by the Florida Department of State, which runs the division of elections, 293,760 people have already cast ballots.
But wait, there’s more. According to the state, more than 531,000 people have requested and were sent absentee ballots, and 338,753 have been returned and received by Florida officials.
Add it all together and more than 632,000 votes have already been cast before primary day.
The story goes on to claim this will help Romney because he has the better GOTV organization. But if his GOTV is activating 2010 insurgent voters, he is turning out his own opposition. Romney is now the establishment candidate after his brutal campaigning.
But something else may be in play right now, and that is Team Romney’s over the top negative campaign against the Tea Party insurgents. In the 2010 GOP landslide, a whopping 41% of the voters were Tea Parry supporters.
Exit poll data indicate that 41 percent of those voting in House races Tuesday said they support the Tea Party. Thirty-one percent of voters said they oppose the Tea Party. And a quarter of voters take no position on the Tea Party one way or the other.
I was about to concede the state to Romney, but I was hesitant to understand why polls moved so quickly. There is no policy reason for the move. Yes, there was a lot of Romney mud-slinging, but that tends to smear both candidates in the mud pit.
One thing I noticed in 2010 and in 2011/20012 was that America is still enraged and fed up with the status quo and the party/political establishment. This anger and frustration resulted in these voters tuning out politics until action could be taken. This showed up in SC in spades, as the polls picked up the shift to Newt in the last week. I think these voters are not engaging until the last minute.
BTW, SC is accustomed to being a pivotal and early primary state. While they had a record turnout, the turnout models would hold up fairly well there since the SC role was not unusual.
A late poll coming out today lends credence to the possibility that Mitt Romney could be heading for a Dewey Moment:
The Sunday results of 646 likely GOP voters are as follows:
- Romney 36 percent
- Gingrich 31 percent
- Santorum 12 percent
- Paul 12 percent
- Other/Undecided 9 percent
“The race will be tighter than expected,” Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax.
As is noted in the accompanying story, Insider advantage was the first to detect the SC shift to Gingrich.
My rose-colored theory is that the insurgent voters of 2010 are still out there, but running silent and deep. They are spurning the pollsters, becoming undetectable. Also, as I noted in the previous post, even if the insurgent centrist voter is answering the poll, they could easily be thrown out of the ‘likely voter’ pool because of the simple fact Tea Party insurgents are new to the political process, many voting for the first time in a long time in 2010. And very few participating in the primary process. No previous voting in primaries gets you punted out of the ‘likely’ voter pool.
What if this key voting block is being missed by pollsters?
Does it really make sense the 2012 voter is that much different from the 2010 insurgent voter? Did the 2010 insurgent voter all of sudden decide to go milquetoast and support Romney? I see no reason for them to shift from angry backlash to pragmatic lambs. What happened in 2011 or 2012 to make them passive supporters of more of the same in DC?
I would expect if their support for Romney was real, Obama would be sinking in the polls, not rising as he is. Even Democrats are showing a come back against the GOP in the congressional ballot. Seeing the backlash against Obama and the Dems drop off over the last three weeks just as Romney is rising has me questioning if the rise is real support, or the 2010 tsunami voter has just gone silent until they hit the voting booth tomorrow.
My guess is a large turn out tomorrow helps Newt. I see nothing for the 2010 insurgents to all of a sudden become passive establishment followers. In fact, given how lame the GOP House has been since 2010, I only see rising frustration.
Which is why maybe tomorrow will not be as the polls say. The only problem with this theory is the fact that so many polls show a Romney cake walk. Hard to believe they are all wrong – unless the voters are not cooperating and indicating the truth out there.
Needless to say, tomorrow evening will set the path for this nation for the next 4 years. In terms of stopping the out of control federal government, there are few options left. Romney and Obama will fight all bold changes. They are so similar is hard to believe its worth having an election. But we shall see….
I see that some GOPers are disregarding the Tea Party people.
I don’t know about the others but I’m enraged but not engaged. I see that frogg1 indicating that if Obama gets re-elected, then Obama will nominate two new SCOTU’s.
And that is not good. This needs to be a sales pitch to convince people to come out to vote.
