Jun 05 2012
Update 8 (10:14 PM): This is just amazing. I cannot believe these numbers. 40% reporting and the GOP gubernatorial candidates (now re-elected) are hold onto 18-19% leads. The most anyone saw coming into this was 6%. Everyone predicted a close race – not a wipe out.
Democrats – wake up. Your party has been wiped out be Obama-Pelosi-Reid. It has not happened yet, but it is happening.
Update 7 (9:56 PM): AMAZING! Fox News is calling it for Walker and Kleefisch. And it does not look even close 25% reporting Walker is up 20%, Kleefisch 19%. And this shows the exit polls were crap. And this in turn confirms my suspicion that the anti-government tsunami is running under the radar because this huge voting group is just not engaging pollsters.
The political landscape in America just shifted – and significantly. This is stunning. BTW, watching CNN eat crow will be fun tonight!
Update 6 (9:40 PM): Good Lord, what happened here? 21% reporting and both Walker and Kleefisch are holding 22% and 22% leads (respecitvely) in an enormous turn out election. If a 6% win by Walker spelled doom for Obama and the Dems in November, what the hell does this mean?
Update 5 (9:42 PM): Unbelievable – 15% in and the 20-21% lead for the GOP gubernatorial candidates are holding…
What happened in Wisconsin? Almost no Dems on Fox News, just a lot of gloating conservatives…
Update 4 (9:41 PM): Wow, Wow Wow! 11-13% reporting and Walker is up 21 and Kleefisch is up 20%!
Update 3 (9:40 PM): Wow! 10% precincts reporting in and Walker is up 19% and Kleefisch is up 18%. I am not calling anything yet because I don’t know which precincts are in and not in. But Fox News keeps hinting they will call soon, and expose the folly of the exit polls. That would be 8.0 on the political Richter scale if this pans out they way it looks it might - end update
Very interesting events playing out in the Wisconsin Recall coverage. First off CNN and Fox News opened with very upbeat GOP representatives (Lt Gove Kleefisch on Fox, GOP head Priebus on CNN). The exit polls show a tie (50-50), but turn out was enormous, as is anger with the entire recall fiasco. The fact is there are no Democrats really out there yet on the news.
My view has been all year centrist libertarian types (including the real grass roots, tea party voters from 2010) are sick and tired of the politics as usual. I believe that irritation has been expanded to include political pollsters. If the anti-democrat, anti-big-government voter is deliberately running under the radar, only surfacing at the voting booth (a hint of what we saw in 2010), then polls are even more skewed left than usual.
I don’t think Walker will win by a large amount, but the exit polls are really all over the map (Walker gaining with Catholics, Barret with college grads). One thing is for sure – Big Labor has finally met its match. Walker’s reforms have left the government employee unions loosing half their number now that they have to request and earn support. And if the voters support that shift away from knee-jerk union support, the unions are in enormous trouble.
And if the unions are in trouble, Democrats are in trouble. It may be Obama-Pelosi-Reid are the latest to wake the sleeping giant. That being the Reagan centrists who have now been forced into the libertarian corner due to out of control and failed government solutions.
Yes, if that the lesson of Wisconsin today, that would be a huge and historic political change. And if the exit polls and the voting results begin to show a divergence, then what we think we know about November 2012 is now completely upended.
BTW, the best political debate on the net is over at Hot Air. Please chime in there and here. The GOP looks to be poised to have a huge night.
Update: 5% reporting in Walker is 58-41 and Kleefisch is up 57-43. I can see why this actually may not go all night. Fingers crossed folks!
Update 2: 7% reporting and these numbers are holding for now. We have a lot of Democrat precincts to come in and it will tighten. But I am feeling tonight will be better than the exit polls indicated.