Updates Below – added Rasmussen poll

A new ARG poll has some interesting numbers when compared to the Qinnipiac poll which came out last week. First off, the ARG poll theoretically shows a tight race:

Among likely voters in November, 44% say they would vote for Lieberman, 42% say they would vote for Lamont, 3% say they would vote for Alan Schlesinger, and 11% are undecided.

As a CNN report on the poll notes, the big difference is the number of undecideds which are 2% in the Qinnipiac Poll. Lamont is at the same level in both polls as is Schlessinger. And the break down among Reps, Dems and Indies is about the same as well. Dems are 65-30 for Lamont. Reps are 57-18 Leiberman and Independents (the largest voter group) has Leiberman ahead 48-38. Which is terrible news for Lamont because dems only make up one third of the electorate according to ARG’s model.

Clearly the undecideds broke for Leiberman in the Qinnipiac poll and the ARG poll did not ‘push’ this group into either camp. But details in the ARG poll show they will go to Leiberman because only 5% of Dems are undecided and cannot make up the gap. If the Rep and Indie undecideds follow the trend of their general groups then Lamont loses (he is behind now and will lose more Reps and Indies than he gains). But it could be worse than that. The undecideds in the ARG poll are heavily against Lamont:

Of the 11% of likely voters undecided in the US Senate ballot, 57% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 43% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman, and 4% have a favorable opinion of Lamont, 41% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont, and 55% are aware of Lamont but do not know enough about him to have an opinion.

The high negatives for Lamont (negative 38 verses Joe’s postive 14) is a real killer. Lamont is polling around 42% and that may be his ceiling, Schlessinger is around 4% and that looks like his ceiling as well. That leaves Leiberman a killer 54% if these are the ceilings for the other two candidates. That 54% level is right in line with the Qinnipiac poll. I bet these numbers stay firm unless Democrats run from Lamont – which is totally possible. As I posted earlier, I have my doubts that the Democrat support for Lamont is going to be 65-35, I believe it will end up being right in line with the 52-48 primary results. That would make Lamont’s chances basically hopeless. Either way, these two polls are not saying anything different, they are just presenting the data in a slightly different way. Watch as the lefties delude themselves into thinking Lamont has momentum!

Update: We know some top level CT democrats have already broken ranks and supported Joe, and it appears now Labor is also standing by Leiberman.

At a rally in New Haven today, representatives of about 20 unions say they’re supporting Lieberman because of his experience and credentials. Lamont is expecting an endorsement tomorrow from the United Auto Workers.

The Lamont defection is already beginning

Update: Rasmussen has come out with numbers which appear, again at a glance, to confirm the ARG poll. Rassmussen cautions that the new poll is statistically identical to the previous poll where the Leiberman lead was higher. I take Scott at his words so I will look at both to see the internals (since I don’t pay pollsters!). The latest poll data:

Lieberman now attracts 45% of the vote in Connecticut’s three-way U.S. Senate race, Democrat Ned Lamont gets 43% and Republican Alan Schlesinger brings up the rear with a meager 6%

…

Schlesinger now attracts 17% of Republican voters, while Lieberman attracts 62% of Republicans.

And now the previous poll details

Lieberman earns support from 46% of Connecticut voters while Lamont is the choice of 41% … Republican Alan Schlesinger earns just 6% of the vote…

Lieberman still attracts 35% of votes from Democrats. Lamont will have to find a way to trim that number without alienating unaffiliated voters. Lieberman is viewed at least somewhat favorably by 65% of unaffiliated voters compared to 49% for Lamont.

These numbers line up well with the ARG poll (65-35 Dems for Lamont, 57-18 Reps for Leiberman). Since the Rasmussen internals look like the ARG internals, then it is safe to assume all these polls are seeing about the same situation and are (a) not pushing undecideds in the ARG or Rassmussen polls and (b) focusing on different internals.