May 24 2012
Or assessing recent polling data. A recent poll in a key battlegr0und state shows clear danger for Obama’s re-elect:
The Quinnipiac University poll shows Romney leading the president 47 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, a notable shift from a tie in Quinnipiac’s last poll of the state in early May, which showed them effectively tied.
That is not even among ‘likely’ voters, and Obama is already in the dead zone of 41%. Then there were those primary votes in the south, where Obama lost 40% of his own party:
President Obama lost more than 40 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s Arkansas and Kentucky Democratic primaries, despite little-to-no opposition.
Obama lost 42 percent of the vote to the “uncommitted” option in Kentucky and more than 40 percent to little-known attorney John Wolfe in Arkansas — the latest example of the incumbent president failing to win significant shares of votes in uncompetitive contests.
But it’s not the first time the president has taken less than 60 percent of the vote in a primary this year.
He ceded 41 percent of the vote in West Virginia to an incarcerated man in Texas named Keith Judd, and in Oklahoma, Obama lost several counties and won just 57 percent of the vote.
When your own party doesn’t want you, you will not win the general election. Sort of one of those obvious indicators the news media wants to ignore because it pains them so much.
At Real Clear Politics Romney is at 44% (43.8 if you are into mythical precision) and Obama is at 46% (or 45.5). This is a statistical tie, but it really is much worse than that. Most polls are still sampling voters or adults, not likely voters. Of the three sampling likely voters the average is Romney 46% and Obama 44%. Given that undecideds rarely break for the incumbent, this indicates Obama is heading for a bad election. He is sitting at 45% – which for an incumbent means near certain defeat.
I doubt I will be posting much on polls over the summer (unless Obama’s support collapses like his fundraising is) because I have been convinced since his Stimulus Packages screw up the man was toast. You don’t fix the economy and give people hope then you don’t get a second term. So more polls showing the same dire future are not going to be of much interest. But occasionally I may opine on the inexperienced community organizer failed as world leader for all to obvious reasons. And Americans noticed.