Feb 07 2012
Trifecta! Santorum Slams Brakes On Romney’s Coronation
final update: Santorum pulls the upset, wins all 3 contests handily. Romney takes a huge loss as voters deny his inevitability!
Well, well, well. A very surprising night for the GOP primary race.
It’s 9:55 PM and with 30% of the locations reporting from Missouri Rick Santorum looks like he is going to win big. Fox News has Rick at 54% to Romney’s 26% and has now called the beauty contest for Santourm. Santorum has nearly twice Romney’s votes, which is clear indication that the ‘anyone but Romney’ insurgent voters out their in Main Street.
In the Minnesota caucuses Santorum is leading with 44% to Paul’s 27%, with Romney a distant 3rd at 17%. That is with 11% reporting so it is still early. But if that ALSO holds that will be two big wins for Rick.
So where will Colorado go? We shall see, but if Romney fails 3 out of 3 he will be hurt badly. Santorum has been winning the debates of late, so maybe it is the last anti-Romney candidate standing!
I could get behind a Santorum candidacy.
Major Update (11:56 PM): Surprise ending.With 32% reporting in Colorado Santorum leads 43% to Romney’s 29%. We may not have enough votes in yet, but Santorum looks to be on path to a trifecta win. What a blow to Romney and the GOP establishment!
Major Update (10:33 PM): As predicted CNN just called Minnesota for Santorum. He has 46% to Paul’s 26% and Romney’s 16%. Congratulations to Senator Santorum. Now we see where Colorado goes.
Major Update (10:20 PM): 23% of Minnesota results are in and the previous numbers are holding. I expect the networks to call MN around 10:30 PM for Santorum. With 70% of the vote tallied in Missouri Santorum has twice the votes of Romney, who finds himself back at the 25%. Big day for Santorum, huge blow to Romney.
Major Update (10:10 PM): Minnesota’s count keeps coming in and Romney looks to be toast. 20% of the votes are in and Santorum as 44%, Paul has 27% and Romney is fighting for 3rd at 17%. If Romney loses all three contests tonight his campaign will have taken a serious blow. Maybe even a terminal one.
The final paragraph especially:
“So, do I think the 2012 election is slipping away from conservatives, Republicans, and the American people? Yes, I do. This is a year in which it was incumbent on conservatives to pursue, soberly, the overriding goal of evicting Barack Obama from the White House. We didn’t do that; in fact, it wouldn’t be far off the mark to say that we made fools of ourselves by chasing one will o’ the wisp after another. I fear that in November, we will pay the price.”
Republicans have sabotaged their own chances by repeatedly torpedoing the candidate who has the best chance of winning. It’s been a game of “anybody but Romney” for the “conservative” bloc and they are (again) going to end up getting a Democrat elected because of it.
“Romney does need to improve his messaging and be careful what he says.”
Yes. Part of the trouble is that Romney isn’t a professional politician. He’s also something of a nerd. I mean, any guy that can get a masters in business and law *at the same time* pretty much has to be a nerd.
The man is extremely smart and he doesn’t come across with emotional fire and brimstone. He is also trying really hard not to alienate the rest of the voters by playing too much to his base. I think he’s really trying hard to put a little something out there for everyone.
I don’t agree with all his ideas. Indexing minimum wage to the CPI, for example, is a bad idea. But is probably a lot less harmful of a bad idea than what I see Obama coming out with. The point is that Romney has a real track record of balancing budgets, getting government under control, and even managing to tone down the most liberal legislature in the country. He turned around the Olympics while running a campaign for Governor at the same time. The man can walk and chew gum.
Santorum just can’t get elected, in my opinion, and I don’t want to waste my time putting up a candidate that I believe from the start is going to loose. I have to look at who I believe has the best chance of beating Obama and backing that player. We can worry about getting more conservative maybe next cycle. We just don’t have anyone who can win this cycle who is what I would call conservative so we have to play the hand we have been dealt.
