Jun 02 2006
Can The World Unite To Stop Iran?
Ultimatums are one thing, backing them up is another. I am glad to see a consensus in that the world has given Iran only two choices: stop enriching or we go to the next level (UN security council):
The United States and five other major world powers agreed Thursday to offer Iran a broad new collection of rewards if it halts its drive to master nuclear technology, but they threatened “further steps in the Security Council” if Iran refuses.
What worries me is Iran may find the threat of a UN sanction laughable. Saddam wracked up 14 over 13 years, and the UN still balked. And the reason the UN is worthless is because it never follows through. Did not follow through on Iran or the Balkans. So while I applaud the unity, I doubt Iran is going to make any substantive adjustments. They are on a path of state-sized martyrdom to see how many of the infidels they can take out with themselves. UN paper threats will not be a deterrant. I hope I am wrong, but I don’t think I am.
I think they major coup of this deal is in internal Iranian politics. So now Iran sees a united core of the Security Council and an affirmative response to their request for US dialog. The people have to be looking to their president and wondering “what now”?
They have only one card left. They can defy the UN under the assumption that the united front will not hold together in the face of the defiance and will fracture when it comes time for enforcement. But that is a higher stakes play and if it doesn’t come to pass, the Iranian president is going to find himself in serious domesic political trouble.
As far as I can tell the people in Iran want economic prosperity, not confrontation with the world and they are getting restless. International sanctions are likely to increase internal unrest.
The Iranians will keep on talking right up to the point that they have a bomb. Nothing except force will stop them, which the West will be very reluctant to do.