Oct 15 2012
President Obama is going to go all male-alpha on us tomorrow night in the next debate, in order to make up for his flat and meandering performance in the first debate. This could easily become an unmitigated disaster if he over does it (like crazy Joe did in his dramatic debate debacle). If Obama comes out red hot like Biden, he will more than likely fall into a series of policy and reality traps waiting for him.
These traps include:
(1) The first big trap is the one Biden set for the President on Benghazi. During Biden’s debate he made the ridiculous claim the White House and President were ignorant to the facts surrounding the attack that killed 4 people (among them our ambassador) for more than a week. As someone put it, either this is a lie to cover up something worse, or this President is so out of touch he was too lazy to find out the real story. Take your pick – lose or lose. Obama should admit the mistakes and simply promise to move heaven and earth to bring the perps to justice.
But that would go against the strategy of being the alpha-male against Romney. So Obama has little chance of being superior if he has to admit the mistake of blaming a video and a spontaneous protest for what was clearly (from day 1) a planned attack and massacre.
(2) The “Romney only paid 14% in taxes” line. Obama will try to paint Romney as a greedy, tax sheltering, 1% Scrooge. But all Romney needs to do is note that he got away with 14% in taxes by paying something like 45% to charity:
… a new analysis of the GOP candidate’s wealth shows that the millionaire was so generous that he kept just 42 percent of his income.
Romney’s answer is simple. If I sent that to the government only a fraction would trickle down to those in need, so he prefers to maximize the money that reaches the needy by bypassing the bureaucracy. It will be a pointed reminder to the Libertarian, Tea Party element that still exists in the electorate.
(3) If Obama goes to the 47% meme, he will also leave himself open. Mainly because Romney has walked back his own comment, but more importantly Romney can point out Obama only offers the 47% more government dependence, not economic freedom. Romney can ask which path do they want to go down: food stamps or job opportunities?
Watching Biden, who is much more seasoned debater than Obama, I could see the trap he fell into. The need for drama obliterated his ability to convey a cogent and coherent message. You can either impress with your brilliance or go to the dramatic BS. You can’t do both.
Romney just needs to perform well, Obama has to try not to be the Snark-in-Chief and not put the final stake through his own campaign.
BTW, you can see Obama losing ground still in poll after poll. This new swing state poll shows crippling damage to Obama in the states he needs to carry:
Apparently Romney is leading in the swing states with “likely” voters by 4% 50-46%. As I noted in a previous post, this gap of Romney at 50% and Obama at 46% would make almost a given Obama loses these states, and therefore the election. A side note: in these states Romney has tied Obama with women, another clear danger sign for campaign Obama.
If Obama over does it tomorrow night, he will cement these numbers in place and that should end the election (barring a real surprise).