Jul 17 2006
Sunnis Learn A Hard Lesson
In what is probably the first large scale indication the US policy in Iraq is finally turning a corner we see the Sunni’s in Iraq ‘moderating’ their stance by asking for more US presence to quell the violence. It is no surprise three decades of anger and frustration were going to bubble over when the lid was lifted which Saddam Hussein brutally held over the factional fighting (which he also cultivated in a classic divide and conquer form of control). I was not surprised with seeing a lot of emotional pressure being released, and I actually expected a lot more. But as Ed Morrissey points out, the Sunni decision to resist a peaceful democracy was a harsh lesson on how not to find peace and prosperity
The US launched an offensive against Sadr’s militia this month, and hope to dial down the violence by sidelining Sadr. However, the root of Sunni danger comes from the Sunni refusal to engage early in the political process. They have no one to blame but themselves. Had they quit supporting the Ba’athist dead-ender insurgencies and joined in the electoral process from the beginning, they would have more political influence than they do now. The Shi’a and the Kurds practically begged them to participate, and even ensured that they got better representation on the constitution committee and in the executive branch than their votes ensured.Now that shortsightedness has come back to haunt them. Since so few volunteered for the Iraqi security forces, few Sunnis serve in the officer corps or in the enlisted ranks. They continue to fight against the Americans in some places, failing to coalesce behind a coherent strategy for their own survival.
Read the whole thing, it is classic Ed Morrissey insight to the nut of the situation. The Sunni’s are moderating, clearly. Their survival depends on it. Same with much of the Shia – it is only the radicals like Sadr that go on bloodletting rampages and they will be the next to be strung up in the streets. To die in a useless fight or to join forces in a possibly brighter future only comes to people who can grasp the futility of the fight and the brightness of co-existance. If you cannot fully appreciate the gulf that lies between these two choices you end up thinking either path will do. Our job in the ME is to demonstrate that is not true, and never will be true. For Iraq to succeed the majority need to select the path of co-existence. With more and more Sunni’s joining the majority of Shia and the stalward Kurds Iraq will mend. The pressure that had built up is dissipating. Iraqis never had the taste for more death and destruction beyond the hell that Saddam took them through. And as the pressure to fight fizzles out and the desire to live takes over, there will be a success in Iraq.
Iraq has large educated working middle class that can make something of themselves from the resources of their homeland (unlike the Palestinians). They have much more to live for than to die for. It just took time to sink in.
If I had to bet, I’d see the sunni’s in Iraq reacting to Assad losing his gamble. In other words, it is now obvious that they have NO FRIENDS. NOWHERE TO GO. And, the sunni’s; while they’re more competent than the shi’as. And,they rain important infrastructure for Saddam … had been backing violence through the Ba’thists. (Assad’s one, ya know?)
This “iranina playmate” thing-y was a matter of convenience.
Like china and russia. Not really bedfellows. But whores who compete with each other. Until something seems to shake the house. So they become “allies.”
I might point out something similar with the french and the brit’s. Both world wars, last century, got built up because of the lack of coordination between the diplomatic pants dance partners.
Anyway, Israel has changed the equation. And, Bush, by dropping the “shit” word to Tony Blair’s weaker cards; has also put in motion that it’s going to be a while before there’s a workable “ceasefire.” At least until iran understands Assad’s turmoil. He wants to live. He could care less about the mullahs. And, IF there had been hope there was going to be a “pie” to divide … where Americans were forced to double-deal with arabs … Who where taking America’s BILLIONS, and not providing infrastructure AFTER Saddam got toppled …
THIS IS WHERE THINGS HAVE CHANGED. I’d bet Sistani knows this. I’d bet Sadr’s goons are either gonna be put on a short leash; or somehow the terror in Iraq is gonna get mainly personal. Iran’s fingers are BURNING.
What just happened was NOT expected. There are NO MILITARY PLANS that can help hezbollah, now. And, all those missiles in lebanon, soon ALL kaput. (By the way, on an Israeli blog, where there’s more information available); the drug LORD area where nasrallah has gone to, to run and hide … is being POUNDED. So I’ll bet not only will the price of oil rise. The price of cocaine and heroin is gonna go through the roof!
Maybe, it’s not so obvious now?
But whatever iran started, Israel is well on the way of wrapping up.
And, the benefits, ahead, in Iraq will be phenomenal. None of the pieces will go back to be the same. Not for the french. Who were the toast of lebanon and syria. Or for the lebanese who hid from any responsibility. Ahead? Israel has already bulldozed, in, one kilometer. By the time they’re through there will be about a three mile wide border where NO hizbollah will dare to go.
Can Assad send up canon fodder, racing up the heights of the Golan? Sure. Young, uneducated, conscripts. And, given that Israel’s IDF can “see in the dark” … there’s no way this 40,000 or 50,000 thousand moves out. Carrying their arms on their shoulders. First group doesn’t get up. But falls back dead. Do this repeatedly, until the troops waiting to climb, run away. (Arabs run faster than just about any other group, outside of chimpanzees.)
While the name in Gaza, goes to GA and ZA. Or Gazoo. a 24-mile-long slip and slide. (Where there had once been Jews. And, a thriving agriculture business; now there are none.)
And, the drug business just took a hit, too!