Feb 16 2012
Romney Fading, Santorum Rising, GOP Losing Ground To Obama
Major Update: Rasmussen confirms my Ohio prediction:
The new statewide telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters shows Santorum picking up 42% of the vote to Romney’s 24%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich draws 13% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%.
H/T Ed Morrissey at Hot Air – end update
The political dynamic has been pretty boring recently. We continue to see the “anyone but Romney” faction out there resisting the establishment choice and now massing behind Rick Santorum. I think Rick will stick as the 2010 insurgent voters’ candidate.
I think Romney’s attacks are wearing thin on everyone as he desperately tries to retain his mantle as the next obvious choice. Moreover, his attacks have helped make Obama look good, who has seen his support rise continuously while the GOP dukes it out. This remains the largest risk to the GOP effort – they have promoted a seriously flawed front runner and their A-Team options stood on the side line.
It is time for Newt to capitulate and go back to being a force in the GOP, not the leader.
It is time for Paul to be honest with his supporters and tell them he is not in this to win, and he too should bow out.
And it is time for Santorum to stand up and become the true anti-big-government candidate. He is right about one thing, he is the best alternative to Obama (since Romney is barely and alternative).
I expect Santorum to take Michigan and Ohio. I hope Arizona wakes up and realizes Romney is a recipe for a landslide win for the Dems. And I expect this slow rolling train wreck, where the GOP continues to diss their 2010 insurgent voter base, to plow slowly onward.
Really AJ the whole Republican field is a landslide for Obama. How we could field such a bunch of incompetents is beyond me but we did.
My prayers are with the Supreme Court.
AJ,
I think your spot on with this analysis.
Although I am worried about our chances of beating Obama I am not ready to give up. It’s too early, and a lot can happen, Bush 41 was 15 points behind Dukakis in August polling. Clinton was in trouble in April.
OL
Oh boy. As O’Reilly said if obama is elected we will not recognize this country in 4 years.
And it will be a permanent “transformation”. Are you ready for that?
If not, get up off the duff and vote the guy (and all his minions in congress) OUT.
Let’s not forget, many times during WWII we were being defeated. BUT WE NEVER GAVE UP.
The end result of “Anybody but Romney” was to strengthen Obama.
Congratuations, AJ. You and the rest of the ABR crowd have made it easier for Obama to get four more years.
Hey Harold,
How you holding up? I know you are a big Romney fan, and I recall your concerns about his Mormon background (which doesn’t play into any of my thinking).
I hate to say it, but Romney was/is not going to beat Obama. He does not have the connection to the Tea Party and Conservative base. He is too elite and too big-government (remember, he also believes in Global Warming).
Sorry to see your candidate going down – but it really was not we who did this to Romney. His wounds are self inflicted. He is who he is.
Now, if Orin Hatch had run …
Anyway, you are welcome here, even to vent frustrations my direction!
It will be permanent, in no small part, because of the Supreme Court nominees that will be placed in the next four years.
As Andrew Breitbart said, if one is not satisfied with the candidate fighting in the bunker to get rid of obama, then for him, they are on the other team. It’s just that simple and I have to say I agree. ANY republican candidate is better than what is there now. Why? Because at least they love the dream called America.
Romney’s main argument was electability – when he loses primaries, that argument goes out the window and he’s left with nothing else to base his campaign on. I once hoped Romney could change his message and adapt, but he can’t, and we have to face the fact that if Santorum and Newt could tear apart Romney’s support that easily, Obama would have done it in the fall. No way would Romney beat Obama, he’s just too weak.
The problem is that I also think there’s no way Santorum wins a national campaign; too easy to paint him as a religious fanatic. (and that’s all a fall campaign with him in it will be about) But there’s no way Newt wins, he once again is hated by a solid majority of the country. And there’s no way Paul can win, as you’ve stated.
4 candidates, not a ghost of a chance that any of them can win. The rest of this primary season is about as meaningful as an arena football league schedule. A lotta noise and expended energy and who cares?
I tend to agree with you, AJ. Santorum is the Last Not-Romney Standing.
I’m divided about who to support. Personally, I think the best thing would be to flush the whole lot of them in a brokered convention and go to a dark horse candidate. Romney has the aggressiveness to win, but not the ideological separation from Obama. Santorum comes off as a pure social conservative, which puts off a lot of people with libertarian leanings.
The problem is, of course, finding a suitable dark horse. None of the candidates noised about a year ago are suitable. If they had the guts to be President, they would have run. Personally, I’d favor Bob McDonnell of Virginia. He’s done well in VA – and has a short enough record to offer the Dems little scope for attacks.
