Nov 05 2006
Gallup Sees Same Slide
The USA Today/Gallup poll just out gives the Reps a perfect trifecta in the polls as, again, a huge lead is cut. Today the Dems only enjoy a meager 7 percentage point lead over the Reps. A month ago it was a 23 point lead, and two weeks ago it was 13 points. Updating this in a few minutes.
A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.
Gallup and USA Today are spinning like whirling dervishes to claim this still indicated dems will take the house. We know the senate is out of their grasp. Truth is, their supporters are very fragile. They feel like this election is slipping away they will stay home in a temper tantrum fit. In fact, Gallup admits as well they have had to adjust their turnout models and dems appear less likely to vote than before and the GOP supposeldy surges (or is finally talking to pollsters)
What’s shifted is the determination of Republicans to vote. The Democratic advantage among registered voters was 11 points, but Republican voters were more likely to be judged as sure to go to the polls, making the edge among likely voters smaller.
A month ago, the Democratic margin among registered and likely voters was identical.
Granted, in 2004 the margin had shrunk to where Dems where only up by 1 point by election day. In 2002 Gallup had Dems up by 3 points. In both years the Dems lost seats. Clearly, though, there is no wave. The average performance in the 6th year of a President’s term is for his party to lose 6 Senate seats and something like 24 House seats. The Dems will be performing below average this year – again.
Update: One last observation about the Gallup sample pool. In the PEW poll out today we saw GOTV efforts hitting 54%-64% of their sample voters. In the Gallup poll their sample is only reporting GOTV contacts by 15% by one party, and 27% by both. That is a GOTV contact rate of 42%, well below the Pew numbers. Seems these folks are not getting the same random samples! The GOTV contact numbers should be very close if the samples were both random measurements of the same population.
31 Responses to “Gallup Sees Same Slide”
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Why won’t the dems just say we want out of Iraq, we don’t care the consequences, we want the money being spent on the war for programs here at home. This is their plan. If people can be fooled by the dems now we are in very big trouble. VOTE PLEASE
Kathie…..I’m driving old folks, and I know several friends who are too……..I just wish like hell I was in MD or OH………Get out the vote…get out the vote…get out the vote!
Three Major Generic Polls Show Momentum Shift Towards Republicans…
First there was the Washington Post/ABC News poll showing only a 6% lead for the dems! It was 14% in the last poll.
Next, the Pew Poll shows momentum towards Republicans.
Republicans were posting higher marks among likely voters on the question of…
Barone on H & C says he can’t be sure but this is looking more and more like 2004.
Actually, your post is half right. You are right that Gallup had the Democrats leading by one point in the generic ballot against the Republicans in 2004. In Gallup’s last poll before the election, the Democrats had 48% while the GOP had 47% among llikely voters.
However, in the 2002, the Republicans actually led the Democrats in the generic ballot by five points, 51% to 46%, among likely voters. The survey before that had the Democrats leading by three points among likely voters, 49% for them and 46% for the GOP.
Here’s the link for the 2002 election:
http://www.pollingreport.com/2002.htm
Talent got minority fire fighters endorsement after Bush was there, huge rally 11,000 people.
Clarice, it is actually looking worse than 2004. In 2004 the pollsters were faced with the fact they had serious problems. They blew it. And so they made corrections. As I have been alluding, my feeling is they broke it more instead of making corrections. Rasmussen is a classic example. What damn scientific evidence does he have that the drop off in the number of people calling themselves Reps was anything more than Reps not responding to him? None. They have relied on them for so long the idea their methodologies are totally busted frightened them and they did not fix a thing. You read it here first.
I registered just to say this. The polls never had this right, and certainly the MSM didnt.
This election cycle will go down in infamy for the medias total abuse of its power to try and push Democrats to power. This is an incredible journey, and the results on Tuesday will show that the power of the MSM has diminished greatly and will result in the ascendancy to the forefront of the power of the new media, from Rush to the center right blogosphere to just plain old folks like yours truly not allowing the media to influence their decisions, we the conservative people will finally score the knockout blow that the media has long deserved. No time to rest, its time to vote and show the media its monopoly has received the knockout blow it has been enticing us to deliver. The biggest loser will be the MSM. Its over!
