Nov 04 2006
Serious And Focused Verses Over Confident
Update: Never do a spreadsheet in a hurry. I had to correct the math somewhat, but the basic story is still the same for FL-13. End Update
More indicators showing up. Oak Leaf at Polipundit and Geraghty at TKS are showing a stunning set of early numbers in the FL-13 House Race.
Early voting:
Democrats: 9,309
Republicans: 12,115
Others: 4,710
Total: 26,134
Absentee ballots:
Democrats: 5,626
Republicans: 11,695
Others: 1,996
Total: 19,317
Assuming everyone votes party line we have a total of 45,451 votes. Of these 14,395 are Democrat votes, or 33%. The Reps are showing 52% of the votes. The indies represent 15% of the vote so far (we could just assume the split 50-50, but we won’t). Now, if you go to RCP for FL-13 you see how badly these polls could be off. The race is one of the top 40 races supposedly at risk, but the votes so far mimic the Bush-Kerry numbers in this district from 2004 (which were 56-43 for Bush). This means the voting is trending close to the historical numbers.
For why there is a difference look at the latest poll internals from RT Strategies/CD and you see a turnout model estimate of 41 Rep, 33 Dem and 25% Indie, with independents going heavily for the Democrat by 4 to 1. Even if we take the independents going 4-1 against the Reps (a huge leap) we should not assume the early voting is going to be that skewed away from the general population.
One should see some similarities between early/absentee voters and the general population they come from. The fact is these voters should truly be a random sample of the general population since they are simply voting early. I know reps lead these things sometimes, but if the Dem wave exists and their GOTV is somewhere on par with the reps then these early balloting efforts should not be that far off. But where the poll (which shows the Rep down by 2%) is 41-33-26 for R-D-I, the ballotting is showing 52-33-15. So does anyone think the Rep is down by 2 in this early voting?
If I use the pollster’s percentages and align them with the actual numbers we are seeing in the early voting it would show 53-47 52-44 for the Rep (corrected the math) instead of the 45-47 with the Dem in the lead. update – done rechecking the math here. So that would put the Rep up 6 8 (and also, incidentally, matches the Kerry-Bush numbers from 2004).
So let’s assume the pollster has the most favorable view for the Dem and the early voting is the best for the Rep. That gives us a range of -2 to +6 +8 for the Republican. Even if we use these two numbers to bound the possible outcomes, it shows very little chance of the dems taking the seat (2 out of 10 possible outcomes, or a 20% chance).
This is just one poll from one race, so no one should extrapolate out too much. But my point is that when pollsters attempt to determine turnout from the same sample that they want to determine results, they are coupling the data which is now not independent or random. Clearly the turnout model determines the results. And if the absentee voting trend is any indication, the polls in this district could be off by 8 points.
Which brings me to the point, and that is where I would rather be this weekend – over confident and believing in the absolute perfection of the polls and media hype, or in a serious and focused fight as the underdog pulling out all the stops to win. The liberal media and the liberal pols have been telling each other how great things are for them. So many on the left will not feel the urgency to go to the polls now that they have it ‘in the bag’. The media could lull the left into a relaxed mode and at the same time invigorate the conservatives. If this happens there will be an enormous surpise on Tuesday. One that will shake American politics for a long time.
Addendum: Just so no one get’s too confident, there are early voting numbers out of Memphis, TN that could spell problems for Corker – except that the levels being seen there mimic the 2000 Presidential election. Which did not go well for Tennessean Al Gore who lost his home state. Either way be mindful that no one probably has a handle on this election. Just get out and vote.
Addendum: To add to the confusion, a differing view on Tennessee. My main point still stands, these turnout numbers are in total conflict with the I believe the polls were assuming. My guess is pollster that adjust their turnout models accordingly this weekend will show a ‘last minute shift’, which will be more a correction on the polling than a change in the electorate.
Set your Tivo!!!
OT, but I hope you won’t mind. “Obsession†is on Fox News tonight at 8:00pm EST. A MUST see if there ever was one!
Carol
I have been scanning the comments on other lines….it is amazing how much power the media truly has in bending minds…..it is starting to sound like a wake……got my 4 day supply of Starbucks right here and my score card…..I’m betting on the good guys!…
Carol…wish I had Tivo!….out here in the sticks all I have are rabbit ears…probably the last pair in the country!
