Nov 04 2012
Nevada Early Vote Indicates Possible Romney Win
Nevada has completed its early voting, and while Democrats have a slight lead in raw numbers, the GOP and Independents have also come out in force. Therefore, some reasonable turnout calculations show a possible Romney win. Here’s the math:
Final vote tallies (ref here and here):
- Democrats: 307,877 (43.9%)
- Republicans: 259,913 (37%)
- Independents: 134,055 (19.1%)
But we know that these groups don’t vote just for their party’s candidate. So we can do some experimental turnout model runs to bracket the potential eality.
If you look at some of the common partisan splits out there in national polls, President Obama should be able to hold 84% of Dems and Romney 90% for the GOP. This is important, because center-left Democrat defection is the President’s biggest problem. The other big key is with independents, where polls show Romney winning by double digits (up to 21% in one VA poll).
So for the first run, lets assume:
- Dems go 84-14% to President Obama
- Reps go 90-10% to Governor Romney
- Indies go 55-45% to Governor Romney
If this is what happened in Nevada, then Romney would win the early vote by 51-49%. That would indicate the President is not likely to win that key state come election day. These numbers closely reflect the state of play nationally.
Let’s run another case:
- Dems go 90-10% to President Obama
- Reps go 90-10% to Governor Romney
- Indies go 55-45% to Governor Romney
Here Obama holds his coalition together at the same level as Romeny, and he wins 52-48%. But is this a good assumption? After the 2010 election I would say not really.
- Dems go 90-10% to President Obama
- Reps go 90-10% to Governor Romney
- Indies go 60-40% to Governor Romney
Here Obama wins 51-49%. This is one of the least likely outcomes, because Obama would not be holding center-left Dems and losing independents by 20%.
Next:
- Dems go 84-14% to President Obama
- Reps go 90-10% to Governor Romney
- Indies go 60-40% to Governor Romney
Here Romney wins 52-48%. While the first run is closest to the conventional wisdom, this run looks to be a possible result for Romney because he is taking independents so well this year. Here Obama loses center-left Dems and independents big. One last experiment:
- Dems go 84-14% to President Obama
- Reps go 95-5% to Governor Romney
- Indies go 55-45% to Governor Romney
Surprisingly, this mix of turnout and voting patterns gives Romney the highest result: 53-47%. Is it feasible for Governor Romney to steal 14% of democrats, win independents by 10% and hold his base to only a 5% loss? You betcha. This is nuch more likely than Obama holding Dems to a 10% loss.
I ran with GOP 94/5. Dem 90/9. I’s 53/43.
I came out with O-49.55 R – 48.88 Other – 1.57.
Still close enough to overcome on election day.
Early votes tend to be more loyal. The indepedents are the big wild card as their vote totals are up 25% in early voting compared to 2008. My questions is are these no-party people getting out early to stand in line to keep the failure or vote him out?
Off topic but perhaps not, have you seen this?(!!) http://beforeitsnews.com/politics/2012/10/rogue-u-s-general-arrested-for-activating-special-forces-teams-ignoring-libya-stand-down-order-2466104.html
And this … http://beforeitsnews.com/politics/2012/10/obama-fires-top-admiral-as-coup-plot-fears-grows-2466106.html
This is actually “old” news – i.e. I first saw references to this incident 1+ week ago.
Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until after the election to have this investigated by Congress because the MSM has made sure any news report/in-depth probe of Benghazi be BURIED so as to allow MSM drag Obama over the finish line, if they can.
Fortunately, for the past 4-5 days, Obama is being greeted by a LOT of hand-held signs along his cavalcades to rallies in PA, OH, WI (and even MN!) demanding answers from POTUS himself as to why gunships and other military aid was not sent to Benghazi. I suspect IT IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON VOTING in these crucial states.
WE can only hope the WHOLE sordid story will in fact come out.
I only just got the Internet back after the Sandy storm. So please excuse my being outside the OODA loop on this.
You can run all sorts of Monte Carlo simulations on the data. The odds slighly favor Obama but it depends on the Nov 6th turnout to see who wins. Obama wanted this out of reach before election day now the turnout in suburban, xurban, and rural parts of Nevada will be motivated.
I have been saying this for a while but Obama has lost a lot of democrats this time. He has solidified a base of hard left, socialist, and labor unions. I am not sure he even has the black and Jewish vote that democrats have counted on for many years. He will not have to lose much of the Jewish, Black or Hispanic vote to completely offset any gains he has made in picking up true communist and various other statist voters. In adopting policies the hard left approves of he loses the middle. The reaction of the hard left of belittling, threatening and intimidating the rest of the population then loses him even more. This is a good thing because it is effectively pushing the less statist democrats out of the party – effectively reforming the party so that those who are not hard left will go somewhere else. Bu the intimidation tactics of the left have made people afraid to tell the truth.
I also know that some conservative are somewhat distrustful of the polls and are actively lying to pollsters and encouraging others to do so as well. They are telling them; “I’m a democrat and voting for Obama” when they are not. Note, if even a small number do this, say 1% it would create a 2% error in the poll towards Romney. Many more people are simply refusing to answer polls which also adds to the margin of error in the polls because the pollsters are only talking to a very narrow section of voters. So a few people actively subverting polls could have a huge affect.
I have been saying for several elections that the polls are going to crash because of the changing way that people live and the ability of cellphones to block unknown users, the declining number of land telephone lines and the way that people get their news. This presents both potential opportunities and problems to conservatives but it really is an issue for the Statist because they must control the narrative
and opinions, otherwise they go to prison.
This election is a crucial battle in the fight to save civilization from lapsing back into the despotism of the all powerful ancient state complete with Caesar worship and fertility cults based upon placating nature with sacrifices of children. I find it amazing that the left scoff at me for saying that as they engage in what can only be called a religious devotion to the policies and person of Barrack Obama.
But make no mistake.I am not sure that the good win this fight though I have no doubt it will win the war.
It would take a lot to win Nevada because the Union is so organized for the Dems in that state.
PatrioticDuo, I doubt those reports on Gen Ham are correct. Sen Chaffetz said a couple weeks ago that he talked directly to Gen. Ham and he said that Ham was NEVER given orders for a rescue mission. I think what happened is that the military was ready to go…..they just never got the order. I just hope that the truth, whatever it is, eventually comes to light.