Polling in Florida is especially difficult for a couple of reasons. It’s a large and very heterogeneous population that includes a lot of Spanish speaking Hispanics that are also Republicans. That in addition to the normal trouble with gauging what is a “likely” voter. It’s hard to weight everything accurately. The polls are everywhere (between 5 and 20 pts for Romney). I think I’m trusting PPP right now. They were closest in SC. But if PPP is right, they got a stronger Newt sentiment in the 2nd night of their 2 night poll. It could be swinging toward a closer election.
here are the latest polls:
suffolk 1/30/2012 47-27-12-9 Romney +20
we ask america 1/29/2012 50-28-12-10 Romney +22
ppp 1/28-29/2012 39-32-14-11 Romney +7
surveyUSA 1/27-29/2012 41-26-12-12 Romney +15
insideradvantage 1/29/2012 36-31-12-12 Romney +5
reuters/ipsos 1/28/2012 43-32-16-6 Romney +11
reuters/ipsos 1/29/2012 42-30-16-6 Romney +12
rasmussen 1/29/2012 44-28-12-10 Romney +16
and intrade — at this moment — has Romney with a 98% chance to win…
nuff said.
I like your analysis, I hope it’s correct.
Klimt,
Yeah, I mentioned ‘rose-colored’ right?
There are more than a few Tea Party people who find Newt politically toxic and personally disgusting. A lot, maybe even most, Santorum supporters fit into that category.
Newt is *not* the automatic beneficiary of a heightened Tea Party turnout.
WWS
I exemplify your comment as I belong to and contribute to the CA chapter of the Tea Party Patriots. Of course, this is not Florida, but CA…but, as you all know by this time, Newt is not my 1st choice for POTUS.
In agreement, let me go on record as predicting a race within 2 points either way. I think Newt might actually edge Romney, but in any case , within 2 points. I’d guess 80% plus of tea partiers will be voting for Newt.
The Lame Stream Media is gonna be surprised.
I have no basis from which to determine if Suffolk is accurate or not but the 20 pt edge they show seems to stretch any credibility. PPP as I mentioned was most accurate in SC. The PPP folks said Romney was leading by about 9-10 pts after first night of polling but ended up publishing a 2-day poll with a 7 pt lead. That means in night #2 Gingrich was roughly only 4-5 pts behind. Both Rasmussen and Insider advantage underrepresented Newt support in SC. Insider advantage is showing a Romney lead of only 5 while Rasumussen has Romney up 16 in a poll that only goes through 1/29.
I think there’s still a chance of a close race in FL. Mitt probably wins but if it’s less than a 5 pt margin questions will still persist about his ability to close the deal. $16 million to destroy Newt and not be able to completely do it says a lot about Romney’s weakness as a candidate.
Just don’t get your hopes up….
What about the early votes?
from: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/129-romney-with-wide-lead-in-florida/
Key points:
With votes already in the bank, Romney — 49% — leads Gingrich — 27% — among early and absentee Republican primary voters in Florida. Santorum receives 17% while Paul garners 6%.
Romney’s best groups include likely Republican primary voters who are not Tea Party supporters — 52% — those who identify themselves as liberal or moderate – 49% — those who are just conservative – 47% — and likely Republican primary voters who earn $75,000 or more — 49%.
Romney also outpaces his competition among those who want a candidate who can defeat President Barack Obama in the general election — 45%.
Romney holds his own among those who are Tea Party supporters. Gingrich has 36% to 34% for Romney and 22% for Santorum. Among Evangelical Christians, Romney has 34% to 28% for Gingrich and 25% for Santorum.
Gingrich leads among likely Republican primary voters who are very conservative. Here, he receives 36% to 29% for Santorum and 24% for Romney.
Newt Gingrich wins Tea Party Patriots Florida straw poll
Gingrich, Santorum, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney all participated in the call. Texas Congressman Ron Paul was extended an invitation, but was unable to attend.
At the end of the call, participants were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. Thirty-five percent said they would vote for Gingrich, 31 percent for Santorum, 18 percent for Romney, and 11 percent for Paul. Five percent selected none of the above.
Callers were also polled on their relative levels of enthusiasm for supporting each of the potential GOP nominees. In a dead heat, Santorum and Gingrich generated the most enthusiasm.
….Nearly 6,000 people were on the call, and about 600 people voted, according to Tea Party Patriots co-founder Jenny Beth Martin.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/30/newt-gingrich-wins-tea-party-patriots-florida-straw-poll/
Klimt, the absentee ballots have not been counted yet…..
If it is, indeed, a slam dunk for Romney with a double digit lead as the poll averages indicate…..then FoxNews will call the race for Romney within minutes of the polls closing (just like the called the SC for Gingrich within seconds of the polls closing). If the race isn’t called as a projected victory for Romney right away then it probably indicates it will be a closer race. I have no idea how it will go. I only know the polls are fluid, and show some erratic numbers on some of the internal findings. However, don’t forget in the 2008 Dem primary the polls gave Obama a double digit lead over Hillary in New Hampshire, and Hillary had a stunning victory of 3 or so points. It wouldn’t be unheard of. However, no matter how Florida goes…..I think Palin put her finger on a growing rage within the Tea Party…..she’s right, it’s not about Gingrich or Romney…..it’s about some sick establishment GOP behavior that crosses the line. It’s bubbling under the surface and may not explode (if it does) until later in the primary.
