May 24 2012
Connecting Dots
Or assessing recent polling data. A recent poll in a key battlegr0und state shows clear danger for Obama’s re-elect:
The Quinnipiac University poll shows Romney leading the president 47 percent to 41 percent among registered voters, a notable shift from a tie in Quinnipiac’s last poll of the state in early May, which showed them effectively tied.
That is not even among ‘likely’ voters, and Obama is already in the dead zone of 41%. Then there were those primary votes in the south, where Obama lost 40% of his own party:
President Obama lost more than 40 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s Arkansas and Kentucky Democratic primaries, despite little-to-no opposition.
Obama lost 42 percent of the vote to the “uncommitted” option in Kentucky and more than 40 percent to little-known attorney John Wolfe in Arkansas — the latest example of the incumbent president failing to win significant shares of votes in uncompetitive contests.
But it’s not the first time the president has taken less than 60 percent of the vote in a primary this year.
He ceded 41 percent of the vote in West Virginia to an incarcerated man in Texas named Keith Judd, and in Oklahoma, Obama lost several counties and won just 57 percent of the vote.
When your own party doesn’t want you, you will not win the general election. Sort of one of those obvious indicators the news media wants to ignore because it pains them so much.
At Real Clear Politics Romney is at 44% (43.8 if you are into mythical precision) and Obama is at 46% (or 45.5). This is a statistical tie, but it really is much worse than that. Most polls are still sampling voters or adults, not likely voters. Of the three sampling likely voters the average is Romney 46% and Obama 44%. Given that undecideds rarely break for the incumbent, this indicates Obama is heading for a bad election. He is sitting at 45% – which for an incumbent means near certain defeat.
I doubt I will be posting much on polls over the summer (unless Obama’s support collapses like his fundraising is) because I have been convinced since his Stimulus Packages screw up the man was toast. You don’t fix the economy and give people hope then you don’t get a second term. So more polls showing the same dire future are not going to be of much interest. But occasionally I may opine on the inexperienced community organizer failed as world leader for all to obvious reasons. And Americans noticed.
The signs may indicate that Romney will pull away from Obama and it will be soon.
Interesting that intrade still shows that Obama has 55 percent chance of reelection but his numbers are declining there as well.
His popularity poll numbers may not reflect the reality based on the results of those primary results.
I had a friend claiming that Sarah Palin was a community organizer. Wow, he doesn’t know the real definition of a community organizer.
The only thing of interest of the poll numbers might be that Romney pulling away from Obama but even that might not because our spent roller-coaster emotions…so drained with negativism and having to deal with less prosperity and poor retirement prognosis.
Romney winning over Obama will certainly be a vast improvement over Obama.
And dang it if those liberals will try and attack John Roberts for doing the right thing if he sided with the Constitution over ObamaCare.
The latest, Obama is running to bring down the debt. I think, that he thinks, that we think it is the Bush debt he is running to bring down. Oh Lordy this man’s audacity has no bounds.
I second your comments, Kathie.
Recent polling is interesting in what most of the polling agencies seem to be doing is greatly under sampling Republicans. For example, a Marist poll of swing states out today has Obama up by four but has the Republican sample in the polls below even the low 2008 turnout. According to Ed Morrissey the D/R/I sample of an Ohio poll released today is 37/28/34 or an undersample of Republicans by 10 points. Even in 2008 which had an overwhelming Democrat turnout and weak Republican response at the polls, exit polling shows a D/R/I of 39/31/30 so the Marist poll is expecting both Republican and Democrat turnout to be two points below 2008 and oversampled independent voters.
So the pollers are adjusting samples to get desired results. So Obama currently has a 4 point lead in Ohio with a skewed sample.
If Romney wins Ohio and Virginia, Obama looks to be toast because so far it looks like he has also lost NC, IN and maybe after next week, WI.
“Lordy this man’s audacity has no bounds.”
Yeah, like thinking he was born in Kenya….
Yea, he was thinking that if we thought he was born in Kenya we would buy his books. Then he was thinking that if we thought he was really born in Kenya he might have a hard time running for Pres. given his drug use, Rev Wright, Billy Ayers and all the other radical stuff he had done. So he changed born in Kenya for born in Hawaii…..really who cares! He is the worst Pres. in the history of the Nation.
“He is the worse President in the history of the Nation.”
But but but…he got barely over 50 million votes in ’08, indicative of the voters’ indoctrination through the school system.
No matter how many facts we put before the liberal’s face, the liberal just refuse to believe the facts but the only the “facts” that they choose to believe. And those “facts” are not facts. They’re lies. It’s all because they were taught by their teachers to believe the lies as facts.
As for the drug use, Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Rezko, et al, the same liberals CHOSE to ignore the problems with both Bill Clinton and Obama.
The country has become so secular that they do not understand the principles, especially the Judeo-Christian and founding principles.
