Jun 29 2006
The trend in the US electorate has been one of parity for decades. The Pew Research voter preference polls since 2000 showed a 33-33-33 nation between Reps-Indies-Dems. Check out this look at the make up of the electorate in 2004.
In Pew Center surveys conducted since the Iraq war earlier this year, 30% of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, 31% as Democrats and 39% as independents or other. When that combined sample is winnowed to registered voters, the partisan breakdown is just as narrow Â 33% Republican, 34% Democrat, 33% independent or other.
Any poll that deviates massively from these numbers is a flawed poll, because the electorate’s views do not change that much. Pollsters have always under estimated Republican support as has been seen in all the surprise wins for Bush and Reps despite contrary polls, leading the left to believe more in polls than votes. This is probably because conservative voters are tuning out and screening phone calls from surveyors (I know I do). Caller ID has really hurt all sorts of callers since people can chose to let calls that do not have familiar numbers roll to the answering machine. And many people are going to only cellular phones.
The USA Today poll out today is just garbage and that is clear by this one stunning claim:
Americans are increasingly likely to identify themselves as Democrats. Including those who â€œleanâ€ to one party or the other, 55% call themselves Democrats; 38%, Republicans. That’s the biggest edge for Democrats since 1998. By 54%-38%, the registered voters surveyed say they’d vote for a Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican one if the election were held today.
Some simple observations. In 1998, the Republicans were in no danger of losing Congress and Bill Clinton had been going through impeachment. In 2000, Al Gore – the sitting Vice President during incredible economic times, road this wave of Democratic support to a stunning loss. The numbers were bogus back then as they are now. All this shows is there is lot of turmoil in the electorate, fluidity. Most people are not happy with either party as Dems serially attempts to surrender and run from Iraq and Reps are so fixated on punishing people here working to make a living without permission they decided to leave our borders unprotected in a political stunt of petulance.
This Pew poll taken at the same time is a bit more reflective of the rising anger with all our leaders. It shows more desire to vote on the left (as does the USA Today poll), but it also shows more anger at the left leadership from the left. As far left challengers drop to mainstream democrats, that edge in emotional will disappear in a burst of frustration. That is because this election is driven by an obsession on the far left that they can impeach Bush before he ends his last term. 2006 is their only chance. And as it becomes clear the country is in no mood to give Democrats the reigns of power so they can impeach Bush/Cheney, turn tail on our Iraqi allies and raise our taxes the excitinment will turn to despair on the left when it becomes clear Bush will escape their wrath.