Comments on: Poll Bias In Turnout Modelling

By: Snapple

Snapple — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 06:11:48 +0000

Well, we can speculate, but the only poll that counts is the election.

By: Stop The ACLU

Stop The ACLU — Mon, 30 Oct 2006 18:02:01 +0000

Race For Congress Tightens Up In Last Days…

It looks like it will be a nail biter for both sides once again. While some pundits have already written post-mortems for the GOP and many Conservatives have all but given up on retaining control of the House, it looks to be a close race as they appr…

By: az redneck

az redneck — Mon, 30 Oct 2006 17:34:07 +0000

Limerick: So many things have changed so rapidly, I don’t think that any comparison would be that predictive today.
That said, the Rassmussen polls have been close for the past 2 elections. RealClearPolitics has a running update that is an average of all recent polls. When RCP prints articles by either Barone or Jay Cost, they are usually worth while.
Electionprediction.com and CQPolitics.com are two other sites that use a variety of polls. Strategicvision.biz gives you the questions asked, which are always useful, though their coverage is not as complete.
If any were spot on, we wouldn’t need elections!

By: bRight & Early

bRight & Early — Mon, 30 Oct 2006 17:04:15 +0000

First Cup 10.30.06…

A mathematician is a machine for turning coffee into theorems. ~ Alfred Renyi

……

By: Limerick

Limerick — Mon, 30 Oct 2006 17:00:40 +0000

AJ,

Is there any ‘review’ of the polling firms as to their competence that we could access. With all the different polls the MSM quote all the time it would be nice to have something like a ‘handicap’ list of who’s who in the business and their track record. Any ideas of where you could point a poor uneducated red-neck pick-up driving Texan for a run down?

By: archtop

archtop — Mon, 30 Oct 2006 15:01:22 +0000

I think technology is also making the polls more unreliable, especially this year. Most organizations (as far as I know) still employ phone polls. But a large majority of people in the US have either caller ID on their land lines or have an ID system on their cell phones (I have both). If the caller is the infamous “unknown caller” or “out of area” I just don’t pick up, especially this time of year when everyone and their brother who’s running for office is trying to contact you. So, in my opinion, it is very difficult to get true statistically “random” sample upon which the poll’s accuracy lies. I chuckle to myself when read that a poll supposedly has a margin or error of +/- x% – How can they prove that about any particular poll? The percentage error relies almost entirely on obtaining a statistically significant “random” sample – and I think their “sampling” techniques leave a ** lot ** to be desired…