Aug 24 2006
PA Senate Definitely Tightening
If Santorum is making a come back in the polls then I suspect the tide is turning from Dems to Reps fairly strongly. If a rising tide lifts all boats, then Santorum’s nearly sunk campaign would be the last to break above the tide. So I am really pleasantly surprised to see Santorum now within 5 points of Casey and a movement of a lot of voters away from Casey and into the undecided columns. Once the rethinking begins the race will be transformed one way or the other.
“It’s very expensive and very difficult to try and poll only “likely voters” during a non-presidential election, and most polling firms don’t even bother. Most polls this year don’t even screen for people who describe themselves as “registered voters.”
So these polls may reflect real public anger, but they’re highly questionable as a gauge for what voters will do.
Also, polling firms seem unable to correct a persistent bias in favor of Democrats. “There has been a long-term tendency for Democrats to do better on this generic ballot question than they in fact do at the polls, so considerable care is required in thinking about this number,” notes Charles Franklin of the University of Wisconsin. “If a Democratic lead in the generic ballot were sufficient for control of the House, the Democrats would have won the House in five of the last six congressional elections, including 1994.”
Franklin says unhesitatingly that the atmosphere is now very favorable to Democrats – and even that, if today’s situation were analogous to elections before 1992, Republicans would surely lose control of the House. The size of the Democratic advantage in the generic ballot, even accounting for the bias, would once have been enough to flip lots of seats nationally – since it indicates that Democrats should get something like 6 percent more votes nationally in November than Republicans.
“From 1946-1992, a one-percentage point gain in the Democratic share of the national vote produced a gain of 8.2 [House] seats (and vice versa for Republicans),” Franklin writes. But: “Since 1994, a one-point gain in votes has produced a gain of only 1.9 seats.”
There are indications as well that, as the elections approach, Republican politicians in contested Senate races are beginning to close the gap against their Democratic rivals and are receiving high personal approval scores. ”
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/false_prophets_of_the_06_vote_opedcolumnists_john_podhoretz.htm
AJ
I saw a bit of coverage today that had the left dragging out Gary Hart. I know most people dont even know who this person is.
How anyone could think that reviving this fossil as a smart move is beyond me.
I don’t know which to do first, shake my head or grab my wallet!
Meanwhile in other news Ted Kennedy is still tilting at windmills and aided and abbetted by Mister Walty and the democratic senator from Kenya Mr Obama is pressing the flesh with his voter base.
Meanwhile Kofi Anonoumus is trying to solidify his appointment under Shillary’s administration as head of the Dept of Energy! Ya know the Oil for nothing program.