Nov 05 2006
Democrats Still Hemoraging In Polls
Jim Geraghty at TKS has the news about the latest Pew Poll and another indication of ‘a shift’ from the Dems to the Reps (via Hotline):
Pew is out with their final pre-election poll and just like the ABC/Wash. Post poll, Pew shows Republicans with momentum. In the generic ballot, Dems lead by just 4 points. More importantly, the GOP has made significant cuts into the Dems once gigantic lead among indies.
Geraghty lets us know that the previous lead was 11 points – another lead cut by roughly 2/3rds. The next poll everyone is looking to see is the Gallup generic. But is it just too coincidental that these poll adjustments are showing up just as early voting and absentee ballot trends are being published? I do not believe these polls all of a sudden tighten up in the last 24 hours. Though I sure bet the drama these last minute shifts portend does help make polls more and more popular every election year. Did these folks just change their turnout models to something more accurate? BTW,I am planning a house and senate wrap-up post tomorrow, once most of the polls are out.
Update: Here is the Pew Poll results. First thing to note is trend lines, not absolute values. In Sept Dems had the lead 53-40 (+14). By Oct the Dems led 50-39 (+11). And now in Nov it is 47-43 (+4). This is a large sample so the margin of error is supposedly +/- 2%. That puts the last poll just about a statistical tie. The poll claims more GOP voters are engaged than before, and therefore more are likely to vote. In other words they changed their turn out model because more they were seeing more positive conservative voters. Not that more were all of sudden there. Just that they were able to contact more.
Another key element is there is a clear indication the Rep GOTV is still superior to the Dem GOTV effort. 64% of Reps report being contacted verses 54% of Democrats. Democrats lag even behind independents, which might be contacted by the Reps instead of by the Dems, since the Indies report 58% have been contacted. Hard to see Dems contacting more indepedendents than their own base.
Finally, the killer line. 47% of the GOP voters think the party will do about the same as before (win). 72% of the Dems believe they will do better than before. Which side do you think will fall harder on Tuesday when they fail to meet expectations?
18 Responses to “Democrats Still Hemoraging In Polls”
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Pew Research says you’re nuts.
Oh, no, actually they say you’re right.
Oh, doh, you saw that already. I just read your headline and the name Jim Geraghaty before clicking submit… at any rate, you’re right!
Comment on your update. I want to see leftists like this fall.
He’s commenting on the Saudi girl who was raped then sentenced to 90 lashes.
You gotta see it to believe it. But don’t try to understand it… unless you allow yourself to see this leftist as evil. Then it’s easy.
http://yargb.blogspot.com/2006/11/pew-joins-wapo.html
**** The Pew site is currently submerged. RCP has the results here. WaPo at 6 and Pew at 4. That’s a 12 point move since yesterday’s Newsweak poll and an 11 point move since yesterday’s TIME.
Was it something I said?
2nd UPDATE: Digging a little I found this RCP generic synopsis – note that just before the ‘04 election Pew showed the Reps -4 and the WaPo -6.
Boy! Is that a coincidence or what?****
I blame Karl Rove, the evil mastermind.
The picture I have in my head is of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown after promising him that she’d finally let him kick it.
Should be a real bummer Wednesday morning for the Donkeys.
clarice:
How about that? I will be a nail biter.
Zogby’s poll dance?
Posted On Lucianne.com today
Some time . . . when the team is up against it, when things are wrong and the breaks are beating the boys – tell them to go in there with all they’ve got and win just one for the Gipper. I don’t know where I’ll be then, but I’ll know about it, and I’ll be happy.
GET OUT AND VOTE FOR THE GIPPER!!!!
AJ,
A caller pointed out to Rush’s show that this happens before every election. Polling firms need to maintain credibility for future elections. They can skew the early pre-elections polls as often as they please, but unless they produce at least one pre-election poll accurately predicting the actual turnout… well, you heard of crying wolf, right?
So pollsters can have, say, Cardin leading Steele by a landslide all election season long, but by election’s eve suddenly Cardin and Steele are neck and neck. If Steele wins, pollsters will brag, “Well, Steele fell within the margin of error of our last poll. We called it right.” The hope is that the public will forget the seventy-eight previous polls that showed Cardin winning by a landslide.
Hey AJ what about Allen? Think he has a chance?
Terrye,
I have yet to give Webb any chance. Webb’s comments about women going into the military because they are horny has never died, and women make up the core of the NoVa democrat vote. And none of the ones I know have the stomach to pull the lever for Webb. The die hard dems I know are staying home.
This is my Prediction
2007-2009 Senate
GOP 55
Dem 43
Independants 2
2007-2009 House (+/-6)
GOP 225
DEM 210
Major News…
According to this article, the latest Pew Research poll confirms that this election just made a very, very sharp break toward the Republicans. I cannot access Pew right now – the server appears to be down. This is enormous news and shows an e…
Christoph,
Everybody says I’m nuts. Because I am!
Cheers, AJStrata
Pelosi knows something smells…..today she said she is sure of 15 seats, maybe 22………gee a couple of weeks ago it was 35. Of course she had to temper her remarks with the ‘we think the Republicans are gonna cheat BS…….sounds like she is gonna be hitting the Malox pretty hard.
Pelosi is saying that if they loose is because reps manipulated the election. I am glad she is back. The more she talks the more she motivates the rep base. She is so weird and wacked.
Now if we can only find Kerry….
OT…but the story made me ill…..as pro-life I couldn’t let this pass although I’m sure most here have seen the story on NewsMax; it is about infanticide…..
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/11/5/115209.shtml?s=ic
First Cup 11.06.06…
……