May 09 2012
Apparently the 2010, insurgent Tea Party voter (as opposed to any attempt to organize an actual political party) is alive and well in Indiana. And my guess it is alive and ready to vote change in all 50 states and the White House this year.
While the GOP tried mightily to co-op these independent, centrist voters it really never worked. The GOP simply looked like the better foundation through which to begin a political revolution. The GOP supposedly is the party of small, limited government. But after the GOP caved in 2011 on real, near term cuts in government, it became clear the establishment GOP was as addicted to government power as the liberals. So more change is coming.
This morning the nation wakes up knowing it can (and will) throw out those politicians who are too set in their ways, and too able to stymy actual cuts in government. Dick Lugar was one of these ‘statesmen’ who knew how to play the Senate – yet he (and too many others) allowed the Democrat Senate to run in neutral for 3 years, never once meeting its constitutional requirement to pass federal budgets to run the government. Instead of the promised action after the 2010 election wipe out, we are stuck with terminal inaction and those stupid promises of future good behavior.
In my mind, Lugar is one of nearly 100 pols who need to be retired. So while a good start, the job is not done yet.
DC is all twitter that Richard Mourdock (has the backing of Libertarians and Tea Party types.
Hopefully more will be on the way. It may take a decade to clean house – but sooner or later DC will bow to the will of We The People.
Can’t help but end this by noting a bit of panic from Jim Carville:
Democratic fundraisers, activists, supporters, and even politicians alike have somehow collectively lapsed into the sentiment that the president is going to be reelected and that we have a good shot to take the House back while holding the Senate.
I ask: What are you smoking? What are you drinking? What are you snorting or just what in the hell are you thinking?
The polling? Not that encouraging. The latest Democracy Corps poll was 47-47. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has the president up a whopping three-tenths of a percentage point. And I am hearing the garbage that Democratic donors are telling Democratic fundraisers …”Obama has it in the bag.”
Well, Obama does have his epic “FAIL!” in the bag. Here is the key data point. Obama is sitting in too many polls at 45% or lower. That is the point of no return for incumbents. I suspect he will drift all the way down to around 40% over the summer as two things transpire.
First, most 2010 insurgent voters are so fed up they have tuned out politics. You see it in the low turn out in the primaries, and you see it in the dropping readership/viewership of political shows and electronic outlets. They wake up on occasion, but mostly they are biding their time until November.
Second, the polls are not yet sampling likely voters. So when Obama is up by 3 he could really be down by 3. And if he is tied he could be behind by 5-6%.
When these two factors shift late summer the Dems are going to have a rude awakening.