In a post last week I had reviewed the RCP top 27 House races and felt, at that time, Dems would pick up 6-9 seats. So where has the week since brought us? Let’s see. To see what is different this week, I am going to simply refer folks back to the original posts and note “No Change” in those races not seeing much movement or news. If the race’s position in the RCP ranking changes, I will note that with bold-italics on the race rank.

Probable Rep

6. CO-7: (Open – R) – No Change.

12. IN-2: (Chocola – R) – No Change.

17. IN-9: (Sodrel – R) – Was #16 on RCP list. Slight bump away from Sodrel, but still within the bias correction. No Change in standing.

22. IL-6: (Open – R) – Was #19 on RCP list. As I predicted, this race was trending Rep and has moved more that direction. No Change in standing.

21. MN-6: (Open – R) – Was #20 on RCP list. I was correct to ignore Star Tribune Poll. A more recent Survey USA poll shows this race trending easily Rep. No Change.

19. FL-13: (Open – R) – Was #21 on RCP. Same problem as before, Democrat polls from a single polling firm showing huge leads for the Democrat and one public poll showing a real small lead. I am holding this one here because I think the polling on this one is really suspect.

22. CT-2: (Simmons – R) – No Change.

24. OH-2: (Schmidt – R) – Last time I predicted a shift to the Rep, and since then a poll has come out showing a big shift to the Rep. No Change

23. WA-8: (Reichert – R) – Was #25 on RPC list. No Change in standing.

26. FL-22: (Shaw – R) – Conflicting polls, but same result, no big shift. No Change.

27. OH-1: (Chabot – R) – No indication of shift towards dem.

New 24. VA-2: (Drake – R) – I am not sure where beyond #27 this race was last week but it popped up in the top 27 races so I will add to the Probable Rep category. Polls show a small rep lead, but this is Bush country and the bias correction would make this an easy Rep hold.

33. PA-8: (Fitzpatrick – R) – New: This was #23 on RCP list, but has dropped way down to #33. Moving this from Toss Up to Probable Rep.

Toss Up

4. IN-8: (Hostettler – R) – New: Last time I said this race was a lost cause, then a poll comes out showing Hostettler only down by 7. Since this is strong Bush country the bias correction is mandatory so that puts it into the -2 range, and now moved from Probable Dem to Toss Up.

8. OH-18: (Open – R) – No Change in standing.

17. NM-1: (Wilson – R) – New Was #17 on RCP list. Polls trending towards Wilson, with the last poll nearly within the margin of error and being a statistical tie. Moved from Probable Dem to Toss Up.

15. CT-4: (Shays – R) – New: I am about ready to move this to the probable Rep column, but will hold it here for now. Will assess again in the last assessment right before the election.

18. PA-6: (Gerlach – R) – No Change.

Probable Dem

2. AZ-8: (Open – R) – New: Against my predictions, the latest poll shows a shift towards the Dem, even in Bush country. That pushes this from Toss Up to Probable Dem.

11. IA-1: (Open – R) – Was #7 on RCP list.

16. OH-15: (Pryce – R) – This was #11 on RCP list.

10. NC-11: (Taylor – R) Was #14 on the RCP list. No Change – marginally in the Probable Dem category (no new polls since last post)

Special Factors

1. TX-22: (Open – R) – No Change. Goes Rep

3. FL-16: (Open – R) – No Change, remains Toss Up

5. PA-10: (Sherwood – R) – New I said last time if polls showed a move towards Sherwood I would move this to Toss Up because the District is so Republican it is hard to believe it would easily let Dems take over the house. The latest non-Democrat poll shows the race -9 for Sherwood. Applying the bias gives us -4 and momentum back towards the Rep. I am holding this in the Probable Dem, but it is on the verge of moving to Toss Up.

14. NY-26: (Reynolds – R) – New I said last time I would move this out of Toss Up if the polls moved towards Reynolds as I predicted they would. The polls moved toward Reynolds strongly, and RCP moved this from #9 to #14. Moved from Toss Up to Probable Rep.

7. PA-7: (Weldon – R) – New Was #13 on RCP list. I don’t trust the Democrat polls or the staying power of the ‘scandal’. Even if I bought into the polls I would apply the poll bias and still hold this in the Toss Up category. No Change in standing.

So where has a week brought us? We had 6 probable Dems with 7 toss ups last week. This week we have 5 probable Dems and 8 toss ups. We did move a few seats into the Rep Column (Reynolds and Fitzpatrick). So I do not see a trend towards the Dems, and just the opposite. Before it was 6-9 seats going Dem. Today it is 5-9 seats (since the toss up category is larger this round). I expect this to shrink further because there are 2 seats ready to go Probable Rep.

And that is without adding into the mix the Dem vulnerable seats. There is GA-12 where the Democrat is basically tied in a poll ou t Friday in heavy Bush country. That would drop the Dem opportunities to 4-8 seats. I think Dems could lose LA-3 as well. While I am not predicting the Dems cannot do better, the problem I see is their opportunities to take away are slipping away and they still have vulnerabilities out there. The generic ballots seems to be totally out of whach with the race by race numbers. So we shall see what happens next week, but I still think this is slipping away from the Dems.