Nov 03 2012
A slew of polls are out from WSJ/NBC/Marist showing Obama leads in Ohio and elsewhere. Only problem is the turn out models appear to be devoid of all reality. First, you will want to read this:
While Obama is ahead in early raw voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina, voting expert Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University, says Romney has effectively closed the gap enough that strong Republican turnout on Election Day could cost Obama those states.
“It’s going to be difficult for Obama to pull enough ahead to win North Carolina to offset what Romney may do on Election Day,” says McDonald, director of the United States Elections Project. “They’re seeing the same numbers I am seeing.”
In its poll, conducted this week, Pew reported that neither Obama nor Romney “has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.”
This is a two page article that can be boiled down to this: Absentee/Early voting results are showing 2012 is nothing like 2008 when Obama had a huge surge of Hopey/Changey at his back. Now he has the boat anchor of four years of failure around his neck, and the result is he has no edge in turnout. Period.
Added to the other reputable polls that show (a) Governor Romney is winning independents and (b) President Obama’s base is not as energized as 2008, it is clear that in the real world of 2012 this is no repeat of 2008. I would wager, adding the Independent edge Romney has to the small Early/Absentee vote deficit Romney could have if all partisans voted with their party would erase that last little edge.
I’d spend a half-hour analyzing the latest NBC/WSJ poll conducted by Marist in Ohio shown Obama with a 6-point lead over Romney, 51/45, but all you need to know is this: the D/R/I is 38/29/32 [AJStrata: D+9]. In 2008, the exit polls showed a split of 39/31/30 [AJStrata: D+8], and in 2010 36/37/28 [AJStrata: D-1]..
[Ohio} Obama leads by 6. The party ID a D+9 (snicker).
Absentee/Early voting is not a poll, it is hard, actual data. It is clear: there is no D+ anything out there at the moment. There is fraction of the edge Obama enjoyed in 2008, all of which can be easily erased election day if the 2010 insurgent voters come out en mass.
And they will be out en mass.
Hopefully the WSJ will do something to fix its reputation and denounce these silly statistical fantasies from Marist.