Aug 16 2006
ME War Will Be Back On Soon
I predicted here. long before one was in place, that Hezbollah, Syria and Iran had no interest in a real cease fire because Iran needs the diversion of International Community’s attention away from its nuclear weapons. I noted Hezbollah first violation of the proposed agreement here, where Hezbollah refused to stop fightin Isrealis still in Lebanon. I noted Hezbollah’s next violation of the now implemented agreement here where they refused to be disarmed. And I noted Hezbollah’s latest violation of the cease fire agreement here where they refused to move their weapons out of Southern Lebanon. Finally Israel has had enough and laid down the law:
The IDF will have to resume operations in Lebanon if the expanded United Nations force being assembled does not fulfill its obligation to dismantle Hizbullah, an official in the Prime Minister’s Office warned on Tuesday.
Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah reportedly reached a deal allowing Hizbullah to keep its weapons but refrain from exhibiting them in public. Israeli officials called the arrangement a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which passed over the weekend and was approved on Sunday by the cabinet.
“The resolution is clear that Hizbullah needs to be removed from the border area, embargoed and dismantled,” the official said. “If the resolution is not implemented, we will have to take action to prevent the rearming of Hizbullah. I don’t think backtracking will serve any useful purpose. There has to be pressure on Hizbullah to disarm or there will have to be another round.”
Iran cannot afford peace right now – they are too busy trying to build their nuclear weapon. My fear is they will use it on Israel as their first demonstration of their new power. Which of course will be their last demonstration.
Update: Ed Morrissey has a good take on this situation at his site. I personally think the US and Israel gave the UN and Hezbollah enough rope to figuratively hang themselves and push any more UN options off the table. We shall see what the coming days bring. I expect a provacation attack by Hezbollah any day now.
Iran has said they are going to respond to the UN issue of halting nuclear development on Aug 22 n’d. Oh that oh so special date.
If there are any early enablers of Iran nuclear advancements, now is their time to speak, or forever hold their peace.
As an indicator, I would love to be able to have someone make a realistic analysis if it looks like people at the NSA and NRO are working overtime shifts this week.
It will be interesting to watch to see how Israel reacts to non compliance of the resolution. Remember when the war started everyone was sure Israel was determined to destroy Hezballah, and then watched in awe as Israel seemed to demonstrate a lack of commitment to accomplishing that goal. With non compliance already announced by Lebanon and Hezballah, Israel has the opportunity now to continue and finish the job but it is not clear that Olmert has the desire to do it.
The situation is similar to that of the US at the end of the Vietnam War. The US concluded a treaty with the north and went home. Then a couple of years later, the North invaded the South and neither the US nor the other international gurantors of the treaty wanted to get involved. It seems that there is a great danger that the result of this UN resolution be to cede Lebanon to Hezbullah in the same way?
If anyone seriously thought that the crooked ‘Oil-for-Food’ minions at the United Nations were going to stand by and defend the resolution to disarm Hezbollah, let’s just look at their track record… can anyone say 1441, 1553, 1559…and the list goes on and on and on. The war between Israel and Hezbollah/Syria/Iran/Hamas has not even begun yet. What real incentives do the Iranian/Hezbollah have to end it? It deflects international pressure and media from Ahmadinejad’s nuclear weapons program and at the same time gives the initiator for the use of such weapons on Israel – something that he has stated more than once since his 2005 election.
Well if Isreal goes in guns ablazing again no one can say they did not try. In fact I think that was the whole point. I think it was also designed to give the local Arabs cover for not coming into rescue the Shia who they hate anyway.
BTW, I heard that Nasrallah has threated to kill Saniora. Talk about a rock and a hard place.