Oct 23 2006
If WaPo Poll Was True, Lieberman Would Be Losing
A recent WaPo poll claims independents favor dems 2-1. If that was true then Lieberman would be losing in CT. Allen would be far behind in VA. And Talent would be losing in MO. The fact is the poll is a national poll and obviously has attracted a strange sample (over the weekend). If the independents were 2-1 against the Reps, then the polls in each race would show a landslide wipe out because independents equal if not exceed partisans in many states. In CT the independents swamp Dems and Reps, yet Lieberman is running away with the race as a incumbent, pro-Iraq war candidate. If independents were flocking to Dems in this manner, Dems would pick up 50-60 house seats. Not going to happen. Not sure how the poll was so skewed, but it defies reality. In a 33%D – 33%R – 33%I nation, to lose the I’ by 2-1 means 55%D-44%R in the House. In other words the Dems would see a 240-195 sear advantage in Congress, or a 60 seat swing! Yeah, right.
I hope the dems keep on saying they are winning. They think it will make republicans stay home. I think it will have the opposite effect. Republicans and true conservatives do not want the dems in power again. The dems have said over and over again that there is no war on terror. There is no danger. Bush is just trying to scare us. They completely ignore the terrorists’ own words. They have promised to destroy us and our country. The dems have done everything in their power to thwart this administration from doing what is best for the country. No wonder we think they are in league with the terrorists. I can only hope all this pot sure confidence will make the dems stay home. After all, they are caught between a rock and a hard place. Most dems want national security and the party lines are no national security. They don’t want to vote republican and hesitate to vote democrat. The inner war of the dems is a pleasure to see. I have despised the democrat party for 30 years and all that has gone on lately has not changed my mind but enhanced it. The democrat party goes to new lows every day.
Early voting in Texas began yesterday. Waiting for the long lines to wind down before I vote. Think the lines will wind down by tomorrow so plan to vote tomorrow!
National polls are useless at determining how many seats will be picked up by each party. The reason for this is quite simple.
Let’s say we have state A and state B that make up nation X. State A has 9,000,000 people, state B has 1,000,000. In a national poll, it is found that 60% of nation X support the Democrats, and 40% support the Republicans.
Now it just so happens that 90% of state B is going to vote for a Republican to represent them, in other words, 900,000 people. This means that 3,100,000 people in state A are going to vote Republican, about 34% of that state. The rest in state A are going to vote Democrat, 76%, or 5,900,000 people.
In this scenario, a national poll has found 60% supporting Democrats, seeming to indicate that Democrats will win both the seats in state A and B. Yet one seat went Republican, and one Democrat.
Thus the Washington Post poll that Independents favor Dems 2-1 nationally is completely meaningless as far as the Congressional elections are concerned. At the most, it can only serve as an indicator.
It’s quite useful, though, if you intend to influence voters. What it’s really showing, though, is that the larger urban centers of America are opting for the Democrats, while more rural areas are probably opting for Republicans. Which is something we all know. Which, again, is completely useless at pointing to how each party will do on Election Day.
I don’t plan to vote until Nov 7. In my area in the last election, they “found” 11,000 early votes after the votes were counted. Die hard dems are rampant around here. You can’t even have a republican sign in your yard without someone coming on your property to pull it up.