That being said, don’t lose hope just yet. Nobody’s taken a crack at Obama yet. Once the nomination gets settled, I think a lot of money will be coming out of the woodwork. I donated $50 to my primary candidate…but will donate at least ten times that to the eventual nominee.
And never forget the Fast & Furious gun-running scandal. That is primed to blow up this summer.
While the GOP race is far from over, not to mention the national race, I can make a statement which can be backed up by facts:
the GOP succeeded once more, to royally piss-off the conservative base.
Coupled with the so called leadership disaster in the House and the Senate, I think GOP is finished.
Regardless of what happens in the next election, the slow motion of the birth of a conservative party has been put in motion.
Ok! I’m back on google chrome!
I remain confident about the GOP nominee’s odds of defeating Obama. The positive economic news isn’t going to stay positive throughout the summer.
Mike M., don’t forget the gas prices! There’s a lot of talk about a five buck gas. Not that surprising!
dbostan, it would definitely be nice if we would see the birth of a new conservative party. The problem is how this new conservative party responds to the MSM. The MSM is constantly setting traps on the conservatives and the MSM ultimately wins. The conservative party needs to learn to message better.
Did you see this?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/daily-kos-to-make-mischief-in-republican-primary
The DailyKooks should be careful what they ask for, because they might get it.
Santorum is very strong among the Reagan democrats, who elected, well, Reagan.
Well, I’ve been confident for a while that Newt would be the nominee and that Santorum had the best chance to beat obama. I’m no longer sure about Newt, I think he’s out. But I still feel confident that Santorum will defeat obama. I just can not bring myself to believe that over 50% of Americans are ready to give up on the country and go with socialism/communism. I believe over 50% will vote to keep the country we have. that is the two choices we face in November.
This anti religious thing that obama is pushing now, along with Fast and Furious and the Green payola to obama buddies will pretty well doom him. But, the thing that is really going to do him in is the price of gasoline. obama’s popularity is inversely proportional to the price of gasoline. As the price goes up, his voters go down.
I’m staying with the tea partiers, obama is out in Nov.
Oh no, another “comment is awaiting moderation. “
Redteam, I don’t even know how you keep getting snagged!
Redteam,
The problem the GOP has is the ignored the 2010 insurgent voters. These voters would be out in spades if they felt someone was finally going in the direction the voters want them to go in.
It’s not they don’t want change, they now believe voting will not do anything. Of course people want Obama out – but if the replacement is a slight variant on just the same they won’t get up and vote.
That’s the problem and it is the GOP’s fault for tearing down the GOP candidates like Cain, Bachman and Palin while promoting Robamaney. They broke their pledges, silenced the new members voted in during the 2010 cycle and keep making fools bargains with a Democrat Party that is ruling by illegal means (no budgets, not authority).
O ye, of little faith.
It is FEBRUARY not October. A lot of water has to pass under the bridge before ye abandon all hope.
The economy is going to tank between now and then. Bank on it. Obama is going to fold like the Futon he is. Any Republican will beat him. Any Republican.
Dan Kurt
@Redteam:
You better believe approx. 50% are for socialism.
Who voted for him, when all the facts against him were known, in 2008?
What do you expect the people, who watch Oprah and TV all day, thinking that is reality, to do?
Have you seen the number people DEPENDENT on the gov. dole?
What do you expect them to do?
Vote against the source of their check in the mail?
You will not believe the hate directed against me, by old “friends” and neighbours and acquaintances, when I started being vocal against the demsheviks and Obama.
And I work in Silicon Valley, among very educated people!!!!!!!
I became a pariah, but I take that as a badge of honour.
I will always speak the truth, no matter what.
dbostan, I don’t disagree with you, BUT: the 50% that are on the dole and, and I’m talking, generally speaking, ignorant. They couldn’t name the vice president if their life depended on it. They don’t even know when election day is or where the polling place is. If a dedicated leftie picked them up and carried them to the poll and pointed to who to vote for(and this happens way too often) then the dims will get the votes. There is gonna be many, many people like me that is sick and tired of this crap and like the tea partiers in 2010, they WILL be at the polls that day and vote these socialists out. As I said before, I believe at least 51% of the people that live in this country want to preserve it. This is their last chance.
One point of disagreement: “Who voted for him, when all the facts against him were known, in 2008?” Au contraire… NO facts were known about him in ’08 and in fact, are still not known about him. We don’t even know what his birth name is/was. but that’s another subject……