Polls smolls.
There’s something in the air, some smell, it’s like the smell you get in your ‘fridge when something goes off a bit. It’s the smell of the Republican Majority bereft of any ideas who is well past it’s use by date.
Rancid, smelly, limp, you name it; No matter how much the old fear campaign against something “New and improved” is used, the consumer ain’t buying more of the same old same old.
Maybe someone will come up with a New Contract with America from the Republican party for ’08, hard to say.
Limerick,
You need to get into the 21st century! Get DirecTV if you can afford it! We have it and I LOVE IT! DirecTV’s Tivo/DVR is AWESOME! You can set it to record every one of your favorite actors shows or movies!
It will work even out in the sticks! This ain’t 1960 anymore!
Steve,
Do you really think 3rd grade insults are going to impress anyone?
LOL! what you compensating for? I smell a serious case of insecurity there kid.
Steve, quit smelling your own farts.
AJ…
Ahhhh…sorry, no intent to insult you about the views on the polls.
Third grade, heck I got those from my High School kids….buda bing bada bum. But all respects to polls, there is a smell about the old GOP, and no poll is going to pick that up.
But serious now, I have gotten tired of the “Scare and Fear” campaign that is all the GOP is running on right now, I think the party offers up much much more. The banner of running under the “We Suck Less” is not one that I support.
As I type this, Newt is on FOX making sense, he’s putting forward a positive Republican position on the war, it’s very refreshing frankly and it’s not beating the Democrats over the head with “Cut and Run:. I keep hoping that after this election there will be a wakeup call in the party and maybe a swift kick in the arse. Who’s going to pick up on that kick and start leading with ideas, I have no clue.
Right now, I’d dearly love to see a New Contract with America, dealing with things that matter, like the line item veto, like a sensible immigration plan, like the one the President put forth. I’m not sure what those ideas will be, but ideas are what drove the party I changed to from the Democrats back in the late 70’s. There’s not a lot of ideas of late.
Ordi:
I know. I know. I liked the 1960’s comment….sorta true…..
I’m just not a TV watcher. Here and there. Not much. Had cable for awhile but the service and the cost didn’t thrill me any. Just a cheap ol codger, political junkie, shotgun across my lap, and a glass of buttermilk….ah…..thats the life!
Ordi……I don’t even own a cell phone………..yep those are cobwebs in my ears.
Steve,
Sorry – my bad. I misunderstood your point. Yes, we need more than sound bites. But the Reps have a good point about the Dems whistling past the grave of Islamo Fascism.
AJ
No worries.
Islamo Facism is problem, but the President and his team have not been what you call ether forthcoming on how we deal with that issue in detail, nor especially competent in their conduct of the war. The mime of “Stay the Course” wears thin without any real concrete plan for what that means along with an Iraqi government which is pretty ineffective. Couple that with outright refusal by the President to consider that a mistake may have been made in creating one Iraq instead of the “Three Little Iraq” model, leaves one wondering when being sure of a course of action is the a good thing, and not just stubbornness. Perhaps this is more of case of the famously poor communications skill of this White house, but it does give one pause.
Having said all that, I really don’t believe that all Democrats are loons, nor do I believe that the Mertha “cut and run” position will prevail in the Democratic party, one of the many points I tend to part company with from the more Red Meat denizens of places like Red State and other dispensers of true believer Flavor Aid. I’d rather not see Democrats be in the mix, but there has been a dearth of real dialog on this issue, at least from the current Republican majority, maybe this election will change things.
One thing is for sure, after the election it’s going to get real interesting.
Limerick
LOL
Oh please. The Democrats have nothing, NOTHING, to show for the past two years. They have done NOTHING of substance. All they have done is stand on the sidelines, point at the people actually on the field doing things, and make loud rude comments when the people on the field make mistakes. So the country is going to sack the people on the field over the mistakes, ignoring the work done so far, and put the bitching moaning kvetching do-nothings onto the field, when those very same do-nothings have already indicated that they intend to throw the game? I don’t think so.
Mid-Term ’06. Le ultime 48 ore /1…
Risultati contradditori nell’ultima ondata di sondaggi sul generic congressional ballot effettuati nel weekend. Time e Newsweek registrano un fortissimo vantaggio democratico (rispettivamente di 15 e 16 punti percentuali), mentre Pew Research (+4%), ….