Look at how hard the socialists have worked on slow creep of socialism to replace the conservate federalism filled with Judeo-Christian principles and they’re successful.
It’s up to us to fight back quietly and peacefully. But we need to be reasonable and sensible in our response…not an extreme.
It looks like Romney is already pulling away and more people know it. Look at how some Democrats are refusing to answer any question about their support and vote for Obama. Look at how people are starting to move away from some Democrats…like Claire McClaskey.
Playing Devil’s Advocate…suppose Romney wins with both houses under the Republican hands, will we be happy with this combination?
Gee…I used the word, “s0cialism” again putting this post under moderation…redoing my post to fake certain words.
““He is the worse President in the history of the Nation.”
But but but…he got barely over 50 million votes in ’08, indicative of the voters’ indoctrination through the school system.
No matter how many facts we put before the liberal’s face, the liberal just refuse to believe the facts but the only the “facts” that they choose to believe. And those “facts” are not facts. They’re lies. It’s all because they were taught by their teachers to believe the lies as facts.
As for the drug use, Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Rezko, et al, the same liberals CHOSE to ignore the problems with both Bill Clinton and Obama.
The country has become so secular that they do not understand the principles, especially the Judeo-Christian and founding principles.
Look at how hard the s0cialists have worked on slow creep of s0cialism to replace the conservate federalism filled with Judeo-Christian principles and they’re successful.
It’s up to us to fight back quietly and peacefully. But we need to be reasonable and sensible in our response…not an extreme.
It looks like Romney is already pulling away and more people know it. Look at how some Democrats are refusing to answer any question about their support and vote for Obama. Look at how people are starting to move away from some Democrats…like Claire McClaskey.
Playing Devil’s Advocate…suppose Romney wins with both houses under the Republican hands, will we be happy with this combination?”
While we’re connecting dots, let’s connect a couple more:
Arizona Iced Tea = Arizona Watermelon Fruit Cocktail
Arizona Watermelon Fruit Cocktail + skittles = the 2 main ingredients in ‘fire a*S lean = common drug used by teens in Miami.
http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2012/05/24/update-26-part-2-trayvon-martin-shooting-a-year-of-drug-use-culminates-in-predictable-violence/#more-40485
Here is same thing without link to recipe:
While we’re connecting dots, let’s connect a couple more:
Arizona Iced Tea = Arizona Watermelon Fruit Cocktail
Arizona Watermelon Fruit Cocktail + skittles = the 2 main ingredients in ‘fire a*S lean = common drug used by teens in Miami.
Two other things stand out in my mind which benefit Romney. First, Obama is in the general election; yet his campaigning tactics seem geered towards only his base (has lost his base). Secondly, the attacks I knew he would make against Romney and has, seem to be backfiring.
Check HotAir about the donors losing interest in Obama.
RT,
Stop hyperventilating… You need more O2 in that noggin of yours.
Skittles = drugs?
Thank the lord you are not in a position of authority or power.
Wow…talk about connecting the dots elsewhere….Brett Kimberlin…ACORN, RAW Story, Soros, Striesand, Tide Foundation, Project Vote, etc. Left Wing activism.
Scary stuff.
Redteam seems to be right. Skittles and AZ watermelon drink are the two main ingredients to purple lean (popular among teens, especially rap culture, in the south). He would need a third ingredient though (like cough syrup, etc). Could be irrelevant to the case. If there is any connection I’m sure it will come out in the trial.
AJ: LOL, so now you’re branching out into comedy?
“RT,
Stop hyperventilating… You need more O2 in that noggin of yours.
Skittles = drugs?
Thank the lord you are not in a position of authority or power.”
maybe you should re-read what I said. all I did was post a link to a site that tells about the latest fad, drug drink. I didn’t create or endorse the formula.
actually, is said you can substitute jolly ranchers for skittles.
“Thank the lord you are not in a position of authority or power”
I’m not? hmmmm….
Connect some more dots.
“just like I want my daughters to have the same opportunities as my sons.”
“the president was speaking with the help of a teleprompter.”
Let’s see,,, Obama and Michelle think he was born in Kenya, at least he says he does (and she does also) and now he reveals that he has some sons. couldn’t be a mistake since he was reading prepared text from a teleprompter.
I haven’t seen them around the White House, they must be living in Kenya, or Indonesia, or somewhere.
This guy is impressive….
You should check Lee Stranahan’s site and read his “bio”….
Layman, just had a thought, tell your friend to take that dollar bill and scan it, like you would, oh say, a birth certificate, then print it and then run it through that Adobe thing. then you won’t see all those layers, only one.
RT: I admitted I know nothing about processing digital images but I was a bit curious so I asked the only person I know whom I consider an expert. He gave me a very simple experiment to try which I passed on yo you. Take it or leave it – but quit being an a$$.