Frogg1, et al (other anti-Establishment fans), I’ll be glad when Florida is behind us. For me it wasn’t so much about being for Newt, but about Romney being the nominee. Nothing in Romney’s record shows him to be even a moderate/conservative. Other than whatever he says now that contradicts everything he ever proposed or supported in his term in Mass. His ability to “buy” the nomination by taking out his opponents is breathtaking.
If the Tea Parties and conservative voters don’t stand up to the GOP Establishment in 2012, then nothing will change in Washington. If the GOP sends Romney there, we’ll still be going over the clift, fiscally, socially, and judicially. Does anyone here think Romney is going to appoint a Constitutionalist judge to the Supreme Court? No.
2012 may well be the fracture of the GOP that is needed, because right now, the GOP is trying to not only silence the “base” of the Party, but take them out completely.
I saw something this morning about Romney’s electability…demonstrating how much he had to spend and still get only about 30 to 35 percent. He has’t been able to bring more Republicans over and he hasn’t been able to bring over alot of independents.
It seems that the race will not be called after today as Romney supporters may have hoped.
Interesting that Michelle Malkin finally endorsed someone and that someone is Santorum. She built a good argument explaining her endorsement but I think she went for him because of Bella.
Frogg1, you may be right but then I’m also telling myself to my vote is to get Obama out of the office no matter who wins the GOP nomination. I’m tired of the negative campaign that went on between Newt and Mitt. I’m not feeling excited about the candidates as I don’t have anyone to stand behind. Santorum actually is number one on my list but he is still a big government and his odds don’t look good.
Wow! Obama made a better case against mandates (when he was against them) than any Republicans make today. Repubs should copy his rhetoric:
When Obama Ran Against The Mandate
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/when-obama-ran-against-the-mandate
You have to admit…..American politics are so bizarre sometimes. 🙂
Election Oracle: Could Newt Win Florida?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/30/election-oracle-could-newt-win-florida.html
While Mitt Romney has opened a commanding 14-point lead in Florida in a Quinnipiac poll released Monday morning, Newt Gingrich continues to generate a more favorable conversation online—a good sign for his chances of picking up support from the one-in-three voters there who are yet to fully commit to a candidate.
While both men have had sub-zero favorability ratings for the last week as they’ve amped up their attacks on one another following Gingrich’s South Carolina win, the former speaker’s-22 rating gives him a 15-point advantage over Romney in the Election Oracle’s measure of the online conversation.
To determine favorability ratings, the Election Oracle tracks 40,000 news sites, blogs, message boards, Twitter feeds, and other social-media sources to analyze what millions of people are saying about the candidates—and determines whether the Web buzz is positive or negative. That rating is weighted, along with the Real Clear Politics polling average and the latest InTrade market data, to calculate each candidate’s chances of winning the Republican nomination. (See methodology here.)
We’ll see if Gingrich’s lead in favorability rating translates into an advantage among late-deciding voters. That in turn could help answer what’s now the crucial question in this incredibly volatile primary season: If Gingrich does in fact lose Florida, will he have a fourth act?
AJ,
I think you are right in tagging the new Republican Primary voter as the key demographic this election cycle.
The SC turnout was hugely Jacksonian in terms of new voters. They were Newt’s margin of victory and they made him the biggest vote getter of any political candidate in S.C. history.
A similar pattern in Florida will see a really huge turn out in the pan handle and rural north Florida.
Sadly, this is the best link I have found regards on-the-ground realities of Republican turn out in 2012:
http://my.firedoglake.com/inoljt/2012/01/27/previewing-the-florida-republican-primary/
Newt Gingrich just gave a interview with Sean Hannity.
In it he came out for straight forward repeal of Obamacare as his first priority in office. Apparently he has been saying this in his Florida campaign stump speech the last few days and it likely explains his sudden surge with voters there in the polls AJ has quoted.
Newt also made a very big statement on how the Catholic Church now forced to buy abortion services via Obamacare mandates in the same interview.
Repeal of Obamacare is the silver bullet in the Republican primary.
It is the first priority of the Tea Party/New voters.
If Romney does not commit to that policy as well. He will be in grave difficulty the rest of the Republican primaries.