Oct 31 2016
FL Early Voting 10_31_16: The Empire (Dems) Fight Back!
As always the data for this analysis comes from State of Florida.
Democrats had a good weekend. While they continue to drop off in the mail-in voting, they had a good surge with in-person voting that wiped out a significant portion of the GOP lead.
What was a 24,000+ lead in GOP ballots yesterday has been whittled down to a 8,912 ballot lead today. The ballot tallies are statistically tied up at 40%-40% between the GOP and Dems. The GOP dominates the mail-in vote, recording two record high days over the weekend. But Democrats had a banner day Sunday with in-person voting that gave them a win for the weekend.
Recall, the Democrats need to have the same performance that Obama did in 2012 (not 2008, as some media folks like to reference) to be viable. That year Dems had a 3% lead in the early voting in FL. That lead was critical because Obama barely squeaked out a 0.88% win overall. Without that early vote edge, Obama would not have won FL.
But one good day does not a trend make. So let’s look at the trends in early voting (please note I switched from a linear trend line to a 2nd order polynomial line given the clear change in trajectory)
As can be seen voting across the board looks to be tapering off. The Democrat in-person vote seems to be tapering off the least, but their mail-in voting is tapering off the most. The GOP vote trends look to fall in between. If we project out to Nov 3rd we see a tie in ballots submitted by each party. As long as the GOP stays even with the Democrats, Trump has a very good chance of winning Florida.
What will be interesting to see is if Democrat energy drops or stays the same this week given the blockbuster news from Friday. It clearly did not dampen the Democrat in-person ballots over the weekend. Unless these are fed up Dems voting for someone other than Hillary.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-31/two-early-voting-charts-look-disastrous-hillary
This should cheer you up a little.
And the polls coming out seem good, and I don’t even think the Comey stuff is fully baked. That said, I am not sure how reliable the outfit “Remington Research” is, but the D/R/I splits for the NC Trump +2 was D42/R34/I24 and race was 72White/24AA and 54/46 Female to Male.
They have PA +2 Clinton, Colorado +1 Clinton (2 Way), Nevada +4 Trump.
Those are eye popping to be sure.
I think many of the early voters on both sides are going to be die-hard partisans. The interesting part will be the people who have not made up their minds yet…and I think the last few days have overturned the table.