Nov 05 2006
Steele Will Win, Can Kean?
Another poll out shows why I think the Dems are in for a schocker on Tuesday. Trend lines are the key. Is the arrrow pointing up, pointing down (and most critically how steeply is it pointing) or flat. We have seen the trend line for Steele, and I am confident black democrats are not being honest with the pollsters. In a poll out today in NJ the trend line is the same as the Pew and WaPo polls: the Dem’s lead cut by two-thirds in 2 weeks:
Menendez leads Kean 45 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. According to the data, 3 percent plan to vote for another candidate, and 10 percent remain undecided. Two weeks ago, the same poll showed Menendez with a 9-point lead.
My full up analysis will still need to wait for all the late polls. But I see the Dems losing MD and now probably NJ. Will DeWine and Chafee come back to make this election cycle a once in a century historical event? Get out and vote to find out.
Update: I forgot about seeing this earlier, but that OH poll by Mason Dixon showing DeWine only down 6% was a poll of registered voters – not likely voters. That means it could be much closer since Likely Voters tend to add a point or two to the Republican column. And as we learned in OH in 2004, a good GOTV effort can add even more points. I would say this race may be tied.
AJ,
Looks like Steele went off on the Washington Post
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1732860/posts
their paper actually admitted anti GOP bias earlier today as well, as if we didn’t know already, right?
Aj,
I caught that on the Fox Show and I thought Chris Wallace was going to have a cow!
Not sense John McCain have we had someone on the National stage that has the “Big Ones” to poke the MSM right where they deserve it. Sense I’m out here in California, let me just say, enough “Grirly Men” Republicans, lets see some more fire in the belly.
I also like Steele’s response to the question on Iraq, he stated his views and made no apologies for holding them. We need more men like him in the Senate.
I think Menendez is a crook. But this Kean guy…..if you beleive in conservative values he is not your guy. The same with Chaffey. They both should be considered liberals and for that reason they had a problem motivating the Rep base. I know these are liberal states but they do have a lot of regular Reps in them.
Good Doctor,
The value in Kean and Chaffey is they vote in Rep Committee Chairs. That is sufficient for me.
I’m no fan of Menendez, given his ties to corrupt officials, unethical breaches, and the fact that he was an unelected Senator chosen by Corzine. However, I think he’ll still pull out NJ but for the simple fact that Democrats outnumber GOPers in NJ by a 2:1 margin.
That it is supposedly as close as it is, with Bill Clinton and other big name Dems coming in at the last minute to get out the vote, tells you all you need to know about the so called Blue Wave. It’s nonexistent.
That Kean isn’t a typical GOPer of the West/South mold isn’t surprising. They can’t do well in the more liberal northeast. By northeast standards, they’re as conservative as they come – and you can see it in the smear ads that the Democrats are running (whether the Menendez campaign or the DSCC ads).