Jun 23 2016

Live Blogging Brexit – Brexit Wins!!

Published by at 8:37 pm under Brexit

Final (11:53) – yes, everyone is beginning to call it: BREXIT!!

11:50 PM EST: It seems to be over.  Birmingham – a major population center – just came in )with 80% of the vote tallied) and the “Leave” campaign did what it has done all night.  It pulled out a slim lead where I would guess Remain was suppose to win:

Birmingham

Remain 223,451 – 49.58% Leave 227,251 – 50.42%

Leave Majority 3,800 – 0.84%

Electorate 707,210

Turnout 450,702 – 63.73%

11:40 PM EST: The vote tally is now 75% complete with 96 districts left to report out of 382.  Most of the United Kingdom’s big cities are in, though there are some London suburbs yet to report in.  But usually in elections when you hit 75% reporting in a 4% gap is nearly impossible to overcome.  Right now the “Leave vote has a very comfortable lead:

Remain 48% 10,969,257
Leave 52% 11,775,367
Since I do not know UK population densities very well, I think I will hold off until 85% of the vote is in to celebrate, but I think I was right in my last post when I predicted the polls would under sample the “Remain” camp since that also represent supporting the political elite.
It is normal for a “Leave” voter to avoid the pollsters, given this type of voter does not trust the political elites and their entourage. A pollster being a key member of the entourage.
The message Brexit sends to the Democrats in America should be loud and clear – enough with the political elite.  We are going back to rule by “We The People“!
11:03 PM EST: We are coming up on critical mass for the vote tallying. With 58% of the districts reporting in, Leave is in a strong position:

Remain 48% 8,266,692
Leave 52% 8,804,956
Nearly all the “Remain” strongholds in Scotland are in. A good number of the districts around London are also in with what I am going to guess is less Remain votes the needed. It is still to early to be sure, but I am thinking the Brexit forces may have pulled this off!
10:00 PM EST: Leave takes back the lead:

Remain 49.8% 3,266,123
Leave 50.2% 3,293,818
Again, it looks like when “Remain” does win it is by a smaller than needed number. And there seem to be some very slim “Leave” wins that I am wagering were supposed to be in the “Remain” camp. Don’t know for sure, and I won’t be blogging to the bloody end, but this is a very exciting time to live!
9:53 PM EST: Wow, is this close or what!:
Remain 50.01% 2,877,575
Leave 49.99% 2,876,697
A mere 878 votes separating the two camps
9:50 PM EST: That did not take long:
Remain 50.4%2,676,117
Leave 49.6%2,634,362
A slim difference with two thirds of the vote tallies outstanding.
9:45 PM EST: I wish I knew the UK districts better, but with 19.4% of the districts in the “Remain” camp has taken slim lead, but it seems to be on wave of Remain strongholds reporting in (see the The Express site for a map). Scotland looks to be 50-60% in, and that is a Remain stronghold.  So I suspect the lead will flip back over here soon:
Remain 51% 2,503,424
Leave 49% 2,430,954
9:25 PM EST: To illustrate what I was seeing in the data here are two districts reporting about the same time:

Harlow

Remain 13,867 – 31.90% Leave 29,602 – 68.10%

Leave Majority 15,735 – 36.20%

Electorate 59,123

Turnout 43,469 – 73.52%

West Lothian

Remain 51,560 – 58.25% Leave 36,948 – 41.75%

Remain Majority 14,612 – 16.51%

Electorate 130,920

Turnout 88,508 – 67.60%

Note that West Lothian, which went for “Remain”, is over twice the size of Harlow, which went for “Leave”. But in the end, Leave received a net 15,735 votes in Harlow, and Remain only 14,612 in West Lothian. Leave beat out Remain using a fraction of the voters to do it.

I think the EU just lost a key member nation

9:03 PM EST: With 7% of the electorate in Leave is now ahead 54% to 46% (820,348 to 706,333 votes). This is a very strong showing for Leave this early in the game.  Most of the Remain wins are in Scotland, and so represent a smaller fraction of the electorate that has been counted so far. Basically Leave is winning in the more populated districts so they are racking up larger numbers.

Began 8:35 PM EST.  This is a momentous night for humankind.  As Trump said in his speech this week, will we learn if the people lead or the politician do in two of the world’s oldest democracies. The first test of that brave new world coming to reality is tonight in the United Kingdom the vote on the EU Referendum to stay in (led by politicians) or leave (led by the people).

Early results show a very strong showing for Leave in places where there was supposed to be a much closer win (see Sunderland, a Leave win by 30,464) and very tight wins where Remain was supposed to be stronger (see Newcastle-upon-Tyne, a Remain win by 1,807). There are too many location still out to predict (only 4% reporting in), but so far the news is not bad for Brexit.

Best sites to monitor results are:

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One response so far

One Response to “Live Blogging Brexit – Brexit Wins!!”

  1. kathie says:
    June 24, 2016 at 8:46 am

    Yes, the globel elite have lost! When there are people who still live in the 7th century, we need boarders. Just saying!