I am not saying Santorum is a bad guy or that conservatives are wrong or bad. I am saying that this is a campaign for President of the United States. It means the President of everybody, not just conservatives and it has to be someone that people are going to vote for across demographic lines.
Obama might have *really* screwed himself with the Catholics (Hispanics) this week, or he might just be playing a little psychological poker. He can let the uproar about his birth control decision build and then cave in and come across as a wonderful compromise President who “feels your pain”. Then they all come rushing back to support him.
It is to early to say who will beat who. I harken back to April 20, 1992 issue of Time magazine. The image on the cover is a “negative” of a black and white photo of Bill Clinton. The title on the cover is “Why voters don’t trust Bill Clinton” Well, I remember that issue of Time, that was April, by November Clinton was “the man”
The true race has not started yet. the next 4 weeks or so will boil out the GOP candidate. Once there is a head to head the race will begin.
Here is the cover I mentioned. In April 1992 things looked bad for Clinton, I think this was not long after the 60 minutes interview, but his skill rebounded him.
http://img.timeinc.net/time/magazine/archive/covers/1992/1101920420_400.jpg
The man is extremely smart and he doesn’t come across with emotional fire and brimstone. He is also trying really hard not to alienate the rest of the voters by playing too much to his base. I think he’s really trying hard to put a little something out there for everyone.
Crosspatch
I agree with that paragraph. And in doing so, I think Romney has to cease be a ‘pleaser’ and simply be himself. He’s a rich guy, a Mormon, both putting him in an awkard position in not being “Mr Everyman.” But, that is who he is, and he has to become comfortable with who he is, and in fact turn these images of himself into assets. His Mormonism has given him self-discipline. His wealth was achieved through his own skills with finances and business. His endorsement of ‘life’ and ‘family’ is generously illustrated through his large and loving family. His ability to get along with others is aptly seen by the support he has gleaned from across the political spectrum. These are all assets which should be amplified in every speech. People will either get his message, or they will continue sticking their heads in the ground looking for worms.
What’s with this:
“Part of the trouble is that Romney isn’t a professional politician.”
“Santorum just can’t get elected,”
I have nothing against Romney, seems to be a smart guy. But the claim that he’s not a professional politician just doesn’t apply. Running for several political offices, whether you get elected or not, qualifies as being a politician. He’s been non-stop campaigning since 1994. 18 years is enough of an apprenticeship, you can officially dub him a ‘career politician’ that has a hard time getting elected. I believe he has actually lost more political campaigns than Santorum, who “just can’t get elected”.
So people, let’s be honest. I don’t understand the ‘desperation’ that ‘noboby but Romney’ can get elected. Whoever the Republican candidate is has at least a 50% chance and it’s hard for me to believe that a majority of the people in this country think obama is the answer to anything. As long as the candidate is qualified for the office and he’s against obama, I’m voting for him (or her).
Redteam,
As long as the candidate is qualified for the office and he’s against obama, I’m voting for him (or her).
You’ve consistently said this during the primary. And, I think your position is one that everyone should follow. Even though, many of us may have different candidates in the primary in which we support, during the GE is where a consolidation should occur around the nominee finally chosen in the primary.
However, while we are still in primary mode, I continue to think that Romney has the fiscal experience needed, a broad political/intra-party support, a voter appeal that extends beyond the conservative base, capable of crossing party lines capturing moderates and conservatives, alike, in all party affiliations, and the financial resources and organization to be competitive in all states against Obama — more than any current candidate in the republican field. This is why I think he is the ‘best’ we’ve got.
jan
I agree with almost all of that except instead of saying this: “a voter appeal that extends beyond the conservative base” I would say ‘ a voter appeal that even appears to extend into the conservative base’.
Your way indicates he is a conservative that gets support outside his base. Actuality is he is not a conservative, but gets some conservative support, including you.
