Sep 09 2006
Dashing The Democrat Dream
John Hinderaker at Powerline notes what could be a political bombshell in the race leading up to this fall’s elections. A PA website has word that the PA Senate race is now a statistical tie between incumbent Santorum and challenger Casey:
Members of Camp Casey in Washington unwittingly revealed to a source of the Fly that an internal poll shows Rick Santorum within the margin of error, trailing narrowly at 47-44. Worse, Casey’s people haven’t yet formulated a sound strategy for stemming Santorum’s momentum, which they attribute to the craftiness of ad-meister John Brabender.
Originally I predicted a 2-3 seat pick up by the Reps this year in the Senate. I was prepared for the summer droop but felt confident the exposure of the far left as the core element of the Democrat base would push moderates away. I was not expecting the Reps to implode on various issues, most notably the immigration issue where hardliners have been stuck on the “Fence First’ silver bullet silliness. More on that later. But the Dems went all out with their rabid liberal base and have been open about retreating in the face of slow progress in Iraq, dismantling our anti-terrorism programs because they naively thought the war was over, and more.
So the dip in support was deeper than I expected and I recently reduced my prediction to a 1-2 seat pick (always the maverick it seems). But I have posted many times I am watching the PA race because Santorum was so far in the hole there if he were to come back it would be the clearest indication yet a tide was swelling up. One that would break right instead of the common expectation (or is the desparation) of the media the Dems will finally have history on their side. If this poll is true I will recommit to my prediction that the Reps will extend their majority in the Senate by 2-3 seats. The other race I want to see polls on is the WV race!
Very good news. I am glad that Certain conservatives are deciding not to “punish” Santorum for supporting Specter in his past Senate race. Talk about silliness. WV is a race I am watching too and I might try to get some info for you if I find any
Election Prediction
For months, I have been saying that the results of the Fall 2006 elections will result in the following Republican gains
House +10
Senate +3
John Hawkins of Right Wing News has the following stories:
The GOP’s Top 18 Pick-Up Opportunities In The House For 2006
The Most Competitive Senate Races For 2006 (3rd Edition)
Worth the read. The news for the Republicans looks better than the LameStream Media will admit.
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AJ,
Thanks for the great posting as usual. Off topic – there is a new captured Iraqi document translation that says Iraq had a mole or a spy within the AP feeding them information. You can view the translation here – http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1698518/posts?page=37
Patch, you are still a gloomy Gus. A.J., you make the same mistake that most politically involved people make – you think that the people who actually vote have been paying attention to all of this s**t.
Politics 101:
People get their politics in the cradle. If they ever do switch parties in their life they only do it once. Starting in 1895 the Reps controlled Congress for 34 years, then the Dems for 54 and since 1994 the Reps again. The Old South was solid Democrat for almost 100 years, 4 generations. It is now solid Republican. The demographics overwhelmingly show a gain in population in GOP counties.
In 2000, 100 million people voted and it was a tie. In 2001 we had an event, a bit of history, that was in the same league as the Civil War, the depression and WWII. In 2004, 120 million people voted – those 20 million new voters went Republican by 3 to 2.
Polls are at best meaningless, at worst insidious. I remember the first big one – 1948 – WRONG. (I do indeed remember it, and also the first televised political conventions in 1952 – 7″ Dumont with a fish-eye magnifier to make it a 10″). The frickin’ exit polls were wrong in 2004!!
This election will depend on turnout, turnout, turnout! The Dems have minimum wage, interest on college loans and higher taxes. That’s really gonna hype em. Oh, and Iraq. I was around for Korea and Vietnam. It took 50,000 dead draftees to make a significant difference. And then it was the Dems who came up short.
Enough ranting. A couple of days ago we had a primary election here in Florida. The Governorship is open – should be a significant political battle. In 2004 both parties drew about 1.1 million in the primary. This year the Reps had 1 million and the Dems 900,000. Goodby Nancy. Goodby Harry. Goodby Howard.