Aug 31 2006
Polls are snapshots, and not very predictive. Poll trends are predictive if there is movement. And in the generic ballot between Dems and Reps there has been quick and significant movement away from the dems. The Washington Times is reporting (and I confirmed on Gallup-subscription required but you can watch an ad for a one time visit) that the Dems have lost all their lead over the reps since the UK Airline Bomb plot was publicized and are now tied – which means the Dem wave is ebbing and going out to sea. Here are some numbers from Gallup to show the trend:
2006 Aug 18-20: D-47, R-45 = +2
2006 Aug 07-10: D-50, R-41 = +9
2006 July 28-30: D-51, R-40 = +11
2006 July 06-09: D-51, R-41 = +10
2006 Jun 23-25: D-54, R-38 = +16
2006 Aug 18-20: D-48, R-48 = 0
2006 Aug 07-10: N/A
2006 July 28-30: D-50, R-42 = +8
2006 July 06-09: D-51, R-42 = +9
2006 Jun 23-25: D-55, R-38 = +17
That is a drastic collapse in two short months, when the public is usually not paying attention. I am seeing signs everywhere of a massive political shift, and it is not heading towards the dems. You can see it as Reps who were in tight races are breathing easier, dems who were ahead dropping, Reps losing now competitive. The trend lines are clear and they are sharp. Wonder how much news this will garner?
Update: Well, someone noticed.