Seems as if he has great business executive experience, something that may be very beneficial in running the business of the country. He has learned, somewhat, how politics are played, even that may be of benefit to him. Lord knows, obama had no experience with anything except socialism and that sure hasn’t helped the country.
While I have been primarily a Newt fan, I’ve always thought Santorum would be excellent, but just didn’t have a chance. Now that he is the party’s leader in primaries won, his chances seemingly are getting better. I hope that continues. While I believe Romney would be an even weaker candidate than McCain was, I think the national politics this year are favoring the Republican whoever it is.
Oh no, another comment in moderation, and it isn’t even a long post.
Who used this description of Romney?
“severely conservative Republican governor.”
Redteam
Romney used that phrase in today’s CPAC speech. Here is his CPAC speech, in it’s entirety.
yeah, I knew where it came from. I can’t decide if he said this in a humorous vein or if he was serious. I guess you’d have to actually hear how it was said to know his intent.
but let’s assume he meant it as he said it. why would he say that? We already know that politicians will be politicians, but surely they should kinda, sorta, like, pretend to be truthful. He certainly has done a few things in his lifetime that could be mildly labeled as conservative, but really, ‘severely conservative’? Doesn’t the blatant dishonesty turn you off just slightly?
I can understand people wanting to win an election, but why would someone just ‘pretend’ to be something they’re not. I mean, it’s kinda like obama pretending to be a college professor, or a college graduate for that matter. Then on top of that, pretending like he has any goal other than destroying capitalism in the USA.
Redteam
Romney can be a hesitant and awkward speaker. He is not as fluid as Gingrich, where the words just roll off his tongue, wowing people in the process. Romney seems like a ‘thinker’ not a speaker. So, he struggles more with his communication in his effort to connect with people. I personally see him as sincere, a little up tight, a man with a lot of savvy and good ideas locked up in his head, validated by his background in the business world, but having to go through the gauntlet of continuing doubt by a populace who continues to demand more from him. The more I read about the man, his family, his business ingenuity, the more I like him.
Sorry, but I took your comment literally, that you really didn’t know where this comment originated from. Maybe, I’m a little naive and awkward, much like Romney….
Jan, I sure don’t personally dislike the guy. I’m sure if he were in the room I’d like him very much. He seems sincere, but at the same time he has to be political because that’s what he is. I’m retired now, but I was a high level manager in my working years, and I understand people liking you when they really don’t, but really, Romney does seem like the kinda person that if you got to know him on a personal basis, you would like him. (and his family, they all seem genuine) The country is really at a crisis point and I sincerely hope that whoever we get, cares about the country. It can not continue in the direction that the present incumbent is headed. We just can’t add a trillion dollars a year to the debt, but obama is hell bound to even increase that. He is absolutely determined to do as much damage he can this year and try to get 4 more for the Coup de gras. We can’t let him.
(your point, maybe he’s just not a good public speaker)
Redteam
I think most of us just want who is best suited to fix what has become a crisis-in-the-making direction this country is headed. You thought that person was Gingrich. I have been patting Romney on the back, and now the public seems to be lifting Santorum up, as the latest guy to wear the frontrunner mantle. It’s getting me a little dizzy, quite frankly, following all the musical chairs arrangements of who is out and who is in. However, you and I are totally in sync in agreeing that “It can not continue in the direction that the present incumbent is headed.”
FYI:
Quite frankly, this surprises me. From what I heard from news reporting it seemed like the Santorum surge would have made him the winner.
Seeing how Santorum had been trailing so far behind, second place and not that far behind Romney is surprising. I am not surprised that Mitt won either.
PPP poll puts Santorum in the lead by 15 points nationally
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/02/11/ppp-poll-puts-santorum-in-the-lead-by-15-points-nationally/
That’s a huge surge (and he leads in practically all categories). However, Santorum’s social conservatism hasn’t been vetted yet. He has said some things that taken in context might not sound too bad; but, taken out of context will make him look like a radical. He needs to get hit with those….and explain away…..so people can decide how much damage that will do him.