Nov 07 2016

Colorado Early Voting 11_07_16: Dem Turnout Cratering

Published by at 2:21 pm under 2016 Elections,All General Discussions

Source of this data is here.

In my last post on November 4th, I noted that the Democrat Early Voting¬† numbers were dropping off, while the GOP voting remained steady and the remaining groups (dominated by unaffiliated voters – a.k.a. “Independents”) where growing.

Colorado does not release their results over the weekend, so I was obviously anxious to see where things ended up today, the day before the election. Here is the cumulative votes for all three groups as reported this morning:

CO Early Vote By Party 11_07

The tallies are:

  • Dem: 645, 020
  • Rep: 652, 380
  • Ind: 554,629

The GOP has a lead of 7,360 ballots submitted. There is similar intensity across all three groups. So much for Hillary having an edge in GOTV.

But the real amazing insight comes from looking at the daily tallies. This is where you can see who is motivated to vote:

CO Early Vote By Day 11_07

As can be seen, it is usually the GOP voting that leads (but not all the time). The Independents and Other party voters are definitely becoming more intense here in the final days. You can begin to see a hint of the Democrat energy level tapering off.

This is much more apparent when we look at Percentage of the Total over time:

CO Early Vote Percent Party 11_07

It is obvious the Democrats in Colorado are not keeping up with the GOP – which has seen very steady participation.¬† It is the Independent and “Other” group who are really increasing in intensity over time. They represent a last minute surge.

So, are these late breaking Independents tipping to Hillary or Trump?

That is the $64,000 question!

If they break for Trump I would expect to see a landslide in Colorado – as well as many other places.

2 responses so far

2 Responses to “Colorado Early Voting 11_07_16: Dem Turnout Cratering”

  1. MarkN says:

    2012 – the party breakdown was 34% Dem, 29% GOP and 37% other. So look for the “others” to keep gaining as ballots are received.

  2. […] Is there energy on the Left? We are seeing the Dem early voting drop off in battleground states. I noted this in Colorado yesterday: […]