Aug 31 2006
Democrats Sinking In Polls
Polls are snapshots, and not very predictive. Poll trends are predictive if there is movement. And in the generic ballot between Dems and Reps there has been quick and significant movement away from the dems. The Washington Times is reporting (and I confirmed on Gallup-subscription required but you can watch an ad for a one time visit) that the Dems have lost all their lead over the reps since the UK Airline Bomb plot was publicized and are now tied – which means the Dem wave is ebbing and going out to sea. Here are some numbers from Gallup to show the trend:
Registered Voters:
2006 Aug 18-20: D-47, R-45 = +2
2006 Aug 07-10: D-50, R-41 = +9
2006 July 28-30: D-51, R-40 = +11
2006 July 06-09: D-51, R-41 = +10
2006 Jun 23-25: D-54, R-38 = +16
Regular Voters:
2006 Aug 18-20: D-48, R-48 = 0
2006 Aug 07-10: N/A
2006 July 28-30: D-50, R-42 = +8
2006 July 06-09: D-51, R-42 = +9
2006 Jun 23-25: D-55, R-38 = +17
That is a drastic collapse in two short months, when the public is usually not paying attention. I am seeing signs everywhere of a massive political shift, and it is not heading towards the dems. You can see it as Reps who were in tight races are breathing easier, dems who were ahead dropping, Reps losing now competitive. The trend lines are clear and they are sharp. Wonder how much news this will garner?
Update: Well, someone noticed.
Aj:
I think the left makes a mistake when reading polls. They see that bush is down and so thye assume the answer is Ned Lamont..when it truth the guy they ned is Harry Truman. I have heard a lot of people saying that Bush is too nice and that is part of the dissatisfaction. The country is not turning into Sheehan land.
My prediction (Again)
Republicans in 2006:
Senate +3
House +10
My prediction (Again)
Republicans in 2006:
Senate + 1
House – 2
Mine
Senate 2+
House 3+
AJStrata
Well, I’d be satisfied if any one of your predictions came true, but, of course, I like Patch’s the best. An awful lot can happen in the 68 days left before the election, but the trend is certainly in the right direction. The upward revision of the 2nd quarter GDP to nearly 3%, the leveling off of interest rates, the failure of the real estate market bubble to burst are all going to be tough things for the Donks to spin in a negative way. Of course they’ll spin the drop in gasoline prices as a Carl Rove plot, but I think the average person will see through that.
Has anyone besides me noticed that since the polls are taking a bit of a push back against the dems the Kos has been vaporized on the talking heads circuit?
Sort of reminds me when Hillary had a cork stuck in her mouth during Billy boys presidential run, since whenever she opened her mouth it was like greasing the poll.
I have seen some data recently correlating Bush’s poll numbers with the price of gasoline; when gas prices drop Bush’s poll numbers go up. Also, I have seen predictions that by November gas prices will be down to around two dollars. Baring unforeseen events, maybe even Patch’s predictions are too negative 🙂
Patch:
You are a brave man.
Patch, you are such a pessimist! As a sometimes political observer, who incidentally watched the ’52 Democrat convention on TV, I have a somewhat unorthodox view of
election dynamics. There aren’t many.
Looking at the Speaker of the House from 1895 to the present
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives)
we see that the Reps were the majority for 34 years, then the Dems for 53 now the Reps for 12. The cycle of American politics seems to be 1-2 generations.
Regular voters, as opposed to people who answer the phone for a pollster, get their politics in the cradle. They are party loyalists. If they do switch parties they do so only once. Why do they switch? The start of the Dem domination is obvious – the depression. The explanation for 1994 is a very tangled web that would bore the pants off of any who have managed to make it this far. Suffice it to say that a corner was turned, mainly because the Dem playbook is out of the 30’s.
Since ’94 we have had two events that have transformed our politics – 9/11/2001 and the 2004 election. The 2004 election was a momentous event in the history of our country. In 2000 approximately 100 million people voted a tie. In 2004 120 million people gave GWB an historic (in modern times) margin of victory. That’s a 20% increase in turnout. These new voters are likely to come back this year to emphasize their feelings. They went for Bush 3 to 2.
There are no major issues in 2006. As Ann Althouse posted yesterday, there isn’t one anti-war protester on the campus of The University of Wisconsin. The economy is fine. We did have the London bombing plot and the Israel/Lebanon kerfuffle.
This election, like most mid-terms is all about turnout. The Rove machine is in high gear. The Dems are especially inept. I go with Path, with maybe 2 more in the house and one more in the senate.