Oct 10 2006
Bad News In The Polls
Well, the media has been able to create the impression Mark Foley represents the GOP in some recent polls out. The range of lead for the Dems is between 13 and 23 points (A href=”http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2006/images/10/09/rel24a.pdf”>CNN, USA Today/Gallup, ABC News/WaPo, CBS News – H/T TCP). Surprisingly, the usually left leaning CBS News poll is one of those not signaling a major problem for Reps in the upcoming elections. These results are strangely at odds with the Democrace Corpse poll out earlier which showed litte change in the electorate due to Foleygate. I still see the polls varying widely and that still indicates to me the pollster’s models are out of whack to some degree, but I am not sure how much.
The fate of this country lies in the conservatives. Too many are planning to sit home because they don’t have the fortitude to try anymore. If they cannot have their way the plan to punish those who stood by them all this time and allow the Democrats the opportunity to repeal all of Bush’s tax cuts, surrender Iraq to Al Qaeda and Iran, and close down the monitoring of terrorists communications to their contacts here in the US (while we work to get FISA warrants to cover ALL the communications of the people here in the US, not just the overseas ones to known terrorists). And to top it all off, the Democrats will have their investigations into everything Bush did, and will no doubt find surprising results that they cannot ignore, as they promised, and they will push for impeachment. All this because conservatives collapsed and quit on the movement.
Personally, any conservative who fails to push through election day is one we can affort to go without. The only exceptions are those in CT voting for Lieberman. The rest are just doing “a Buchannan” and showing their petulance instead of their strength and dedication. If we find Speaker Pelosi in the House next year – it will be because of conservatives not fighting back . We have beat the liberal media just about every year since 1980. The one big exception was 1992, the last time conservatives got impatient and punished the country with Bill Clinton. Less punishment and more energy is what is needed now.
Sad Reasoning to Vote Republican…
From an actual conservative blog:
The fate of this country lies in the conservatives. Too many are planning to sit home because they ……
The Border Fence Bill Will Be Signed…
I never wrote about the speculation by Mickey Kaus on a pocket veto of the Border Fence Bill because I really didn’t understand it and I didn’t want to jump the gun. Well, according to Captain Ed, the Presiden’t support for this is …
AJ, I live in a solidly red state. And while the MSM, pollsters and those who are in the left column are telling us that Republicans are so disgusted over Foley gate that they are going to sit out the election, that is not what I hear on the street. Yes, Republicans are disgusted over the actions of Foley. But…..he’s gone. He resigned. He will never darken the halls of Congress again. He is being investigated for criminal activity and it is now up to law enforcement to take care of him. Good riddance. But it doesn’t have a damn thing to do with our elections this November and we are not voting for Foley, we are voting for someone we will send to D.C. to represent our district. No matter how much hype the MSM, pollsters and Dems want to give this election, it boils down to the fact that the elections are pertinent to local interests and local government. What a Florida congressman does has nothing to do with someone trying to represent Iowa farmers.
Perhaps Texans are a little more in tune with the antics of the Dems because of DeLay as we watched the TxDems sue to keep DeLay on the ballot simply because they are so sure they can defeat a write-in candidate. But even independents felt like we should be able to have a choice and if DeLay was not going to run, let someone else be put on the ballot in his stead. And we realize that while DeLay, who has not been convicted of any crime, resigned while William Jefferson of our neighbor to the east, still draws a paycheck. To Texans, the DeLay fiasco seems nothing more that dirty politics at it’s worst with the Dems trying to win anyway they can.
I do not really think that Republicans will sit this out. This is not what I am hearing. Quite the opposite. They are determined to get out the vote. And they are not going to vote for candidates that represent the polar opposite of what they believe. I cannot speak for other states, but Texans are working hard to prevent hearing “Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi”. You can look for Austin to vote left, but that is nothing new. Austin (Travis County) always votes left. And while the left feels if you tell the country something long enough (that the right is going to stay at home or vote left) the country will believe it, I think this time they are dead wrong.
In 2004, Republicans started pushing back just two weeks before the election with their “get out the vote” drive. Watch for it to happen again.
Oh, No…
Oh, no. The polls look bad. Real bad. The Repubs are bracing for losing seven to thirty seats in the House and some are already losing their shit minds. Generic Democrats are doing well in the polls and the real fear is that real Democrats will do…
About those polls ……
The GOP is tanking in the polls as a result of the trumped up Foleygate scandal, and as a result, the Dems and media are gleeful and more optimistic than ever that they’ll snag back control of Congress next month.
AJ Strata takes a look at those …
Pissing and Moaning…
I am getting pretty sick of the constant whining from folks on the right who are demanding that their little pet issue gets resolved or else they will stay home or vote Dem on election day. Grow the fuck up, you bunch of crybabies. They se…
NY Times on Republican Extinction Week Again, Part 9439479949494…….
The New York Times is doing it’s best to convince Republicans that they should stay home on Election Day, because after all, “With four weeks left before Election Day, the poll indicates that the scandal involving Mr. Foley, a former Republican con…
I am sorry AJ has fallen for this. Polls taken on weekends generally favor Dems. Generic balloting polls are never accurate.