Viva La Reagan Revolucion!
Sorta like ‘M-theory’, and ‘Qtheory’, and ‘The Theory of Everything’…..looks good on paper but where is the observation to back it up? Gobiligook!
“The Gallup poll is out; in two weeks, the Dem’s advantage on the generic ballot has narrowed from 13 points to 7 points.
Highlights:
“Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House,” says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive…
Pew Research Center survey released Sunday also showed that an 11-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot two weeks ago had narrowed to 4 points among likely voters. “It’s gone from a slam-dunk for Democrats to take the House to a pretty good chance,” says Andy Kohut, director of the center.
The survey of 1,362 likely voters, taken Thursday through Sunday, has a margin of error of 3 points.
The president and the war in Iraq remain at the center of this election: 36% of likely voters saying that are casting a ballot for a candidate to send a message that they oppose Bush; 20% to send a message that they support him.
What’s shifted is the determination of Republicans to vote. The Democratic advantage among registered voters was 11 points, but Republican voters were more likely to be judged as sure to go to the polls, making the edge among likely voters smaller.
A month ago, the Democratic margin among registered and likely voters was identical.
It’s not what Ken Mehlman would have liked to see in in the final Gallup poll, but it is a big shift in a two week period, and it suggests the GOP has the momentum. We will see whether that’s enough to keep control of the House and Senate.
http://tks.nationalreview.com/
Has the sample mix been changed, what is the sample mix??
Has anyone taken any demographics data to see who is less likely to have a home telephone? I no longer have a home phone so they aren’t going to get my opinion. When are they going to start doing targeted email polls? I would sign up for that. Send me a poll, give me a day or two to fill it out and send it back as my own time permits. Much better than calling me as I am draining the pasta. I don’t deal with any of that mess anymore … no telemarketers, no recorded GOTV messages, no pollsters, nothin. But I still vote.
I know all you guys have regular jobs and all, but is anyone live-blogging this election night? Since you guys are obviously in all different places, how about blogging about the races in your state? Just a thought. Has anyone set up an election central anywhere on the web? If other than this site can we get a link to it so we can check in all night for results?
For example, I know that Captain Ed and Powerline will be all over the races in Minnesota and maybe Wisconsin, etc. We got someone to cover Ohio, Missouri, California, Virginia, Florida, etc.? If no one is just dying to take Illinois, I will! Let me know how to get race results to you…i.e. via comments or e-mail.
Just a suggestion for what its worth.
Carol
Great question Carol!……as a stay at home and feed the critters kinda Texan I would love some place to go on Tuesday night!
Great idea Carol, I am in California and would be willing to help out. The “night shift” so to speak since I tend to be a night owl. I could commit to 1am Pacific time … that would be until 4am Eastern. I would imagine there are some morning people in the Eastern timezone that might be able to update stuff at 5 or 6 am which should give almost round-the-clock coverage.
Problem I have here is that Texas only has 22 in play…and that count won’t be available for days. Other then that if you need imput from the Lone Star State I would be glad to help.
EXCELLENT!!! AJ…your call. It sure beats biting your nails and watching endless talking heads on television…at least for me it is.
I planted bugs in a few ears elsewhere too just in case. I just hope its not too late to get something organized, but we’re supposed to be better at that sort of thing anyway, eh? Otherwise there will be links flying everywhere and tons of duplicate results I think. I don’t know…a weird idea perhaps but thought it worth a try.
Carol
Maybe all we need is one page with links to a site in each state that tends to have up to date information. Then all we do is create a table. So you click on a state and “click though” to the media or government site carrying the latest results for that state.
And you have running Senate and House totals on that main page just to get a “snapshot” view.
More like a link aggregator than anything else.
