Nov 05 2012
I plan to come out with my predictions later today. Needless to say I have been waiting because I want to see Gallup’s last hurrah today before jumping in. But to be honest, after seeing the CNN poll today I am about ready to make Michael Barone look cautious:
The poll, released earlier tonight, shows a 49-49 tie among likely voters. But to get that result CNN had to use one of the most skewed samples we’ve seen this campaign (see page 29):
Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.
A D+11 sample! By comparison, the electorate in 2008, when Obama-mania was at its peak, was merely D+7, according to exit polls.
You know why you have to put out such a laughable poll to show anything other than a Romney blow out? Reverse engineering this puppy is easy.
If Obama is losing independents well into the double digits, and/or he is is losing left-of-center Dems in such numbers he cannot hold more than 80% of his party, then you have to ramp the Dem turn out numbers up to “absurd” to compensate. Another data item noted:
CNN conducts a poll where Romney leads independents by 22 points and it’s TIED.
Folks, if Obama is losing indies by 20%, he is losing a lot of dems in crossover as well. More here, and more later.
Update: Ed Morrissey chimes in:
So we are expected to believe that since 2008, (a) Obama has lost thirty points in the gap with independents, (b) Obama has lost fifteen points in the gender gap, and (c) Obama is still just four points below his 2008 share of the electorate? Only in a world where 41% of the voters will be Democrats and only 30% Republicans, and that world won’t be what we see tomorrow.
Watch out – You are entering the Twilight Zone!!