In 1994, the gop was 7 to 10 behind the dems.
And in 2004, exit polls had Kerry obliterating Bush for President by something like nine to one.
Then the Republicans got off work and went to vote.
Keep the faith.
Buchanan did not abandon the GOP. The GOP abandoned him,
and conservatism. And the Iraq War was fomented by NEOconservatives,a hybrid originating in Trotskyism.
Ken:
Buchannan is freak. In his own way he is worse than Foley.
Aj:
this is an itneresting post at anklebitingpundits.com on these polls. Check out the demographics.
Perdogg,
I am well aware of the weekend poll problem and I am of the opinion, and have stated many times, that the polls are really out of whack this year. With that said, a 20+ spread implies a real difference. 5% is an error. 20% is a real difference.
Now I personally think the common sense Americans are so fed up they are not talking anymore, not responding to polls anymore. Not engaging in the dialogue anymore. My opinion is they will go vote in the Reps and cripple the Dems for good (and show why pollsters have to adjust when their numbers go whacky and stop trying to use the same failed models).
I think you will find we agree more than you think. But it was a good opportunity to make some points with those Reps considering staying home in frustration.
AJ:
This is from the post indicated above:
In the NYT poll, 14% of respondents aren’t even eligible to vote. And of those 86% that are registered, a full 41% didn’t vote, and an additional 10% don’t remember. And while I’m no math major, it would seem to me that of the total respondents to this poll, a full 50% of them either aren’t registered to vote or didn’t vote in the last midterm election. So again, please tell me, how it is that any conclusions can be drawn from this poll. Further, a full 21% of registered voter respondents didn’t even show up to vote in the 2004 Presidential election.
Further, just looking at the demographics should give you pause. The poll is made up of 35% Democrats and only 30% Republicans, even though in 2004 party ID was even. While that’s not to say that it will be exactly the same this time, it should give pause.
Further, of the poll respondents that voted in the 2004 Presidential election, 38% voted for Kerry or Nader, while only 37% voted for Bush. President Bush won in 2004 by about 3.5%.
14% of respondents had no religion. In 2004, only 10% of voters had “no†religion†and voted overwhelmingly for Kerry.
Even more telling is that in the NYT poll, 50% of respondents either “never†attend church or do so only a few times a year. In the 2004 election, those people made up only 43% of the electorate and voted for Kerry by about a total of +15%. (In fact in this poll 20% of voters “never†attend church, while in 2004 that number was 15%, and Kerry won them by a whopping 26%.
When it comes to the age of the poll respondents, 22% were between 18-29 even though in 2004, only 17% of voters came from this age category, and voted for Kerry by +9%.
The Demographics of the WP poll are even more ridiculous. In that poll, Democrat respondents outnumber GOP respondents by a full 11% (38-27%). Plus, 3 of the 4 nights in the WP poll are weekends, and the poll director of the WP has previously admitted that weekend polls favor Democrats.
And yes, the numbers in both polls are dismal for the GOP, except that these polls are meaningless because we don’t know the Congressional districts of the respondents. Only about 40 CD races are competitive. Where are the respondents in these polls from?
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Now of course that does not mean the polls are good news for Republicans, but it does mean they may or may not be viable.
Polling On The November Election Outcome…
Since all politics is local, the party control of Congress will depend on the outcome of 435 separate local elections, and there are only a handful of races that are competitive or likely to change hands. RCP puts the figure at 40. That’s roughly 10%….
Terrye:
It surprises me not the least you prefer a semi-closeted
dishonest queen, who, however, towed the Bush/neocon line
on the failed Iraq war, to a normal America Firster.
Terrye, Ken said:”prefer a semi-closeted
dishonest queen, ”
This is how dishonest Democrat Frenchmen(you’re aware Ken is French) behave. They see nothing wrong with Gay people, but then they slam them as Ken did.
The sentence he used is akin to using the “N” word.
But on the the important topic. AJ said above.”Now I personally think the common sense Americans are so fed up they are not talking anymore, not responding to polls anymore. Not engaging in the dialogue anymore. My opinion is they will go vote in the Reps and cripple the Dems for good”
I agree with him. Conservatives are so fed up with hearing all the negativism they just want to get to the vote and get it over with. I think the Dems are gonna be destroyed when they find out everyone HAS NOT bought their story.
I agree with Aggressive Tendencies absolutely.
I have never paid any attention to polls, good or bad for republicans. I think they are inherently flawed.
My theory about the exit polls in the 2004 election is that voters mistook poll takers for the press and refused to talk to them.
From Newsweek, Set 2002
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3068006
Enforcement;
Ken is French?…….Now I know why he and I have been bumping heads since I found this site. This whole French/American attitude war started when the French protested about the bombing of their railroads by the US Air Force before the Normandy invasion and their demand that WE PAY for any damage caused for liberating them. Check out ‘Eisenhower At War’ by his grandson David Eisenhower. The whole French/America war started right there.