A little over a week out let’s see where the Senate stands in terms of Democrat hopes they could gain control. Using the RCP race-by-race statistics, and applying the same 5% poll bias correction I did in the House Race analysis (explanation here), we see a picture slightly different from the one being trotted around the antique media. As before I am going to place the races, after the bias correction, into Probable Rep, Toss Up and Probable Dem categories. I apply the bias in all races at the state and national level (as opposed to clear republican House districts)

Probable Rep

4. MT: (Burns – R) – Burns is pulling back into the 3% down position which I have seen means a Democrat loss (which is why I started applying the poll bias correction to all my statewide and national elections). If Burns is only donw by 3 it should result in a 2% win. So I see this race as a Rep Hold.

5. MO: (Talent – R) – If it were not for a Mason Dixon poll that seems to be an outlier, this race would not really be in much doubt. Rep hold.

7. VA: (Allen – R) – There is no reason for this race to be even close in my mind. Webb has run a terrible campaign and Allen’s problems are all media hype. I detected the poll bias while watching polls verses results in VA. Allen is ahead by 1-2, which means he will win by 5 easily.

8. TN: (Open – R) – Just like VA, TN was always a pipedream race for the Dems. Corker is up 2, which tells me a 5% win is a conservative prediction.

9. MD: (Open – D) – If you take even the partisan polls and average the last three this race is at best 4% for Cardin. Applying the bias correction would result in a Steele win of 1%. Today Steele and Cardin debate at the NAACP, and that will be the end of Cardin. I believe Black Marylanders are telling pollster the party line (as they will anyone) but want Steele to win because he is also black. In a region that feels totally dominated by white leaders, the desire for Steele to represent blacks will trump party. I expect to see the polls trend towards Steele more.

Toss Up

3. RI: (Chafee – R) – Chaffey barely moved into the Toss Up category after I apply the poll bias correction and appears to be in the margin of error (minus the latest poll from some unknown [to me at least] oufit). This could easily move into the Probable Dem category because the momentum is neutral or towards Whitehouse.

6. NJ: (Menendez – D) – I hesitate to add the bias to any NJ race. It is so deep blue. But the trend is away from Menendez and the stain of the Democrat party is going to hold down the left’s interest in getting out to vote. I think this is Rep lick up, but will put it in the Toss Up category for now.

Probable Dem

1. PA: (Santorum – R) – Santorum has been at risk for a long time. If you average the last three polls he is trailing by 10. Even applying the bias correction only get him within 5%. Santorum needs to close this to 4% or less in the final polls to pull this out.

2. OH: (DeWine – R) – Dewine is in the same position as Santorum. He needs to to be within 4% to have a prayer.

The other races are so clearly staying with the incumbents it is not worth the effort to even discuss them. And that includes Lieberman’s cruise to re-election. So where does that leave us? 2 Dem Pick Ups, 2 Toss Ups and 1 Rep Pick up. If the Dems and Reps split the Toss Ups along Party lines (or trade them) that leaves a 1 Seat loss in the Senate. That would crush the Democrats because this was the cycle where most seats up for election were Rep seats. If the tides switch and the Dems pick up all the Toss Ups then make that a two seat pick up for the Dems. If the tide goes towards the reps there will be no change from today’s make up. As with the House the Democrats have really no chance of taking the Senate without a hidden tide out there. The race by race assessment shows no tide exists with Steele and Keane preparing to take two Democrat seats, and Independent Lieberman cruising easily against the anti Iraq war, anti incumbent, democrat primary winner.