It’s worth remembering as well that a healthy majority, when asked whether their own rep should be returned, responds: yes. It’s mostly the other guy’s bum who should be thrown out.
That’s GREAT Crosspatch!! I wish I had thought of that. Can we do this AJ…or is it too late? It probably would be a pain to set up initially, but should be worth it if we get enough participation across the net.
WOW…Just WOW, Crosspatch! You rock!
Carol
Don Surber–the House polls are outdated..He sees D’s getting no more than 10 and perhaps picking up some.
http://donsurber.blogspot.com/
“I think there is a very good chance that undecided voters will break disproportionately towards the GOP in this race – especially in Congressional races. By common admission, the putative appeal of the Democrats is limited to essentially one issue: Discontent with progress in Iraq. It is worth noting that that discontent has not been enough to beach Senator Lieberman in his deep blue state, but such is supposedly the Democratic advantage.
But problems in Iraq have been absolutely pounded by the media for a long time now. The information is all out, and has been force-fed for weeks to virtually every voter. Anyone who is going to make a decision to vote one way or the other on the basis of that issue has almost certainly done so already. The rest of the major issues favor the GOP: nearly historic low unemployment, historic stock market highs, stabilized low interest rates, historic high home ownership rates, declining gas prices. Then, of course, there is Karl Rove’s famous “get-out-the-vote” machine, for which the Democrats have no real counterpart.
I therefore see the race likely sliding towards the GOP in the next three days, even as the mainstream media proclaim that the Democrats are “taking new territory” and “opening new fronts.” This race has some dynamics similar to those of the build-up to the 2004 Democratic Convention: The media played Kerry up prior to the Convention, just as the media have saturated the political marketplace with pro-Democratic Iraq negativism this time around. The result in 2004 was that the Democratic Convention itself could produce little or no “bounce” – in fact, Kerry may have experienced a “negative bounce” from his own Convention. Similarly, most new information and considerations entering the campaign and voters’ thinking in the next 3 days will probably of necessity favor the GOP because the Iraq issue has done all it can do already.”
http://musil.blogspot.com/2006_11_05_musil_archive.html#116274424477986068 (Much more about bad poll assumption–i.e. strength of Dem support–Jews conflcited, Blacks not happy , etc..
I am hoping for a huge landslide in favor for Shelley Sekula-Gibbs by end of Tuesday!
This poll is similar to the 2002 …
This is what Frank Newport wrote about the 2002 election on October 01, 2006:
In 2002, Gallup’s final generic ballot among registered voters – in the poll conducted Oct 31-Nov 3, 2002 – showed a 5 point- Democratic edge, 49%-44%. Among likely voters it was 51% to 45% Republican, for a difference in the gap between registered and likely voters of 11 points. The final national House vote in 2002 was 50.5% for the Republicans vs. 45.9% for the Democrats, a 5 point Republican advantage).
We gained two seats that year from 221 to 223 seats! Gallup was right then, wonder if its right now
Thanks Belkin for the correction!
Fox has all seats listed by state on their site. Maybe able to keep up with results that way.
I am in Hostettler’s district in Indiana and while Ellsworth’s people have been calling me and filling my mailbox with propaganda I have heard nary a word from Hostettler. What gives? Have the Republicans given up on IN8?
The plan didn’t work…
During the last two months several so-called setbacks failed to depress the evangelical right, one was the Foley incident, then the David Cho interview followed lately by the Haggard set up. All of these events, while not excusing the behavior or Fole…
The Trifecta…
Both AJ and Mickey Kaus note the USA Today poll that puts the generic Democrat edge at +7; that makes three polls in the final weekend that show a considerable tightening of the race…will it be enough? We’ll find out soon enough…
……
Terrye,
At RCP you can read up on Hostettleer. He doesn’t take PAC money and actually doesn’t do a lot of money campaigning. Therefore he is always underfunded. But he also gets elected!
Polling methods, as practiced today, have become obsolete. The first major polling organization to admit that fact and act on it will be far ahead of the others.