Aug 17 2006
Senate ’06 Update
Santorum’s rebounding in the polls is not only amazing, it is a harbinger for the dems. I said before if Santorum wins (or even comes close) that means there is national tide swelling – and it is not going to be a tide that sweeps out Reps. And that tide seems to be coming in. Santorum is now within 6% of Casey in the latest Quinnipiac Poll – which means he is in striking distance. Even before 9-11 polls had a 3-5% tilt to the left so that a Dem needed to be 5% or more ahead to hang on in a cliff hanger. I think that skew is larger now, but even if it is not Santorum is picking up steam. So is Kean in NJ, where is a death knell for a heavily Democrat state. Tennessee and Virginia were never really in play – so they will stay Rep. And Lieberman will win as an independent (though I think he may switch caucuses). In Maryland I think Steele will win giving the Reps a second seat. Talent and Burns are also seeing the polls trend back their way, safing those seats. Minnesota will likely go Rep. And Dems are vulnerable in MI, WA and WV. Reps in MO and PA. So I remain bullish on the Senate with a 2 seat pick up for the Reps. The more Santorum and Burns come out of poll trouble the more we will likely see sinking on the part of the Dems – if I am correct. We will know in September when the polls are more predictive.
Geez, I hope you’re even close! Byrdland might be a stretch tho.
AJ
Most of the polls I have seen, which I look at like political advertisements by the AP and Reuters because of their consistent loading up on dems and independents over identified repubs and then using fudge factors to supposedly balance the results.
The poll results are the headline, the demographic breakdowns and the questions posed tell more of the story.
Virginia is not in play? Wanna bet? George ‘macaca’ Allen’s lead has shrunk from 19 points to 3 in latest Survey USA poll.
All these races listed as TOSS UPS by RCP are polling toward the Dem side.
Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio
Now that GOP Senate Candidate Bob Corker in TN is being sued for profiting $4.7 million on an land deal that broke environmental law… TN will be up for grabs as well.
http://www.commercialappeal.com/mca/politics/article/0,1426,MCA_1496_4930394,00.html