Oct 18 2012
We may be seeing the beginning of a harmonic resonance (or feedback loop) where a tipping point has been hit that builds upon itself and sends this race to one side. And that is the ever more depressing Gallup poll results (if you are a Democrat, Liberal and/or Obama support).
Today (10/18/12) Romney leads 52-45% among likely voters. For an incumbent US President that is a near 100% guaranteed loss.
This will depress Obama voters, whose intensity will drop off.
Which should result in ever worse poll numbers.
This will depress Obama voters, whose intensity will drop off some more.
Rinse and Repeat.
This is a harmonic feedback that arises once a tipping point (here the confidence for the left leaning voters) pulls the system (here the electorate) out of the stability of a dead heat and into a one sided win.
The question is, if this is the case, where is the bottom? If we look at a recent Michigan poll, it could be historically bad:
Usually, an incumbent who can’t get to 50% in pre-election polling is in trouble. An incumbent who can’t get to 45% is almost certain to lose, especially with less than three weeks to go, as undecideds are already disinclined to support the candidate they know best. What does it mean when a poll from a firm linked to Democrats in a key Democratic state can’t produce anything better than 44% for a Democratic incumbent and a virtual tie with a Republican challenger?
This indicates the Gallup number may not be an outlier as much as leading indicator. It also means that if Blue Michigan is this bad, nationally it could be a route. Could Obama drop to low 40% on election day? It’s possible.
W need more polling to see for sure, but early next week we will know the answer.
This is generating some great commentary at Hot Air, as the Obama era looks to be coming to an end.